2024 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 30th, 2024. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR will celebrate Easter weekend with night racing at Richmond Raceway for the running of the Toyota Owners 400 which will drop the green flag shortly after 7:00pm (EST). In recent weeks, we have seen better racing from the short-tracks due to rules changes which debuted at Phoenix and an unexpected tire dilemma which took place at Bristol. For Sunday night’s Toyota Owners 400, NASCAR will have the opportunity to build on their short-track momentum at a racetrack, in Richmond Raceway, that rarely disappoints. As we hope for more exciting short-track racing, our focus shifts towards finding the best betting opportunities in an attempt to sweep the weekend following a successful betting card in Saturday’s ToyotaCare 250.

As we prepare for another short-track race, I should probably touch on a couple of things that will impact how we handicap tomorrow’s Toyota Owners 400. To start, GoodYear has brought a different tire this week which is expected to increase the tire wear. Richmond Raceway is already one of the few venues in the Cup Series that has significant tire wear and we will likely see teams electing to get 4 tires with every opportunity. With that being said, I would not expect the complete tire failures that we witnessed throughout the race weekend at Bristol. I personally believe that was a perfect storm of conditions with the concrete, the track, and the tire code. Still, we should expect drivers that historically perform well at low-grip/high wear venues to be among the front-runners again on Sunday.

Another item that is worth noting is the fact the new short-track rules package will return for the first-time since Phoenix. This new rules package has only been used at Phoenix this season and while the racing product was not significantly different, drivers did admit to the cars being slightly tougher to drive. In the race at Phoenix (and even at Bristol), the Toyota teams were extremely strong and I would even say the Toyota teams have been the best at the start of the 2024 season. At Phoenix specifically, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin all led a minimum of 50 laps in a mere 312 lap race with Bell eventually emerging as the race winner. Needless to say, the Toyota teams and drivers should be at the top of everyone’s betting radar.

Handicapping Strategy

I mentioned in this week’s Xfinity Series preview that I am typically aggressive at Richmond Raceway because it is one of those venues where the best drivers usually prevail. For that reason, we can usually avoid equipment/setup concerns and just put our focus on the best drivers to identify betting opportunities. I believe that is the best strategy for a place like Richmond and that will be the game plan again on Sunday. However, I may be slightly more cautious than anticipated simply because lap times were extremely close among numerous drivers in practice on Saturday. There were literally 10-12 drivers within a tenth of a second of each other on the 20 lap averages chart which makes me believe track position could be more important than we expect especially if those lap times remain so close to each other among the leaders.

Practice Observations

As we jump into practice observations, let me first state that if you look at the speed charts then you will notice a lot of different observations based solely off single lap speeds. The single lap times were greatly influenced by the split groups on Saturday because the opening group (A) took advantage of cooler track conditions which yielded the faster single lap speeds. My observations are simply based on raw data and lap averages. With that being said, I thought Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs, and Ryan Blaney were all extremely close together as the fastest group (A) of the split practice session. For the second group (B) which competed on less favorable track conditions, I thought Joey Logano was heads and shoulders better than the others in the group. Logano was really impressive despite the fact the #22 team has struggled in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace and Michael McDowell were among the guys that seemed to be solid as well.

Overall these practice observations likely yield minimal value to our handicapping expectations. As stated in the Xfinity Series preview, practice observations are often-times misleading at Richmond and should rarely change our handicapping expectations aside from the extreme outliers. In qualifying, that narrative unfolded in front of our eyes with Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott earning the top two spots. The top two were followed by Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Todd Gilliland, Martin Truex Jr, and others. Guys like Elliott, Truex, Chastain, and Gilliland did not necessarily have impressive lap times in practice but that just proves that practice observations are often just that, practice.

Betting Notes – Richmond

For tomorrow’s Toyota Owners 400, I would take a glance at our short track dynamic averages which highlights performance trends from the last 5 races at short tracks. This particular data set should give everyone an idea of those teams/drivers that have some momentum on the short tracks. From there, we have to give a big consideration to historical trends. Richmond requires a unique driving style and tire conservation which is why similar names often emerge at the front of the field. In fact, I would put the historical trends narrative at the top of our handicapping focal points.

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 wins at Richmond Raceway.
• Denny Hamlin (4), Martin Truex Jr (3), Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson (2), Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher are the only other former winners at Richmond.
• Martin Truex Jr’s 3 wins have come in the last 9 races at Richmond. Truex also has a lucrative 4.1 average finishing position over his last 10 starts at Richmond.
• Christopher Bell has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin won the first race (2022) at Richmond in the Next Gen Car and has finished in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races.
• Joey Logano has finished 7th or better in 6 of his last 7 starts at Richmond.
• Austin Dillon has posted a 10.6 average finishing position over his last 10 starts at Richmond which is among his best tracks.
• Ryan Blaney has never recorded a top 5 finish in 15 career starts at Richmond.
• Bubba Wallace has a 22.3 average finishing position at Richmond and has never recorded a top 10 finish in 11 career starts.
• Michael McDowell has just one top 20 finish in his last 11 starts at Richmond.
• Toyota drivers have won 6 of the last 11 races at Richmond.
• There have been 5 cautions or less in 9 of the last 10 races at Richmond.

Betting Targets

Personally, I believe qualifying shook some things up on Saturday. The Hendrick Motorsports cars qualified very well and the cars (Toyotas) that everyone expected to be the favorites, did not qualify nearly as well. With that being said, I am still favoring the Toyotas going into Sunday despite some disadvantageous starting positions most notably with Christopher Bell starting back in 29th. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex have combined for 7 wins at Richmond and have consistently been among the drivers to beat with every trip to Richmond. Additionally, both drivers proved yet again back at Bristol they are the best in the business at managing their tires. I believe Hamlin or Truex is needed as strong anchors for most betting lineups. Though I prefer Hamlin, Truex may be the better betting option.

If you want to pivot away from the outright favorites, Kyle Larson is an option after qualifying on the pole. Larson has a win and 5th place finish in the last two spring races at Richmond with the Next Gen Car and will have the advantage of starting out front with the #1 pit stall. Personally, I like Christopher Bell as my pivot because we are getting a much better number (odds) following Saturday’s disappointing qualifying effort. Bell’s stats at Richmond are just as strong as any driver in the field over the last 6-7 races and I expect that he will drive forward especially when the tires start to become a factor.

Among the group of drivers outside of the betting favorites category, I am favoring guys like Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, and Joey Logano as potential dark horses. All 3 drivers are former winners at Richmond and looked pretty solid in practice on Saturday. As stated earlier, Logano was exceptional in practice. The concerning point for Logano and Bowman is their consistency which has often not been great with the Next Gen Car. With that being said, it appears both drivers are trending in the right direction and could be potential options especially in H2H formats. Meanwhile, deeper low-tier drivers that could yield fantasy or prop bet value include names like Austin Dillon and Chase Briscoe. Both drivers likely have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest.

Draftkings Optimal Lineup for the Toyota Owners 400

2024 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

*More plays may be added. Keep checking back until “Final” status is displayed.*

Christopher Bell +650 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +700 (1 unit)
Chris Buescher +1400 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +1600 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman -115 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Chris Buescher -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Austin Dillon +550 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Alex Bowman -180 over Chase Briscoe
Kyle Larson +135 over Martin Truex Jr
1 unit to win = +265