2024 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 31st, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: USA

Darlington Raceway, known as the Lady in Black, has always been known as one of the toughest tracks in NASCAR. For drivers, there is no level of difficulty greater than competing against Darlington’s unique narrow and abrasive layout because it provides the ultimate test of skill and grit. Needless to say, capturing victory at Darlington is among the most prestigious accomplishments a driver can earn. This weekend drivers from both the Xfinity and Cup Series will be chasing an opportunity for that prestigious honor when the green flag waves for the running of the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200.

For the first time in several weeks, Saturday’s entry list is stacked with Cup Series drivers that will be stepping down to compete in the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200. There are several huge names that will be competing on Saturday including the likes of Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Noah Gragson, and Ross Chastain! We have seen these stacked entry lists occasionally in the Xfinity Series when drivers are trying to gain experience for the Cup Series races. However, this weekend’s return to Darlington is the 2nd trip of the season for both Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams. Needless to say, the Cup Series’ drivers that are competing on Saturday are not aiming for experience to help Sunday’s Southern 500 but rather they are simply chasing the opportunity to capture a Darlington checkered flag!

While the amount of Cup Series drivers will spice up the competition, current betting odds remain very conservative. Prior to last week’s win by Ryan Truex at Daytona, these Xfinity Series races have been dominated by the outright betting favorites and that trend could continue with heavy hitters like Christopher Bell, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, and Chase Elliott all receiving extremely conservative betting odds as the outright betting favorites. While we may or may not find value in futures (win) bets, we still should have plenty of opportunities to produce a profit with the amount of H2H options that should be available with all of the big names in the field. Darlington has historically been one of my favorite venues to handicap and aggressively target H2H match-ups which will be a point of focus for our betting selections!

Handicapping Strategy

The best handicapping tool anytime Darlington arrives on the schedule is going to be reviewing drivers’ prior performances at Darlington. Unlike other intermediate layouts where performance is king, Darlington is all about the driver. The unique layout, the tire fall off, and outright difficulty is not going to produce major surprises but rather separate the elite talents at the wheel. With that being said, there is some major disparity in the Xfinity Series in terms of equipment which must be considered throughout the weekend. For example, Joey Logano and Noah Gragson are competing for inferior racing teams that have yet to show “winning” race speed. As a result, handicappers must consider the equipment factor this weekend as well. If we can find the drivers with the strong Darlington resumes and also find the drivers in strong equipment, we should find our betting targets!

Betting Targets

Back in May, Justin Allgaier led 119 of 147 laps to produce a dominating victory in the Crown Royal 200 at Darlington. Allgaier has won 3 of the last 7 Xfinity Series races at Darlington. Due to the resume, speed shown in the spring, and outright momentum, Allgaier could be argued as the guy to beat going into Saturday despite so many big names from the Cup Series. Christopher Bell appears to be in the best equipment compared to the other Cup Series drivers with Chase Elliott is race winning equipment as well. With that being said, perhaps practice will give us some insight into who may emerge from the group as outright betting favorites as the guy to beat. If I had to bet on who that driver would be, Allgaier and Bell get the nod going into Saturday’s on-track activities.

Since I don’t believe any of the outright betting favorites are going to yield a lot of “value,” I may try to gamble with some parlays to produce better ROI. In my opinion, we don’t really find “value” until we get to guys like Austin Hill, Riley Herbst, and Jesse Love. Hill has the best chance of that group to hit paydirt based on how well he has performed at Darlington in recent years. In fact, Hill has finished in the runner-up position in the last two Xfinity Series races at Darlington. For some reason, Hill is listed in the 10-1 betting odds range which may be the biggest value on the board in all formats. Meanwhile, Herbst and Love have both shown some strong performances at recent races in Darlington and have shown good momentum in recent weeks. Personally, I believe Herbst and Love are betting H2H targets but they cannot be completely overlooked as dark horse options either!

Deeper into the field, Parker Kligerman, Corey Heim, and Ross Chastain are a group of drivers that are getting really big numbers. Chastain will be piloting the #92 for DGM Racing which does not have great speed but Chastain has always been solid at Darlington which means his ceiling may be a bit higher than current betting odds suggest. Meanwhile both Kligerman and Heim are in equipment that is capable of running towards the front of the field. Kligerman actually averaged a 7th place running position back in the spring race and Darlington is one of the few tracks where Corey Heim has experience in the Xfinity Series cars. Needless to say, I believe both Kligerman and Heim could offer some value especially in prop bet formats with plus money!

2024 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200 Optimal Lineup

2024 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Austin Hill +900 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Hill -120 over Sheldon Creed (3 units)
Jesse Love -110 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -110 over Cole Custer (2 units)

Two Team Parlays

Justin Allgaier +360 wins Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200
Toyota +110 wins Cookout Southern 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +865