2024 United Rentals 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 5th, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: USA

Last week, Aric Almirola spoiled the opening race of the Xfinity Series playoffs by capturing a victory at Kansas Speedway. Almirola’s victory prevented the Xfinity Series’ playoff contenders from locking themselves into the next round of the playoffs and on Saturday the playoff picture could get even wilder when the green flag waves for the United Rentals 250 on the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway. While we await the excitement of the playoff drama to unfold on Saturday, let’s not forget that Talladega provides the opportunity for any driver to capture a victory and most importantly provides bettors the opportunity for a big payday!

So far this season, Austin Hill has won 3 of the 5 superspeedway races with two victories at Atlanta and also the season opener at Daytona. As everyone is aware, Hill has produced unparalleled performance results at the superspeedways winning 7 times in just the last 3 years. Obviously, Hill enters this Saturday as the overwhelming betting favorite given his dominance at this style of racing. However, it’s worth noting that Hill has never captured a victory at Talladega. In fact, Hill’s best finish at Talladega is 14th in 5 career starts despite starting from the pole in each of the last 3 races at Talladega. Therefore, I’m hopeful that Hill continues his winless streak at Talladega because there is absolutely no value in Hill’s current betting odds.

From a handicapping perspective, we know that these races at Talladega are very volatile and high-risk. We struck out in Friday’s Truck Series race and suffered minimal damage thanks to a sharp H2H win. As a result, I don’t have any plan to back off from the rest of this weekend’s races at Talladega across the Xfinity and Cup Series. After all, it only takes 1 big win to make our weekend and hopefully we can find lightning in a bottle at some point. For Saturday’s United Rentals 250, we will examine performance stats from the superspeedway races this season to establish our handicapping baseline. While previous performance trends do not guarantee any performance results on Saturday, it does help us identify the drivers that have consistently put themselves in a strong position to win these races. If we can pick the drivers that are in position for a win in the closing laps on Saturday, that is really all that we can ask for from a handicapping perspective!

Talladega – Quick Notes

• Jeb Burton leads all active Xfinity Series drivers with 2 career wins at Talladega.
• Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, and Jesse Love are also former winners at Talladega.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 10 straight races at Talladega going back to 2018.
• Austin Hill (5), Justin Allgaier, Aric Almirola, and Jeremy Clements also have superspeedway wins on their resume from Daytona and Atlanta venues.
• Jesse Love won the spring race at Talladega which was also his first career start at Talladega.
• Despite not winning, Austin Hill has led 182 laps in the last 4 races at Talladega..
• Sheldon Creed has a +100 average driver rating at Talladega over his last 3 starts which includes finishes of 2nd and 6th in his last two races at Talladega.
• Jeb Burton has two wins and 5 top 10 finishes in his last 7 races at Talladega.
• Parker Kligerman has finished 6th or better in the last 3 races at Talladega.
• AJ Allmendinger has produced top 3 finishes in 3 of the last 5 races at Talladega.

Superspeedway Loop Data

Since the Xfinity Series has competed at 5 different superspeedways this season, I thought it would be beneficial to compile loop data stats to show how teams/drivers have performed throughout the season at this style of racing which will help us identify potential betting targets. Without much surprise, Austin Hill has produced a triple digit average rating. In fact, Hill has produced an exact 100.0 average driver rating through 5 superspeedway races this season which have also produced 3 victories. However, teammate Jesse Love and Riley Herbst have surprisingly produced slightly better average ratings throughout the season and have the highest average running position among all competitors which should be something that bettors strongly consider.

Behind those names, we have also witnessed solid results from the likes of Parker Kligerman, Chandler Smith, and a few others. Perhaps the bigger surprises surround the lackluster trends from the likes of Brandon Jones, Jeb Burton, and Sam Mayer. As mentioned earlier, Burton has been extremely good at the superspeedway races especially at Talladega. However, Burton’s performance trends through the season at these venues have been relatively poor. Meanwhile, both Jones and Mayer are piloting J.R. Motorsports equipment who have a long history of success at these superspeedway races. However, both Jones and Mayer have also produced very poor results which is somewhat surprising as we approach Saturday’s United Rentals 250.

