2024 The Loop 110 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 6th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Chicago Street Course
TV: USA
The Chicago Street Course was once a virtual design but NASCAR turned the virtual concept into reality last year when they hosted the first street course race in the Windy City. The concept and race itself garnered lots of new attention and was ultimately a big success on the entertainment side of the house. As a result, NASCAR will make its return this weekend for an encore performance. The action begins on Saturday with the running of The Loop 110 which features a star-studded Xfinity Series that will return to the streets of downtown Chicago.
So far this year, the Xfinity Series has raced at 3 different road courses at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), Portland, and Sonoma. Those 3 road course races have arguably provided some of the best racing of the year throughout all of NASCAR’s touring series. Kyle Larson stole a win at COTA as Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG) and Austin Hill tangled on the last lap. SVG, who has exploded in popularity following an earth shattering victory in his Cup Series debut at Chicago, was able to get revenge by winning the next two road course races Portland and Sonoma which proved that last year’s Cup Series victory was no fluke. As a result, SVG has become the man to beat in Xfinity Series competition.
While SVG will surely be a favorite on Saturday, the entry list for The Loop 110 is very impressive and features names like Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Ty Gibbs, Daniel Suarez, John Hunter Nemechek, and others. From a pure talent standpoint, this may be the most talented Xfinity Series entry list we have seen in some time and that means SVG is going to be surrounded by talented competitors. Despite that fact, SVG’s current betting odds are in the even money range as an enormous betting favorite. While I can obviously see reasons to justify those types of odds, I think there are better betting options on the board in terms of value and sharpness.
Handicapping Chicago Street Course
There are obviously some differences between racing on a street course as opposed to road courses, the biggest difference being the surface structure. With that being said, I still approach the Chicago Street Course as another “road course” race from a handicapping perspective. The Chicago Street Course is not an overly challenging circuit but it does require being very technical which favors the road course skilled drivers. As a result, I think it is very important to review prior road course performances this season as our most reliable handicapping metric going into Saturday.
For the Xfinity Series regulars, the series has already competed at 3 road course events this season which we spoke about above. Those 3 races have not only been exciting but they have provided a large enough sample to show in-season performance trends at the road course venues. Therefore, I compiled loop data for the prior 3 road course races to provide a performance viewpoint of how drivers have performed this year. The table below shows you how dominant SVG has been but also shows how the Xfinity Series regulars and some part-time drivers have performed from a consistency standpoint. These avg. rating metrics specifically should be used as a 2024 road course performance measuring stick.
While the below table provides a collection of in-season performance metrics, keep in mind it does not show the stats for the Cup Series drivers like Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Daniel Suarez who rarely compete in the Xfinity Series. We know Larson is always a threat to win in the Xfinity Series and he won earlier this year on a road course (COTA). Meanwhile, Logano and Suarez are stepping into inferior equipment and are likely not going to challenge for the win. As a result, I believe the table can set our major baseline which can be used to determine value and make H2H selections!
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 130.6 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 3.7 | -30 | 47 | 64 | 204 |
| Justin Allgaier | 107.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 8.3 | -12 | 14 | 46 | 204 |
| Ty Gibbs | 106.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 20.3 | 11.0 | -31 | 28 | 27 | 179 |
| Austin Hill | 103.6 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 8.3 | -4 | 7 | 22 | 204 |
| Parker Kligerman | 102.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 204 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 99.3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 204 |
| Cole Custer | 95.6 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 10.3 | -11 | 3 | 0 | 204 |
| Sam Mayer | 93.3 | 6.3 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 10.7 | -85 | 10 | 0 | 203 |
| Sheldon Creed | 88.6 | 7.3 | 15.0 | 15.7 | 16.3 | -7 | 14 | 2 | 201 |
| Jesse Love | 87.0 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 13.7 | -26 | 2 | 0 | 204 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 85.7 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 16.5 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 129 |
| Riley Herbst | 85.2 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 49 | 2 | 17 | 199 |
| Chandler Smith | 85.1 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 16.7 | 14.0 | -13 | 3 | 0 | 195 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 82.5 | 15.0 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 14.7 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Sage Karam | 80.9 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 25.5 | 13.5 | -23 | 4 | 0 | 119 |
