2024 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 29th, 2024. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Superspeedway
TV: USA
NASCAR racing in Music City continues on Saturday with the Xfinity Series stepping into the spotlight for the running of the Tennessee Lottery 250 at Nashville Superspeedway. The major storyline surrounding tomorrow’s Xfinity Series race includes the amount of star studded talent that will be competing. There are several drivers stepping down from Cup Series competition on Saturday for extra seat time in preparation of Sunday’s Ally 400 . As a result, the entry list for the Tennessee Lottery 250 includes an impressive list of talents featuring names like Ty Gibbs, John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick who will join the Xfinity Series regulars for an intriguing afternoon of racing!
Obviously, the number of prestigious Cup Series names will make things extremely difficult on the Xfinity Series regulars on Saturday. Gibbs and Nemechek are always a threat in the Xfinity Series in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment and will be among the overall betting favorites. Ross Chastain won last year’s Cup Series race at Nashville and will be attempting to make another run at an Xfinity Series trophy. Reddick is a former two-time Xfinity Series Champion that will be stepping into capable equipment with the #26 team at Sam Hunt Racing. Lastly, Noah Gragson is another driver with a dominant Xfinity Series resume. Unfortunately for Gragson, he will be stepping into inferior equipment with Rette Jones Racing which will greatly diminish his ceiling going into this event.
With all things considered, this lineup for the Tennessee Lottery 250 is still impressive. Along with the prestigious Cup Series names, we also have a ton of the Xfinity Series regulars who are still fighting for wins, points, and potential playoff positions to keep things entertaining. While the Cup Series’ drivers will likely steal some of the spotlight, I would warn bettors that there are many Xfinity Series’ regulars that are worthy of betting consideration, who are not only worthy of upsetting the group of Cup Series’ drivers that have bombarded this event, but those Xfinity Series regulars are also among the drivers with the best betting value going into the weekend. Needless to say, there are a lot of drivers that must be evaluated before we make any betting selections.
Handicapping Nashville
If you caught my Truck Series preview prior to Friday’s Rackley Roofing 200, I was brutally honest in the fact that Nashville Superspeedway is a very difficult track to handicap. The 1.33 mile D-shaped oval is unique in size, unique in layout, and unique in the fact that it is one of the biggest fully concrete venues on the schedule. For these reasons, handicapping this event can be difficult because there are not many tracks that closely compare to Nashville. In my personal opinion, I believe one of the best handicapping angles is evaluating how drivers typically perform on other concrete surfaces regardless of track size. Finding optimal speed on concrete requires a unique “feel” and I believe that correlates to other similar surface structures. For those reasons, I believe handicappers can look back to races at other concrete venues, like Dover, as solid handicapping measuring sticks for Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 to establish a baseline of expectations, especially when combined with drivers’ historical performances at Nashville as the other part of the handicapping formula this week!
Handicapping Notes
If you look back at the history books at Nashville Superspeedway, Cup Series drivers have often dominated these races when competing at Nashville. I believe the reason for that trend is because Nashville requires a very technical skill set and feel for the racecar on the concrete surface which obviously favors the better talent, aka Cup Series talents. Nashville just happens to be one of Ross Chastain’s best tracks where he has shined in Cup Series competition. However, like Noah Gragson, Chastain will be piloting inferior equipment this weekend with DGM Racing. Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs and John Hunter Nemechek will step into two of the best cars in the series with JGR which is the reason both drivers are among the two outright betting favorites.
With that being said, it’s also worth noting that neither Gibbs nor Nemechek has ever won at a fully concrete surface in their careers despite their abundance of Xfinity Series starts. For that reason and others, I don’t believe anyone is going to run away with this race on Saturday. In fact, I believe guys like Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, and Riley Herbst have much higher ceilings than most casuals would expect when they compare it to the names on the entry list. All 3 of those drivers have shown positive handicapping signs on the concrete and also at Nashville in prior races. While Herbst is likely considered a long shot, Allgaier and Mayer have been among the best outright talents in the Xfinity Series over the last several weeks which strengthens the argument for chasing better betting value going into Saturday.
Betting Targets
I jumped on Riley Herbst early in the week at 20-1 odds because I believe that number warranted early betting consideration. Herbst has been really good at Nashville and I simply could not pass up the 20-1 odds. With that being said, Herbst is likely more suitable in H2H formats because his winning percentage and probability remains low. I do believe the JGR duo of Gibbs and Nemechek will be difficult to defeat but I simply can’t justify the betting odds when I believe there will be more parity than expected at the front of the field. For those reasons, I like Allgaier and Mayer as early considerations with better betting value. Both drivers have shown great speed in recent weeks and I like their driving styles for this type of layout.
I’m hoping with the abundance of Cup Series talents that we will get an uptick in numerous H2H options because I would really like to exploit some of these betting lines on both sides. As stated before, Herbst is among one of my favorite H2H targets due to his prior performances at Nashville. Ross Chastain has been downright disrespected at 50-1 odds. While I agree with the concerns around Chastain’s equipment, he has a much higher ceiling than anyone in his betting odds range which makes Chastain another ideal H2H target. Additionally, I would throw the likes of Sheldon Creed, AJ Allmendinger (defending winner), and Brandon Jones into the bucket of guys that have a high likelihood of exceeding their suggested ceilings. Though I will admit, I would avoid Brandon Jones in H2H formats like the plague because at the end of the day he still sucks.
Practice and Qualifying Observations
Update: Practice and qualifying sessions just concluded at Nashville Superspeedway with Ty Gibbs capturing the pole for today’s Tennessee Lottery 250. Gibbs edged out Cole Custer for the top spot and will have the luxury of leading the field to green later this afternoon. In practice, Chandler Smith and Gibbs appeared to be the fastest cars for this afternoon’s race. While Smith posted the fastest single lap speed, Gibbs held the fastest marks in nearly every consecutive lap category strengthening his case as this afternoon’s outright betting favorite.
With that being said, Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier are also names that appear to be well within striking distance. Allgaier posted really impressive long-run times. I was waiting until after qualifying in hopes to get a better number on Allgaier and I believe that should work into our favor. Meanwhile on the other side of the speed charts, I would list John Hunter Nemechek, Ross Chastain, and Carson Kvapil among the guys that disappointed. Nemechek has been among the overall favorites going into the weekend but did not appear to have the elite speed that some of the others displayed. Meanwhile, Chastian and Kvapil appeared to be well off in terms of speed.
2024 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Justin Allgaier +350 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +800 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2000 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Sammy Smith -115 over Carson Kvapil (3 units)
Cole Custer -125 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Riley Herbst -130 over Jesse Love (2 units)
Ross Chastain +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
