2024 The Great American Getaway 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 14th, 2024. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: USA

After two straight days of racing at Pocono Raceway, the Cup Series will get their opportunity in the spotlight with Sunday’s running of The Great American Getaway 400. Last week, Alex Bowman became the 12th different winner this season with his upset victory at Chicago. As a result, there are just 4 positions that remain open for the playoffs which are currently being decided upon points. However, Pocono Raceway is another venue that could provoke upset opportunities due to the amount of strategy that will come into play. Therefore, we will be looking for those drivers that could pull off an upset and explore the best betting opportunities for the Cup Series’ return to the Tricky Triangle!

For those unaware or simply needing a reminder, Pocono Raceway is a large 2.5 mile triangle shaped raceway that features 3 distinct corners. The frontstretch at Pocono is among the biggest in the sport which sets up a hairy entry into turn 1 at high speeds. From there, Cup Series drivers will head down another straightaway before entering the tunnel turn (2) which is another high-speed section of the track that features a rather quick 90 degree turn. While speeds taper off into turn 3, the exit of turn 3 is arguably one of the most important areas of the racetrack as it sets the pace for the speed back down the straightaway.

Needless to say, all 3 of these turns are different from one another and that is why handling is very important in the setup of the car. In reality, drivers/teams are never going to get their car to be perfect at all ends of the raceway because of the differences in each turn. However, teams/drivers will try to find that perfect balance that produces the fastest lap times. Perhaps more importantly due to how close lap times are throughout the field, teams will adopt various strategies on Sunday as everyone fights for track position. “Clean air” is extremely important towards helping produce optimal lap times and we should expect a full race of strategy calls as teams fight to win the battle for track position.

Handicapping Pocono

When it comes to strategy, we really cannot predict what teams will hit the correct strategy. We have an idea of the crew chiefs that typically roll the dice and are aggressive with strategy. Despite knowing some of the tendencies from crew chiefs and teams, it is still difficult to predict strategy because so many things can change during the course of the race. One small mistake can completely change how strategy plays into the picture for each team. However, we can ensure our handicapping is focused on the fastest teams/drivers that yield betting value. After all, strategy is only successful if you have the speed to back it up which was evident in last week’s 25-1 winner with Alex Bowman.

Before we dive into drivers that have value based on current odds, I also think it is important to note that historical trends seem to produce valuable handicapping information at Pocono. Due to the size of this speedway and the relatively flat surface, we often see familiar names emerge at the front of the field. Therefore, we will focus on driver history, compare notes to practice and qualifying which took place on Saturday, and then explore betting odds in an attempt to extract the most value in our betting card for Sunday!

Pocono – Facts and Stats

• Denny Hamlin has the most wins (7) in NASCAR history at Pocono.
• Kyle Busch (4), Martin Truex Jr (2), Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott are former winners at Pocono.
• Despite 0 wins, William Byron has the best average finishing position (9.9) among active drivers at Pocono.
• Brad Keselowski has posted 11 career top 5 finishes in just 26 career starts at Pocono.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 2nd in each of the last two races at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.
• Martin Truex Jr, Christopher Bell, and Erik Jones have finished in the top 10 in each of the last two races at Pocono in the Next Gen Car.
• Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, William Byron, and Kyle Larson are the elite group of drivers that have posted a 100+ average driving rating over the last 4 races at Pocono.
• Joey Logano has finished outside the top 10 in 6 of the last 7 races at Pocono.
• Austin Dillon has just 1 top 10 finish in 18 career starts at Pocono.
• Aside from his weather causing victory in 2016, Chris Buescher has never finished inside the top 10 in 13 additional career starts at Pocono.
• Toyota drivers have won 8 of the last 11 races at Pocono.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 4 of the last 5 races at Pocono.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

As the last car on the track during qualifying, Ty Gibbs edged out William Byron to earn his 2nd career pole award. Gibbs, who finished 5th in last year’s race at Pocono, posted a speed of 170.039mph for the top spot. Behind Gibbs and Byron on the first row, Joe Gibbs Racing occupied the 2nd row with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr while Josh Berry rounded out the top 5 positions. Behind those guys was a mixed bag of drivers and teams which included Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Zane Smith, and Joey Logano in the 6-10 positions. Possibly the biggest note from qualifying was the strength of the Toyotas, specifically the bunch from Joe Gibbs Racing who flexed their speed throughout on-track sessions on Saturday.

In practice prior to qualifying, Martin Truex Jr flexed the most muscle by leading all of the 5, 10, and 15 consecutive lap categories. Denny Hamlin led the best 20 lap average category but that is likely because Truex did not run as many laps. As I alluded to above in the qualifying observations, Truex and Hamlin headlined a strong group of Toyotas that appeared to have the most speed and consistency on the stopwatch. Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace were all impressive on speed and within striking distance of the top times from Truex/Hamlin. The only other driver that really had similar speed to the Toyotas include the #24 of William Byron who is perhaps the most underrated Pocono talent in the field. Meanwhile, the surprise stories included strong practices from the likes of Austin Cindric and Ricky Stenhouse Jr who appear to be trending in a positive direction. Lastly, I would list Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney as a pair of the top drivers that were surprisingly unimpressive in practice and perhaps trending in the opposite direction going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

Without question, betting cards should have significant exposure to the Toyotas for Sunday’s The Great American Getaway 400. Toyota drivers finished in 5 of the top 6 positions in last year’s race and appear to have the premium speed yet again. Due to track history, I would say that these factors play into the hand of Denny Hamlin who has been the best Toyota throughout the season and who is also the best all-time at Pocono. Fortunately, we have Hamlin in a parlay from the Truck Series race on Friday which will help yield additional value. However, I think Truex, Gibbs, and Reddick are all worthy of consideration. Personally, I believe Gibbs is slightly overvalued from a betting odds perspective but is in the deserving range of favorites.

Based on current betting odds, I believe William Byron has the most logistical value. Despite failing to reach victory lane, Byron has the best average finishing position among active drivers and also impressive speed throughout sessions on Saturday. Byron is also one of the guys starting at the front of the field which means he already checks the box for track position at the start of this race. Simply put, I think Byron is worthy of outright favorite consideration but is currently the 5th leading betting favorite. As a result, I think Byron is worthy of exposure in all formats. Surprisingly, Tyler Reddick is getting even better odds which means Reddick and Byron have enough value to warrant consideration in all formats.

As we look deeper in the field, Josh Berry, Bubba Wallace, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are the drivers that are worthy of consideration in low-tier H2H match-ups and potential prop bet formats. Berry has been showing tremendous momentum in recent weeks, showed solid speed in qualifying, and has a strong performance resume from his time in the Xfinity Series at Pocono. For some reason, Wallace has slipped to the 50-1 range due to a bad qualifying effort. However, Wallace is a driver that showed excellent speed in practice, has been running well, and needs to take chances (strategy?) to get a victory. Meanwhile, Stenhouse is probably a higher risk play which means he should probably be reviewed for prop bets opportunities with plus value. The reason I call out Stenhouse as a deep option is because he finished 7th in last year’s race and showed solid pace in practice on Saturday!

Draftkings Optimal Cup Series Lineup for Pocono

2024 The Great American Getaway 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Martin Truex Jr +600 (1 unit)
William Byron +1000 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1200 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1600 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +4000 (.25 unit)
Bubba Wallace +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -110 over Christopher Bell (3 units)
William Byron -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -115 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Kyle Busch +550 wins Group H (Keselowski, Blaney, Logano)(.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +325 wins Group I (Bowman, Buescher, Chastain (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +650 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +1000 finishes as Top Ford (.5 unit)