2024 TSport 200 Race Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday July 19th, 2024. 8:30PM (EST)
Where: Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park
TV: FS1
Just two races remain in the Craftsman Truck Series’ regular season before the playoffs begin next month in Milwaukee. While the Truck Series Championship appears to be a two-horse race between Corey Heim and Christian Eckes who have combined for 8 victories already this season, the playoff picture is still unsettled and these next two races will be very important towards deciding the playoff contenders who will hope to make a championship run over the next several weeks.
On Friday, the Truck Series returns to Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park, commonly referred to as IRP. IRP is a small .686 mile short track that sits about 7 miles northwest of Indianapolis Motor Speedway where the Xfinity and Cup Series will compete on Saturday and Sunday. The track features a very flat surface and is very rough on tires. Drivers will be faced with the difficulty of trying to maintain fast corner speeds on a very flat and low-grip surface that produces close quarters racing. The Truck Series previously raced at IRP annually from 1995 through 2011 but just recently returned to the historic venue for the last two seasons.
Grant Enfinger won the initial return to IRP in 2022 in a race that produced chaos with 10 cautions. Last year, Ty Majeski dominated the TSport 200 by leading 179 of 200 laps en route to victory. On Friday, both drivers will be in competition again with the hopes of another trip to victory lane. While Enfinger and Majeski are former winners, Corey Heim remains the weekly betting favorite due to his dominance throughout the season. Heim has won 3 of the last 5 races and has been very strong on the short tracks throughout his Truck Series career. While Heim remains the guy to beat going into Friday’s on-track activities, I would like to turn our focus to drivers that are also worthy of betting consideration.
Handicapping IRP
While the Truck Series features a lot of aero racing at the bigger ovals, the short tracks are usually where the driver’s talent shines and perhaps where the driver can often outrun other competitors who may have an advantage in raw speed. To simplify this from a handicapping perspective, we should put value in talent over equipment and rely on the drivers that have always performed well at short tracks in the Truck Series.
I believe bettors can look at results from North Wilkesboro, back in May, as a reliable track comparison. While IRP is flatter and has some differences, I believe North Wilkesboro is worthy of comparison due to the driving style needed to turn fast laps. Both tracks are relatively flat and drivers have to muscle their way through the turns while trying to keep the rear of the truck under control. Therefore, I think North Wilkesboro is one of the few races this season that can stand as a reference point in the overall handicapping equation. As a result, we will put emphasis towards prior track history at IRP, North Wilkesboro observations, and also consider short track resumes as we look to find drivers that could yield betting value!
Part-Time Driver Quick Notes
Aside from the Truck Series regulars, Ross Chastain (Cup), Sammy Smith (Xfinity), Johnny Sauter (former CTS Champion), and others are filling part-time roles this weekend to provide some variety to the entry list. Chastain only has 1 Truck Series start at IRP which came way back in 2011 with a 10th place finish driving for Stacy Compton. Normally, I don’t consider Chastain a top threat in the Truck Series mainly because Niece Motorsports has not shown tremendous speed. However, this is the type of track, with heavy tire wear, where Chastain can outrun the equipment. Not to mention, Chastain picked up a win earlier this year at Darlington which is another high tire-wear venue.
Sammy Smith is another driver that does not typically scream for betting attention in the Truck Series. After all, Smith is making just his 4th career start in the Truck Series this weekend. However, the full-time Xfinity Series driver did drive the same #7 truck to a 5th place finish back at North Wilkesboro earlier this year. Therefore, perhaps Sammy Smith has some appeal possibly more so in H2H formats. Other part-time drivers include well-known Marco Andretti, Johnny Sauter, William Sawalich, and a few others. In my opinion, Sawalich is the only driver in that secondary group that may have enough upside for fantasy/H2H purposes. Sawalich skill set is geared around short tracks and he will be piloting strong equipment with the #1 at TRICON Garage.
Betting Targets
While Corey Heim is rightfully listed as the betting favorite, I was hoping to get some extra value on Ty Majeski this week due to Heim’s dominance. Unfortunately, Majeski’s betting odds are very conservative which is likely a good move from odds makers. Majeski has led the most laps in each of the last two races at IRP and he is one of my favorite H2H targets among the top guys. I’m just disappointed at his value for the outright win. For that reason, I may wait to see if Majeski’s odds get better after today’s sessions.
Perhaps drivers that warrant betting consideration prior to today’s on-track activities include the likes of Grant Enfinger and Ross Chastain who are receiving rather generous odds. Enfinger won the 2022 race at IRP and the #9 team appear to be getting better each week, evident by last week’s runner-up finish at Pocono. Meanwhile, Chastain falls into the category where the driver is much better than the equipment and has the talent to get the job done. At 20-1 odds, Chastain can be considered in-play perhaps in a low-risk/high-reward sized wager.
Deeper into the field, I believe the level of risk and consistency comes into play. As a result, bettors may want strong conviction in today’s practice and qualifying sessions before pulling the trigger on dark horses for betting and fantasy purposes. Among the drivers that I will be watching for potential prop bets or H2H purposes includes the likes of William Sawalich, Layne Riggs, and Matt Crafton. Crafton is simply a prop bet flier due to the fact he is listed at 100-1 odds and I believe his ceiling is much higher than suggested. Though I am not personally a fan of Riggs, he did have one of the best performances of his career in last year’s race at IRP. Meanwhile, IRP is the perfect style of track for Sawalich to show his skill set and he performed well in last year’s race which was his 1st career start.
2024 TSport 200 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Ty Majeski +250 (2 units)
Grant Enfinger +1500 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Grant Enfinger +100 over Nick Sanchez (2 units)
Ty Majeski -135 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
