2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 26th, 2024. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: NBC

Just two races remain before the championship finale will commence at Phoenix Raceway. Last week, Joey Logano became the first driver to lock themselves into the championship finale with his victory at Las Vegas. On Sunday, the remaining 7 drivers in the playoffs will attempt to punch their championship ticket at Homestead-Miami Speedway with the running of the Straight Talk Wireless 400. However, Homestead is one of the toughest race tracks on the circuit for drivers and that will allow opportunities for the best wheelmen in the sport to emerge at the front of the field regardless of their playoff status!

Last week during our preview for Las Vegas, I spent a great deal of time discussing in-season performance trends and dynamic averages for our main handicapping focus. Though Homestead is another 1.5 mile intermediate speedway, the handicapping focus will be much different this week. Unlike Las Vegas where drivers are on-throttle nearly the entire lap, Homestead requires a lot less on-throttle time because the surface does not have any grip. In fact, Homestead’s surface is 21 years old and rivals the surface conditions of Darlington meaning we will see lap times falling off by 3 seconds or more. For those reasons, we must consider the drivers that excel at this style of racing as opposed to primarily focusing on team/driver in-season performance trends at similar venues.

Unfortunately, races at Homestead trend heavily to the top drivers which means we rarely get great value in terms of futures (win) odds. If you look at the winners list at Homestead in previous years, it is filled with the top drivers in the sport and the top drivers in performance in the years where wins were captured. While I know the Next Gen Car has produced unprecedented parity and surprise winners just like last week at Vegas, I’m just not confident that there will be as much parity towards the front of the field on Sunday and would advise bettors to focus less on dark horses. Luckily, this style of racing is very advantageous for bettors in the form of H2H match-ups and I am hoping that oddsmakers offer a ton of match-ups for Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400. If that happens, we should be able to identify ideal betting targets with a much higher likelihood than traditional races.

Homestead – Quick Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Homestead.
• Kyle Busch (2), Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, William Byron, and Christopher Bell are all former winners at Homestead.
• Kyle Busch has the best average finishing position (9.6) among active drivers over the last 10 races at Homestead.
• Tyler Reddick has finished 4th or better in 3 of his 4 career starts at Homestead in the Cup Series. *Reddick is a two-time winner at Homestead in the Xfinity Series
• Martin Truex Jr has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 7 races at Homestead.
• Austin Dillion has finished 12th or better in 8 straight races at Homestead.
• AJ Allmendinger has finished in the Top 5 in each of his last two starts at Homestead in the Next Gen Car.
• Kyle Larson has incredibly produced a +105 average driver rating in 7 of the last 8 races at Homestead.
• Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Martin Truex Jr are the only drivers to compile a 100+ average driver rating in each of the two races at Homestead in the Next Gen Car.
• Toyota drivers have won 5 of the last 8 races at Homestead.
• The eventual race winner has started in the Top 5 in 9 of the last 11 races at Homestead.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 7 straight races at Homestead.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On-track activities were held very early Saturday morning in relatively cool track conditions. Needless to say, the track will be much hotter on Sunday when the green flag waves for the 2:30PM (EST) start time. Once this morning’s activities concluded, Tyler Reddick had earned his first career pole at Homestead and 3rd overall pole award of the season. Reddick has been very good at Homestead throughout his career and will have the opportunity to lead the likes of Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr to the green flag. While Reddick’s starting position is ideal, bettors should also remember that single lap speeds mean nothing at a place like Homestead where long-run speed is king.

In practice, we had a chance to study lap times to perhaps identify drivers that may have potential long-run speed going into Sunday despite the noteworthy track conditions. During practice, I thought the Toyotas continued to show really strong speed. Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and Bubba Wallace were all really solid in terms of overall speed. In reality, there were a lot of the top names within close proximity of each other on the stopwatch. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the speed from the #10 car with Noah Gragson. As everyone is aware, Stewart-Haas Racing cars have struggled this season but Gragson was really fast in practice leading the majority of the consecutive lap average categories. Like Reddick, Gragson has been really strong at Homestead in Xfinity Series competition therefore he is a driver to watch going into the weekend. Lastly, a few drivers that did not show much speed in practice and perhaps trending in the wrong direction include Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch.

Betting Targets

If you look at prior performances at Homestead and simply compare it to other similar tracks, Kyle Larson stands alone as the best driver in the sport at these racing conditions. However, I would put Tyler Reddick closer behind than many would expect. Reddick can run the wall with the best of them and that will be the place to be Sunday afternoon with a slick track. Unfortunately, Reddick’s pole winning speed in qualifying has hurt his betting odds but I would be foolish to declare that Larson/Reddick are not justifiable betting favorites. While both drivers are heavy favorites, bettors will likely want exposure to both drivers in some form or fashion whether it’s through parlays or H2H match-ups.

Behind the dynamic duo of Reddick/Larson who are starting on the front row, it becomes a much bigger guessing game. However, I lean towards some of the Toyota drivers like Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin as highly realistic options. The problem with Truex and Hamlin is that they have been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks. As we go deeper into the field, I see less reliable dark horses and start focusing heavier on potential H2H targets. My favorite H2H targets going into Sunday include the likes of Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger. Both drivers had relatively poor qualifying efforts and may not have winning upside. However, both drivers have been extremely good at Homestead throughout their careers and should march forward from their starting positions. Simply put, both drivers have much higher ceilings than everyone in their current odds range which makes them ideal targets for H2H match-ups and for fantasy purposes.

*Other bottom-tier drivers that are worthy of betting and fantasy consideration include Austin Dillon and AJ Allmendinger*

2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

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Kyle Larson +400 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +800 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1200 (.75 unit)
Noah Gragson +2800 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -115 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Joey Logano -110 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Michael McDowell +400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +450 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)