2024 Shriners Children’s 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 10th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the championship homesite at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Shriners Children’s 500. Back in November, Ross Chastain pulled out a surprising victory over the championship contenders in the Cup Series season finale at Phoenix while Ryan Blaney earned his 1st Cup Series title with a runner-up finish. This week, NASCAR’s best will return with a different rules package that has been implemented in hopes to improve the short-track racing product. However, early responses from drivers have been slightly pessimistic towards making any improvement and it sounds like the racing will be very similar to what we witnessed last season.

While the product of racing at Phoenix may not be significantly different this week, let me remind everyone that this is still a new racing season, with new manufacturer bodies, and numerous variances compared to what we witnessed just a few months ago at the championship finale. Therefore, we should not assume that any performance trends from last year, at Phoenix, will directly correlate to this weekend’s expectations. While we will definitely examine results from Phoenix over the last two years with the Next Gen Car, we must remain open minded to potential changes in performance trends for not only this week but also moving forward. Cup Series’ teams had the opportunity to practice on Friday for an extended period of time. All teams are scrambling to find the most speed with this year’s short-track rules changes which features a smaller 3-inch rear spoiler, a simplified rear diffuser, and no engine panel strakes which are all aimed to reduce the overall amount of downforce.

From a historical narrative, the spring race at Phoenix has always been a wild-card type of race because it is usually the first “short-track” race of the season. In fact, the spring race has often differed significantly from the fall championship race because of the length of time in between both events and the amount of changes that happen throughout a season. If you just look at the last 3 spring winners at Phoenix which includes Martin Truex Jr (2021), Chase Briscoe (2022), and William Byron (2023), they were all first-time Phoenix winners. In fact, Briscoe’s win remains the lone victory of his career. Therefore, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that we could see some surprises on Sunday and I believe qualifying results from Saturday spotlighted that possibility with names like Ty Gibbs, Erik Jones, Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell, and Carson Hocevar all qualifying inside the top 10!

Phoenix Numbers and Notes

• Kyle Busch and Joey Logano lead all active drivers with 3 career wins at Phoenix.
• Denny Hamlin (2), William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Briscoe, and Ross Chastain are all former winners at Phoenix.
*Stats below are specific to the Next Gen Car at Phoenix (2022-present)

• Ryan Blaney has the best average finishing position (2.5), average driver rating (117.7), and has led the most laps (254) at Phoenix in the Next Gen Car. Blaney has finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd, in his 4 starts at Phoenix in the Next Gen Car.
• William Byron has a victory, 4th place, and 6th place finish in the last 3 races at Phoenix which includes 3 stage wins.
• William Byron and Kyle Larson finished in the top 5 in both Phoenix races during the 2023 season.
• Ross Chastain has a victory, runner-up finish, and 3rd place result in 3 of his 4 starts at Phoenix in the Next Gen Car.
• Chase Briscoe has a victory, 4th place, and 7th place result in 3 of the last 4 races at Phoenix.
• Martin Truex Jr has just a single top 10 finish (6th) in the last 4 races at Phoenix.
• Brad Keselowski’s best finish in the last 4 races at Phoenix is 15th.

Practice Observations

Denny Hamlin emerged with the pole on Saturday with a fast lap of 132.655mph in qualifying. Toyota drivers captured 4 of the 6 top positions in qualifying, overcoming the qualifying concerns they had through the opening weeks of the season. It has been my personal opinion that the Toyotas have shown the most speed from an organizational standpoint and they appear to have plenty of speed again this weekend. While qualifying results were varied throughout the field, I really want to highlight the practice observations from Friday because teams were granted a full hour of practice time which has become a rarity with the modern weekend schedules.

In practice, Joey Logano edged out Denny Hamlin for the fastest lap (131.167mph) of the session. However, I don’t think bettors should be concerned at all with single lap speed. Phoenix is one of those tracks that produces a lot of green flag racing and handling/car setup is very important over the long runs. From what we were able to see in race trim, Bubba Wallace and Christopher Bell appeared to have the fastest rides. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano were in close proximity. Reddick actually spun late in practice but did not hit anything, meaning he will retain his 6th place starting position. Overall, I thought the Toyotas were really good while Joey Logano/Ryan Blaney were both solid as well. The Chevrolet teams did not look as strong.

In fact, Carson Hocevar and Alex Bowman were among the drivers posting the best laps in practice from the Team Chevy camp. Not only were the Chevrolets not showing speed but the Richard Childress Racing cars of Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon were absolutely terrible on the speed charts. Not only were both cars terrible on Friday but they did not improve any on Saturday as Dillon (30th) and Busch (31st) had very poor qualifying efforts. Needless to say, the Richard Childress Racing duo appears to be struggling in a big way going into Sunday. Considering Busch is normally very strong at Phoenix, this may present a fade opportunity.

Betting Targets

I made a mistake by fading Denny Hamlin in a couple of match-ups last week. Even though one of the match-ups pulled through as a winner with Reddick, I must admit that fading Hamlin was a bad pick. Hamlin looked awful in practice and I failed to remind myself that Hamlin has traditionally been conservative in practices. Some drivers are all out in practice while others are very conservative. Hamlin is in the boat of conservatives which is why his practice times can rarely be reliable. Not to mention, Hamlin has been one of the best in the sport over the last several years. Considering the speed the Toyota teams have shown this weekend and Hamlin’s pole position, I have to put Hamlin at the top of the prospect list going into the weekend. Hamlin is one of the few drivers with multiple wins at Phoenix and he typically excels on the flatter surfaces. As a result, I can’t fault anyone from laying some chalk on the #11 team this weekend.

With that being said, I’m still looking for the guys with better betting value. Ryan Blaney has not shown a ton of speed in practice/qualifying this week but has consistently been one of the best at Phoenix in recent years. I love the value that Blaney is receiving simply based on overreactions from practice/qualifying. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is on the opposite side of betting “value.” I really liked Bell going into the weekend based on the speed he showed during the Phoenix test during the off-season, however Bell is among the betting favorites going into Sunday and is perhaps entering into the terrain of being labeled “overvalued.”

As a result, we are going to need to look a bit deeper in the field to find our sweet spot for betting targets. Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain are among the drivers that bettors can pivot away from the outright favorites to find better value with relative upside. Meanwhile, I believe the likes of Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace may be among the drivers with the best outright value. Both Toyota drivers were very fast in practice. Jones catapulted the start of his career at Phoenix in the Truck Series and appears to have the equipment to match the talent this week. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace has never had a ton of success at Phoenix but appears to be peaking this week which leads me to believe he will exceed expectations. As a result, both drivers are quality H2H targets going into Sunday!

2024 Shriners Children’s 500 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ross Chastain +1000 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1000 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1100 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Denny Hamlin -145 over William Byron (2 units)
Bubba Wallace -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Josh Berry +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)