2024 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 29th, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FS1
NASCAR’s top two racing series will be in action this weekend at Richmond Raceway. While the Cup Series will take center stage Sunday night for the running of the Toyota Owners 400, the Xfinity Series will step into the early afternoon spotlight on Saturday for the running of the ToyotaCare 250. So far this season, the only Xfinity Series regulars to capture victories originate from the duo of Austin Hill (Daytona/Atlanta) and Chandler Smith (Phoenix). Luckily for the Xfinity Series regulars, Saturday’s entry list lacks the appearance of the big name Cup Series drivers and perhaps that opens the opportunity for a new first time (season) winner!
Before we jump into expectations and thoughts, I would first point out that this preview is being prepared prior to Saturday’s on-track sessions which will start early Saturday morning. I will have a section below dedicated to practice observations which will be updated after tomorrow’s on-track activities. For now, the basis of our betting expectations will be based around current momentum, track style, and historical narratives which are usually the ideal handicapping components for a venue like Richmond. While some of these narratives may change slightly with practice observations, I don’t want our betting picks to be influenced solely by practice observations which often-times are misleading.
With that being said, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, and Chandler Smith are the only drivers with former Richmond victories on their resume going into the weekend. Allgaier has historically been strong at Richmond and swept both races during the 2020 season. Cole Custer hit pay dirt at Richmond back in 2019 which remains his only win in 8 career Xfinity Series starts at the ¾ mile D-shaped oval. Meanwhile, Chandler Smith is the defending winner of the ToyotaCare 250 which remains Smith’s only start in the Xfinity Series at Richmond Raceway. As many are aware, Smith has started off the 2024 season impressively in the Joe Gibbs Racing #81 car and has been among the fastest cars over the last several weeks. Those factors alone combined with Smith’s defending win will have him at the top of everyone’s radar going into the weekend.
Betting Notes and Strategy
Personally, I have always enjoyed handicapping Richmond Raceway because this is a place where race speed is much different from single lap speed which is again why I typically stay away from putting too much credit towards practice observations. At Richmond, tire wear is significant and those drivers that do not know how to manage tires will be in trouble after about 20 laps. As a result, we can usually rely on historical trends to provide a pretty solid foundation towards our expectations this week especially with the guys that consistently find the front of the field at Richmond. For these reasons, we will be sort of aggressive with our race picks this week. This will not be one of those races where we elect better betting “value” in terms of odds and will simply lay our wagers on the best drivers at this style of short-track racing.
Betting Targets
While Chandler Smith and Justin Allgaier are easily the best drivers at Richmond on paper, I think Smith may have a bigger advantage based on current momentum and the fact he is driving for one of the best teams in the series. The #81 team has been fast everywhere and that is a scary combination going into Saturday’s sessions. Smith is currently the outright betting favorite but I would not be surprised if his odds get even worse closer to race time. Meanwhile, Allgaier is a potential “wait and see” betting option. I really like Allgaier’s skill set at Richmond which always seems to progress throughout the race. However, bettors may be able to get better betting value by taking a chance and waiting until after qualifying. Despite Allgaier’s performance at Richmond, he actually does not always qualify well and that could provide opportunities for better betting odds closer to race time.
Aside from the top two guys, there are a group of drivers that I will be keeping a close eye on going into Saturday’s sessions which includes Cole Custer, Riley Herbst, Sheldon Creed, and perhaps Jesse Love due to his 2nd place finish at Phoenix just a few weeks ago which is a very similar track style. Custer is a former Richmond winner and definitely has the talent to win again. However, Custer has been relatively inconsistent at Richmond with just two top 5 finishes in 8 career starts. Riley Herbst is the driver that I am anxious to target in all formats. Herbst has raced very well at Richmond throughout his career and has a much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Herbst may provide more value in H2H situations but a winning ceiling is not out of the question.
Meanwhile, Sheldon Creed and Jesse Love are guys that have flashed potential at these low-grip race tracks which speaks to their wheelmen driving style. While Creed’s performances seem to always be inconsistent from a week to week basis, Love may have more solid H2H potential based on his start to the season and ability to find speed when grip conditions fade. If you want even deeper flier options to help in fantasy formats or potential low-tier H2H match-ups, I have been impressed with both Ryan Sieg and Parker Retzlaff in recent races at similar track styles. Both drivers have top 10 upside and could produce value in fantasy and/or H2H formats.
Practice Observations and Final Thoughts
Update: Practice and qualifying just wrapped up at Richmond Raceway with a surprise name at the top of the charts. Parker Retzlaff earned his first career pole with a lap time of 22.420 which was nearly a full tenth over the field. Retzlaff was on my fantasy watch list going into today and perhaps he will have a chance to compete at the front of the field all afternoon. With that being said, I would not put too much vested interest into single lap qualifying times. We saw names like Bubba Pollard, Josh Williams, and Kyle Weatherman on top of the charts in practice. Those fast lap times were just a product of early morning track conditions. As stated in our preview, the real speed will show up after about 20 laps of green flag racing later today.
If we exclude the single lap observations and put focus towards lap averages, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer were among the names that were the best in practice. Both drivers had impressive lap times that nearly mirrored each other. Allgaier is not usually one of those drivers that practices really well so that could suggest he is even better than the practice times suggest. Chandler Smith was also among the better cars which is good for our early picks status. However, Riley Herbst was not quite as good as expected and had a disappointing qualifying effort. I still expect Herbst to drive forward today but I was hoping he would be much stronger earlier in the runs.
Among the names that I though really impressed and could immediately jump into H2H betting consideration include the likes of Brandon Jones and Taylor Gray. Jones appeared to have really strong speed and perhaps even warrants winning consideration. Personally, I hate placing money on Jones because he consistently under-performs from a driver perspective but I can’t deny the speed the #9 car has shown thus far this weekend. Meanwhile, Taylor Gray is in the #19 for Joe Gibbs Racing in his first career start. The young driver was impressive in the lap averages category. Following a disappointing qualifying effort, he is another driver that should move forward and potentially produce value in H2H match-ups.
2024 ToyotaCare 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Chandler Smith +300 (1.5 units)
Riley Herbst +1500 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1600 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Chandler Smith -145 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Ryan Sieg +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
