2024 South Point 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 20th, 2024. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

Over the next 3 weeks, NASCAR’s Cup Series playoffs will decide the final four drivers that will have the opportunity to race for a championship in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway. However, the 8 current drivers that are in the playoffs consist of one of the strongest groups in playoffs history which means the championship path will be extremely difficult. On Sunday, the opening act of the Round of 8 will transpire at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the South Point 400 and will provide the opportunity for a playoff driver to lock themselves into the championship finale. While all eyes will be on the championship contenders, there are some non-championship contenders that may be worthy of betting consideration as well going into Sunday!

Back in the spring, Kyle Larson won the Pennzoil 400 in absolute dominating fashion by leading 181 of the posted 267 laps. The victory was Larson’s 2nd straight at Las Vegas where he has been nothing short of phenomenal in recent years. In fact, Larson has 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes in his last 7 starts at Las Vegas and will get the opportunity to go for his 3rd straight win as the outright betting favorite on Sunday. Larson already leads the point standings cutoff line by a healthy 33 points but I believe everyone would agree that he has an excellent chance to clinch a playoff spot due to his Vegas resume. With that being said, there is minimal value towards betting on the #5 car this week and honestly bettors may want to look elsewhere anyway following Saturday’s on-track sessions.

Before we dive into practice observations, let’s first discuss how we should handicap Sunday’s South Point 400. In Saturday’s qualifying, drivers were full-throttle the entire way around Las Vegas’ 1.5 mile layout or at least the best drivers were wide open for the full lap. Unlike superspeedways, it’s not exactly normal to be full throttle around a 1.5 mile speedway. However, Las Vegas provides enough track and grip to make it happen for the drivers that can keep a steady wheel. While we should not expect wide open laps in race conditions, I do think this speaks volumes for how bettors should handicap Vegas. This race will be about pure speed and talent behind the wheel. The drivers that are able to keep their foot in the throttle are going to be the drivers that emerge at the front of the field. As a result, we should look for the teams that have produced the most “speed” at the 1.5 mile speedways this season and then also consider the driver talents that fit this type of racing. If we do that, we should have a strong betting card.

Betting Notes – Las Vegas

• Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Las Vegas. *Johnson makes our notes this week because he will be competing on Sunday.
• Kyle Larson (3), Joey Logano (3), Brad Keselowski (3), Martin Truex Jr (2), Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Alex Bowman are all formers winners at Las Vegas.
• Kyle Larson has the best career average finishing position (9.3) among active drivers.
• Martin Truex Jr has the best average finishing position (7.3) over the last 10 races.
• Kyle Busch has finished 6th or better in 6 of the last 8 races at Las Vegas.
• Over the last 7 races at Vegas, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, William Byron, and Ryan Blaney have all produced 100+ average driver ratings.
• Ross Chastain has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races at Las Vegas.
• Chris Buescher has just one Top 10 finish in 15 career starts at Las Vegas.
• Michael McDowell has failed to finish in the Top 15 in 21 career starts at Las Vegas.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 6 of the last 8 races at Las Vegas
• The eventual race winner has started from the 2nd position in each of the last 3 races at Las Vegas.

Dynamic Averages

I am not going to spend a ton of time discussing dynamic averages but rest assured we should be considering dynamic averages into the handicapping equation this week. I’ll let our readers conduct their own research in this category this week. However, I will call out the facts that guys like Ty Gibbs and Christopher Bell have surprisingly strong averages on the intermediate layouts that deserve consideration. Meanwhile, I would also add that Chris Buescher, Joey Logano, and Bubba Wallace have all produced subpar performance trends over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile speedways. At this point in the season, these trends are less likely to change compared to early in the year. Therefore, bettors should use these metrics as a strong handicapping foundation.

Practice and Qualifying Results

In qualifying, Christopher Bell just narrowly edged out Tyler Reddick for the pole position. Perhaps the story of the afternoon was the speed from the Toyota teams. Along with Bell and Reddick, Denny Hamlin also qualified in the top 4 positions and many other Toyota teams flexed strong speed in practice. Therefore, perhaps the Toyota teams have some momentum going into Sunday. Overall, I don’t think there were any huge surprises from a qualifying perspective. Ryan Blaney did not get an opportunity to qualify. Blaney wrecked during practice and the #12 team elected to prepare the backup car during qualifying. As a result, Blaney will be starting at the rear of the field.

In practice, teams and drivers were split into separate groups which has been common at the ovals this season. Surprisingly, the 2nd group (B) produced the most speed which is not typical. Usually, the opening group produces the most speed because the track is cooler. However, the 2nd group (B) posted several fast laps which was led by Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Larson. Martin Truex Jr, Ty Gibbs, and Carson Hocevar posted the fastest single lap times in the opening group (A) but did not show the same race speed. Overall, I’m not looking at the groups very differently because I don’t think track conditions played a huge factor. With that being said, I thought Tyler Reddick produced the most speed on the stopwatch among all cars. Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin all showed terrific long-run speed. I thought Carson Hocevar and Ross Chastain fired off really well but they also seemed to fade much more than some of the other drivers after about 10-15 laps. While I was trying to identify the fastest cars, it was much easier to identify the cars that were way off in terms of speed. The drivers in that category were Joey Logano, Ty Gibbs, and Alex Bowman.

Betting Targets

While we have discussed a lot of metrics and practice observations, keep in mind that the drivers with the best car control are going to shine at a track like Las Vegas. Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain are all names that fit that narrative well. As a result, I don’t think we should flat out overlook some of those guys whose talent fits this type of racing and we definitely should not bet against those guys in match-up situations. With that being said, Larson is obviously the rightful betting favorite for Sunday despite his disgusting betting odds. However, I am gravitated to the likes of Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin as the best betting options among the favorites. As good as Larson has been in recent races at Las Vegas, Hamlin is not far behind. Both Reddick and Hamlin are from the Toyota camp that have shown excellent speed and it just feels like those guys are trending in the right direction ahead of Sunday.

Behind some of the top dogs, I want exposure to Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney in H2H and fantasy formats. All of those drivers have the opportunity to move forward Sunday and have very quality runs. Blaney is a must-start in fantasy from the rear of the field. Meanwhile, Chastain and Elliott are just really strong at this style of racing and have shown enough speed to confirm that they are headed for another quality performance. Deeper into the field, Noah Gragson and Carson Hocevar are excellent dark horse options to target in H2H match-ups or prop bet formats. Hocevar had an excellent qualifying effort which may hurt his value but Noah Gragson has the same upside as an absolute wheelman that has finished 11th or better in 2 of his 3 starts at Las Vegas. As a result, Gragson is a premier bottom-tier betting target!

2024 South Point 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 South Point 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +550 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +800 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1200 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.75 unit)
Noah Gragson +12500 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Christopher Bell -130 over William Byron (2 units)
Kyle Busch -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Noah Gragson +250 wins Group N (Dillon, Briscoe, Stenhouse Jr.)(2 units)
Ross Chastain +200 wins Group C (Gibbs, Wallace, Buescher)(1 unit)