| Sammy Smith | 79.1 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 24.0 | 16.3 | -25 | 2 | 0 | 182 |
| Austin Green | 74.1 | 24.3 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 20.0 | -35 | 1 | 0 | 204 |
| Josh Bilicki | 72.0 | 20.7 | 17.7 | 19.7 | 18.0 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 202 |
| Ed Jones | 68.3 | 16.7 | 20.3 | 18.3 | 21.0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 196 |
| Ryan Sieg | 68.1 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 18.7 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Alex Labbe | 66.9 | 22.5 | 18.5 | 22.5 | 17.0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 129 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 58.1 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 25.0 | 22.0 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 199 |
| Josh Williams | 57.5 | 19.7 | 23.3 | 27.3 | 24.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 148 |
| Brandon Jones | 57.3 | 21.7 | 17.7 | 30.0 | 23.3 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 165 |
| Brennan Poole | 57.0 | 30.0 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Jeremy Clements | 54.8 | 24.7 | 25.3 | 23.7 | 23.3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 202 |
| Jeb Burton | 54.4 | 19.0 | 23.3 | 34.3 | 27.0 | -51 | 0 | 0 | 159 |
| Blaine Perkins | 52.3 | 29.3 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 24.3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 48.1 | 26.7 | 21.3 | 28.0 | 22.7 | -32 | 0 | 0 | 203 |
| Ryan Ellis | 46.6 | 32.3 | 27.7 | 25.3 | 26.0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 199 |
| Kyle Sieg | 42.0 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 28.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 154 |
| Preston Pardus | 41.6 | 22.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 29.5 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 88 |
| LeLand Honeyman | 40.9 | 31.7 | 32.3 | 25.0 | 27.7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 203 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 38.9 | 32.5 | 33.0 | 26.0 | 30.5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 152 |
| Garrett Smithley | 35.5 | 36.0 | 34.0 | 24.5 | 31.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 154 |
Betting Targets
For those unaware, practice and qualifying will take place Saturday morning several hours before the green flag of The Loop 110. Once on-track activities conclude, I will update our observations section below and perhaps make final thoughts/betting picks. However, I do believe we can go ahead and make some solid plays prior to Saturday’s on-track activities and before betting odds change due to qualifying results. Based on some of the statistics shown above, I think there is screaming value for guys like Justin Allgaier and Austin Hill. Both drivers are playable in all formats as legitimate dark horses or sharp H2H targets.
Based on current betting odds, I believe you could make mathematical arguments for the likes of Sam Mayer and Cole Custer. Mayer has been one of the most underrated road course talents in all of NASCAR and Custer is capable of winning anywhere. Not to mention, Custer is the defending winner of The Loop 110 in a race where he led every lap before the race was called due to weather. Needless to say, Custer and Mayer are more of the guys that have intriguing betting value if things were to go south for SVG. Ultimately, Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek, and Jesse Love are among my favorite 3 betting targets as guys who should burst their suggested ceilings and warrant early betting consideration in H2H formats. Lastly, don’t be surprised if Sage Karam and/or Parker Retzlaff yield prop bet and fantasy racing value by the end of Saturday.
Practice and Qualifying Observations
Practice and Qualifying just concluded in Chicago and without much surprise Shane Van Gisbergen has won the pole for today’s The Loop 110. SVG edged out Kyle Larson for the pole who has proven to be fast through today’s opening sessions. Connor Mosack, Ty Gibbs, and Sam Mayer rounded out the top 5 in qualifying. In terms of practice, I don’t think there were any real surprises based on how I handicapped this race before Saturday’s sessions. Perhaps Justin Allgaier was not quite as strong as I expected however I think the majority of our early picks are in the ballpark.
John Hunter Nemechek was among the drivers I expected to run well today and his practice times were also very solid. Consider Nemechek a prime H2H target going into this afternoon. Also, I would encourage bettors to fade Joey Logano this afternoon as he pilots the #15 vacated by Hailie Deagan. I posted a big 4 unit play, our biggest of the season, against Logano last night in favor of last year’s winner Cole Custer because I knew there would be a big equipment gap in terms of speed. Logano did not look good in practice and I believe we can fade him with confidence against many of the other competitors!
2024 The Loop 110 Race Picks
*More race picks may be posted. Check back until “FINAL” status is displayed!*
Ty Gibbs +600 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +1800 (.5 unit)
Justin Allgaier +2000 (.5 unit)
Austin Hill +2800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Cole Custer -120 over Joey Logano (4 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Two Team Parlay
SVG +165 wins The Loop 110
Justin Haley finishes Top 10 in Grant Park 165
Risking 1 unit to win:
+920
