2024 SciAps 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 22nd, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

Last week, Sam Mayer scored his 2nd victory of the season joining the likes of Austin Hill, Chandler Smith, and Shane Van Gisbergen as the only full-time drivers this season with multiple wins. At the beginning of the year, it appeared Chandler Smith had emerged as the series favorite for the championship but that race has heated up in recent weeks from several competitors. This Saturday the competition heats up in a big way as several big names from the Cup Series join the action for the running of the SciAps 200 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in what promises to be an intriguing event!

Alex Bowman and Christopher Bell are among the big names that will be competing in Loudon on Saturday. While Bowman has struggled throughout his career at New Hampshire and has admittedly entered this race to help his performance for Sunday’s USA Today 301, Christopher Bell will be competing in this event with expectations of winning and essentially nothing else. For those unaware, Bell has been outstanding at New Hampshire throughout his career. In 3 career starts at Loudon in the Xfinity Series, Bell has 3 straight wins and has led the most laps in each of those events. In the Cup Series, Bell has another win and runner-up finish in just 4 starts. Needless to say, New Hampshire has been one of his best tracks and that is the reason he will be a big favorite on Saturday yet again!

Despite Bell’s status as the outright favorite going into Saturday, there are still plenty of unknowns especially after Mother Nature washed out practice and qualifying on Friday. As a result, drivers will enter Saturday’s SciAps 200 without any practice which will undoubtedly put pressure on teams that will need to nail the setup without the luxury of on-track activities. More importantly, the Xfinity Series has been rather wide open this season with a vast array of different contenders from week to week. Can we expect some surprise stories on Saturday and how should we approach this race from a betting standpoint? Those are the major questions that we hope to answer and pave the way for a profitable betting card!

Handicapping New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1-mile flat oval often named the “Magic Mile.” The extremely flat corners make both corner entry and corner exit difficult. Drivers will have to use heavy brakes to get the car slowed down on entry and will attempt to keep the rear turns underneath the car on corner exit. It is very easy to overdrive the corners at NHMS and it is also very easy to burn the rear turns from excess wheel spin; especially in the Xfinity Series cars.

As a result, the drivers that excel in Loudon are usually the same drivers that excel at other flat surfaces like Richmond, Phoenix, and perhaps Martinsville even though all of those tracks have varying differences from each other. Another important note is that long-run speed is usually a point of focus because cautions tend to trend on the infrequent side. While the SciAps 200 is not a long race by any stretch of the imagination, don’t be surprised if long-run speed still plays an important factor towards the outcome. The good news from these racing conditions is that drivers are usually more important than the equipment which is ideal for handicapping as long as we target the drivers that excel at this style of racing.

Handicapping Notes

While we documented Bell’s incredible success at New Hampshire throughout his career, it’s worth noting how other drivers have performed as well. In Saturday’s SciAps 200, Justin Allgaier is the only other former winner at Loudon that will be in the field. Allgaier got his victory in the 2022 race and has finished 3rd or better in 3 of his last 4 starts in Loudon. Due to Allgaier’s success at Richmond and other flat tracks, he is definitely among the group of drivers that could contend on Saturday. Both Chandler Smith and Austin Hill have shared similar narratives. Smith actually finished in the runner-up position in this race last year with Kaulig Racing and is likely a decent pivot option against Bell if we can find a good number in terms of betting odds.

Other important notes include the fact Cole Custer has never led a lap in 4 starts in Loudon, Sam Mayer’s best finish is 15th in 3 career starts, and Brandon Jones best career finish at Loudon is 6th in 6 career starts. For Alex Bowman, he last raced at New Hampshire in the Xfinity Series back in 2016. Bowman’s only two starts in the Xfinity Series at Loudon have resulted in finishes of 8th and 10th. Obviously, Bowman has been active each year in the Cup Series at Loudon but only has a single top 10 finish (9th) in the last 10 races. Beyond the top names, I would point to guys like Carson Kvapil and perhaps Sheldon Creed as worthy of H2H consideration. Creed appears to be finding some momentum which we expected earlier this season. Meanwhile, Kvapil has excellent short-track skills and has looked great in his limited starts so far this season.

Betting Targets

The betting odds on Christopher Bell are rightfully disgusting. I actually believe Bell has a chance to sweep the weekend despite how hard it is to win in the Cup Series with today’s cars. Bell is an excellent parlay option and perhaps worthy of single action if you don’t want to chase value. I will likely have Bell in some form of parlay and will still look to find opportunities with Chandler Smith and Sheldon Creed as guys that could surprise especially if the #20 has trouble. The JGR cars have been really good at the short tracks this season and that is my reason for the pivot options between Smith and Creed.

While there will not be a ton of value in futures (win) bets, I’m hoping to get a variety of match-ups on Saturday. Unfortunately, odds-makers have been sort of conservative with the number of match-ups offered this season but I feel like this is the type of track where sharp bettors could take advantage. Going into Saturday blind, my favorite H2H targets include Corey Heim and Carson Kvapil. Both young drivers have been excellent on the short tracks and have the skill set to outperform their peers yet again. Kvapil will be starting at the rear due to qualifying being canceled and perhaps that will produce some extra value. Meanwhile, Heim will be starting in 7th and is likely among the better talents in the field despite the equipment. Heim finished 4th at Richmond and I would not rule out another top 5 from his ceiling on Saturday. Deeper low-tier options for H2H and/or fantasy include Jeremy Clements and Jeb Burton who have both performed well at Loudon in recent years.

Draftkings Optimal Xfinity Lineup for New Hampshire

2024 SciAps 200 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Chandler Smith +450 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.75 unit)
Corey Heim +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Justin Allgaier -110 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Austin Hill -105 over Sammy Smith (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +120 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Corey Heim +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Carson Kvapil +1100 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christopher Bell +140 wins SciAps 200
Brad Keselowski +350 Top Ford in USA Today 301
Risking 1 unit to win: +980