2024 Raptor King of Tough 250 Race Picks
Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday February 24th, 2024. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
Shortly after the conclusion of the Truck Series race on Saturday, the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to take center stage at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the running of the Raptor King of Tough 250. Last week, Austin Hill continued his superspeedway dominance by winning his 3rd straight opener at Daytona International Speedway. Hill has arguably become one of the greatest Xfinity Series superspeedway talents of all-time which also includes back to back wins in the last two spring races at Atlanta. Needless to say, Hill will be the guy to beat once again on Saturday when the green flag waves for the Raptor King of Tough 250!
The unfortunate aspect about Hill’s dominance at the superspeedways is that he has been an overwhelming betting favorite at these events for the last two years, leaving little room for profitable margins. For Saturday’s Xfinity Series return to Atlanta, Hill is once again listed with disgustingly low betting odds. While I could not fault anyone for backing the #21 again this week, I still lean towards chasing better betting odds with our selections especially when you consider the strength of talent in the Xfinity Series this season which includes talents like John Hunter Nemechek, Sam Mayer, AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, and several others that are capable of pulling out a victory.
While Atlanta is considered a mini-superspeedway since the repave/reconfiguration in 2022, the racing product at this track has been slightly less volatile. There is less room for big momentum runs caused by the draft which seems to keep cars in-line. For that reason, I tend to believe track position/fast cars are more important at a track like Atlanta compared to the traditional superspeedways at Daytona and Talladega. However if a driver can put themselves in position towards the front of the field late in this event, anyone still has a shot to pull off a victory. Therefore, we will still have some action on the underdogs in hopes of a big payday winner!
Handicapping Strategy
Handicapping strategy will be consistent with most superspeedway races this week. As described in the Truck Series preview, we must continue to target drivers with optimal betting value to maintain sufficient ROI with our overall betting card. Perhaps this week at Atlanta, we have more of an appetite to consider the drivers in the betting “favorite” category based on the racing conditions that I expect and described above. However, I believe that all picks this week should be relatively conservative from an overall risk standpoint.
Looking Back
On Friday, Austin Hill’s teammate in rookie Jesse Love won his 2nd straight pole to start off his Xfinity Series career. Love and Hill actually qualified 1-2 on the front row for the Rapton King of Tough 250. While we know Hill is the guy to beat, Love actually led a race-high 34 laps in last week’s race at Daytona before getting caught-up in an accident. For those that may not have followed Love’s career to this point, he is likely the most promising talent in any of the lower touring series and he is going to be a threat at several venues this year. If the two Richard Childress Racing teammates can avoid trouble on Saturday, Love and Hill could be a dangerous duo especially following the strength they displayed last week at Daytona.
Speaking of Daytona, I would look back to last week’s race as a reference point because this week’s racing product at Atlanta is not too different from what we saw last week at Daytona. In last week’s race, Riley Herbst, Cole Custer, and Justin Allgaier were some of the guys that posted the best performance results over the entire race. I have been a big fan of Herbst’s superspeedway skills in recent years and I continue to believe he is an underappreciated talent at this style of racing. Additionally, I would point to guys like Parker Retzlaff, Sammy Smith, and Parker Kligerman as another trio of drivers that outperformed their expectations. Potential other notable mentions from the lower talent pool includes impressive Daytona performances from guys like Ryan Sieg and Anthony Alfredo. Obviously last week’s performances do not guarantee anything this week, but these are some of the guys that should be kept in the conversation this week as potential betting targets.
Betting Targets
I must admit that I was disappointed with betting odds following qualifying. The likes of AJ Allmendinger, Jess Love, Riley Herbst, and John Hunter Nemechek are all listed at 10-1 odds or less behind the overall betting favorite in Austin Hill who is listed at disgusting 3-1 odds. Needless to say, I am finding it very hard to find value from the drivers that I expect have the higher likelihood of running upfront. For that reason and the unpredictability of this style of racing, I am essentially being forced into a very conservative betting approach for this event.
With that being said, I do believe guys like Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, and even Ryan Truex have some betting value based on current odds. Custer and Allgaier are top-tier talents and are getting nearly twice the betting number as some of the other so-called favorites mentioned above. Meanwhile if bettors are going to chase some long shot possibilities, I believe Jeb Burton, Ryan Sieg, and Parker Retzlaff are among the better options for a lottery style winner. Burton has captured multiple wins at the superspeedways and while he may not have the best equipment for a place like Atlanta, I still like his talent. Meanwhile, Sieg and Retzlaff were very strong last week and have flashed superspeedway talent before. Like Burton, I just believe they are going to need help winning the track position battle.
2024 Raptor King of Tough 250 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Jesse Love +1000 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +1000 (.75 unit)
Cole Custer +1400 (.5 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1600 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +3500 (.25 unit)
Ryan Sieg +5000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Jeb Burton +550 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
