2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 9th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing in Wine Country on Sunday for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. As many are aware, Sonoma Raceway has long been a placeholder on the Cup Series schedule despite the fact that several new road course venues have been added to the schedule in recent years. However, Sunday’s return to Sonoma Raceway will have a somewhat different feel following the raceway’s repave over the offseason. As a result, the 1.990 mile venue has more grip and is producing unprecedented speeds which will surely make things entertaining on Sunday!

Unlike the Xfinity Series which has competed at road course venues for consecutive weeks, Sunday’s Toyota Save Mart 350 will be just the 2nd road course race of the season and the first since Circuit of the Americas (COTA) back in March. In that race, William Byron earned his 2nd career win on a road course by outdueling Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs in the closing laps. However, Sonoma Raceway is a different style of road course compared to COTA. Unlike some of the other road course venues on the Cup Series schedule, Sonoma is composed of many sweeping turns with only a couple of heavy braking zones. As a result, Sonoma is as much about car control and apexing the corners as it is about trying to out-brake competitors and beat them back to the throttle.

From a handicapping perspective, Sonoma Raceway has traditionally yielded familiar names at the front of the pack. Last year, Martin Truex Jr won his 3rd race at Sonoma in the last 5 years. Truex has been incredible at Sonoma with 4 career wins in total, the bulk of which has come in the last few years along with dominating statistics that we will discuss later. With that being said, these road course races in general are still very difficult to dominate with today’s car and rules package. While we will rely heavily on past trends, we must also discuss on-track activities over the last two days before finalizing any of our betting predictions!

Sonoma Road Course Notes

• Martin Truex Jr leads all drivers with 4 career wins at Sonoma, 3 wins over the last 5 races.
• Kyle Busch (2), Kyle Larson, and Daniel Suarez are the only other former winners at Sonoma.
• Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Elliott, and Chris Buescher have each averaged a 100+ average driver rating over the last 3 races at Sonoma.
• Chris Buescher has finished 2nd and 4th in two starts at Sonoma with the Next Gen Car.
• Chase Elliott leads all active drivers with 7 career wins, ranking 3rd all-time, but has never won at Sonoma.
• Tyler Reddick has the most wins (3) at road courses in the Next Gen Car.
• Brad Keselowski has just 1 finish inside the top 10 in 13 career starts at Sonoma.
• Despite being a notorious road course specialist, AJ Allmendinger has never posted a top 5 finish in 12 career starts at Sonoma.
• Denny Hamlin has just 1 top 10 finish in the last 12 road course races.
• The eventual race winner has started inside the top 15 positions in 32 of 34 races at Sonoma, including 6 winners from the pole position.

Dynamic Averages

As we prepare for tomorrow’s Toyota Save Mart 350, it’s always important to look back at the dynamic averages at the road courses which feature the last 5 road course events. As you will see, William Byron has surprisingly climbed into the top spot with an impressive 110.3 average driver rating. Behind Byron, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and AJ Allmendinger have all posted 100+ average driver ratings. Personally, I am keeping my eyes on the Toyota drivers in that list (Bell, Reddick, and Gibbs) because they have been very strong in recent weeks and for most of the season.

As we continue to look at our road course dynamic averages holistically, I would point to Martin Truex Jr (82.2), Joey Logano (76.2), Daniel Suarez (74.4), and Brad Keselowski (54.8) as the drivers who have numbers that are significantly lower than most anyone would expect. While I understand Keselowski is not exactly known for his road course skills, his 54.8 average rating is the 6th worst rating in the entire field. Meanwhile Suarez, who won this race in 2022 in the debut of the Next Gen Car, has also consistently failed to repeat success at the road courses. While these dynamic averages do not guarantee a continuance of trends, they should be considered as a reliable handicapping tool going into Sunday’s race at Sonoma!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

In somewhat unorthodox fashion, the Cup Series practiced on Friday and qualified earlier today (Saturday) this weekend. Once qualifying had ended, Joey Logano stood as the fastest man in town with a fast lap of 97.771mph for his 3rd pole of the season. While Team Penske has struggled through the majority of the season, they were very fast last week at Gateway which was evident by Austin Cindric’s victory and Blaney’s near victory. I bring that up because it appears that the Fords from Team Penske have found speed in recent weeks. Behind Logano, teammate Ryan Blaney also clocked in the 3rd position and perhaps this is something to monitor as we move forward.

In practice on Friday, the Team Penske speed was also on display with Ryan Blaney posting the fastest lap of the session. Though some of the top speeds were from cars that elected to change tires late, I did watch practice closely from a lap times perspective and Blaney was strong throughout the entire practice. Other drivers that I thought were also impressive included Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick. Chastain’s name may be the biggest surprise on that list but most people forget that he is a really solid road course talent. Chastain simply has not been consistent on the road courses and I attribute that more towards a team/equipment struggle. However, it appears Chastain is trending in the right direction going into the weekend. Other observations include guys that did not impress on Friday which included a group of names that are centered around Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr who all appeared to be “off” on the stopwatch.

Betting Targets

There are a lot of very talented and big name drivers starting at the front of this field on Sunday and betting odds have shifted in a very conservative manner following Saturday’s qualifying session. Kyle Larson is currently the outright favorite and while I don’t disagree with that sentiment, I just can’t fathom backing the 4-1 betting odds considering his win rate at the road courses. Personally, I believe Tyler Reddick is the guy, amongst the favorites, that I like the most. Reddick almost got faster as the laps were laid down and I think that trend line is dangerous for the sport’s best road course driver in the Next Gen Car. As a result, I would put Reddick at the top of my handicapping list going into Sunday.

Behind Reddick, I think most of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers are overvalued going into Sunday. I’m not saying those drivers are not a legitimate threat to contend but there simply is not any value from a betting perspective. Behind those names, I think it becomes a guessing game to some extent and perhaps the best strategy is to chase value. Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain, and even Martin Truex Jr are among the names that are spewing value. I know Truex has not looked good throughout the weekend; however he is getting great value and is one of the best drivers in history at Sonoma. As a result, those guys are at the core of my betting lineup for drivers with the best value to win on Sunday.

I’m not truly confident in many long shots on Sunday and historically road courses do not favor dark horses. With that being said, I do think there are some drivers that are undervalued going into Sunday who could yield value in both H2H match-ups and prop bet formats. Currently, Kyle Busch is among the names that top my list for potential prop bets. While Busch and the #8 team have been struggling in a big way, Busch has been incredible at Sonoma finishing in the top 5 in 6 of the last 8 races. While I realize Busch’s ceiling may not be the same this weekend, he is far better than the 66-1 odds he is currently receiving. Meanwhile, Will Brown and Chris Buescher are also names that appear to be severely undervalued from an odds perspective. For those not aware, Brown is an Australian SuperCars driver that is making his first start this weekend and he has looked pretty damn decent all weekend. While I don’t expect an SVG Cinderella Story for Brown, he is also much better than current betting odds suggests.

Draftkings Toyota Save Mart 350 Optimal Lineup

2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +650 (1 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1200 (.75 units)
Martin Truex Jr +1600 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1800 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -145 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -115 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Kyle Busch -115 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -105 over Michael McDowell (2 units)