*Data reflects Xfinity Series superspeedway races in 2024 (Daytona, Atlanta, Talladega, Daytona, Atlanta)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Jesse Love	102.2	2.0	10.2	12.0	8.0	-24	24	242	678
Riley Herbst	100.3	8.0	8.0	10.6	7.6	18	14	22	672
Austin Hill	100.0	2.2	12.6	9.6	12.2	64	19	64	655
Parker Kligerman	95.9	8.0	12.4	15.6	10.8	49	7	11	668
Chandler Smith	94.3	9.4	11.4	7.6	9.0	-11	24	47	677
Cole Custer	91.5	9.8	12.4	20.4	11.6	-9	18	37	633
A.J. Allmendinger	91.1	6.6	7.0	13.8	10.0	13	21	86	678
Sheldon Creed	91.1	9.2	10.6	9.0	11.2	13	15	3	675
Ryan Truex	89.6	9.4	9.4	15.0	10.4	-5	13	29	619
Justin Allgaier	88.9	10.4	14.0	22.2	13.4	59	18	42	559
Sammy Smith	84.2	14.8	5.8	16.8	13.2	72	11	8	677
Brandon Jones	82.9	19.4	8.2	17.4	14.8	41	17	4	619
Anthony Alfredo	82.1	12.0	17.4	14.8	17.0	43	15	6	675
Shane Van Gisbergen	78.2	13.4	11.2	17.8	17.2	39	20	1	671
Parker Retzlaff	73.1	17.2	18.0	16.8	18.4	-1	8	0	641
Ryan Sieg	70.1	23.0	16.6	19.6	16.4	14	28	19	657
Jeb Burton	70.0	23.4	11.6	19.8	17.4	60	11	8	673
Sam Mayer	66.7	17.0	22.2	26.4	22.0	6	32	7	435
Jeremy Clements	66.2	20.2	21.8	25.2	22.2	39	12	0	593
Josh Williams	61.1	13.8	26.8	22.0	22.0	-18	12	0	585
Brennan Poole	61.0	29.4	24.6	15.0	22.6	-31	8	0	676
Blaine Perkins	60.3	28.2	21.0	20.0	20.8	-16	8	0	674
Kyle Weatherman	57.8	23.4	25.8	20.6	22.6	33	8	0	575
Leland Honeyman	57.4	29.4	24.6	16.2	24.0	-44	12	1	658
Jordan Anderson	55.3	31.0	17.0	19.8	25.0	7	19	7	431
Kyle Sieg	51.2	28.3	28.0	20.0	25.5	-48	3	1	553
Patrick Emerling	49.7	21.3	23.3	25.0	25.8	-48	7	0	498
Ryan Ellis	43.5	35.4	30.0	24.0	28.8	-31	1	11	574
Dawson Cram	30.5	31.3	34.8	31.8	32.0	-36	1	0	355

Betting Targets

As I alluded to earlier in this preview, there is simply not any value in betting Austin Hill at less than 3-1 odds. While Hill deserves his favorite status and has arguably been one of the greatest superspeedway talents in Xfinity Series history, I simply cannot justify taking Hill at those odds especially at a place like Talladega where it is much harder to control the field at the front of the pack. Behind Hill, we have much better options in terms of betting value. Personally, I would like to have Jesse Love on my betting card but I may have to wait to see if his odds get better after qualifying. For immediate betting consideration, Parker Kligerman, Aric Almirola, Sheldon Creed, and Riley Herbst have all produced the performance trends and showcased their superspeedway talent enough to warrant consideration at their current betting odds. Creed and Herbst have fairly favorable odds and I am locking both in prior to Saturday’s early qualifying session.

In the spring race, we hit a big prop bet 14-1 prop bet winner with Brennan Poole finishing inside the Top 5. For deep prop bet opportunities for Saturday’s United Rentals 250, Parker Retzlaff, Dean Thompson, and Brennan Poole are all on my radar. I am a fan of Thompson’s talent and he steps into decent equipment for a part-time start with Sam Hunt Racing. Meanwhile, Retzlaff and Poole just seem to have a knack for staying out of trouble and being around at the end of these races. As a result, we can consider those drivers in low-risk/high-yield formats if the odds are sufficient. I would put Ryan Sieg and Carson Kvapil in the prop bet category as well but they have much more conservative betting odds. We need prop bets to have strong ROI and Sieg/Kvapil do not have high enough return for current prop bets. However, Sieg and Kvapil may be potential dark horse candidates for the outright win and perhaps worthy of consideration in futures (win) formats.

2024 United Rentals 250 Optimal Lineup

2024 United Rentals 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Aric Almirola +1400 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1600 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +1800 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2000 (.5 unit)
Carson Kvapil +2800 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Sieg -110 over Sammy Smith (2 units)
Dean Thompson +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kyle Weatherman +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Jesse Love +650 wins United Rentals 250
Toyota +340 wins Yellawood 500
Risking .5 unit to win: +1600