2024 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 8th, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: USA

After several weeks of drama surrounding the drivers that would make the playoffs and fight for a championship, NASCAR’s Cup Series will begin the playoffs with a wild card right out of the gates when the green flag waves for Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This opening act in the playoffs will feature superspeedway style racing which is some of the most unpredictable racing on the planet. Just two weeks ago, Harrison Burton delivered an unheard of upset at Daytona for his first career win which also gave the Wood Brothers a playoff berth. Needless to say, this style of racing can produce big upset winners and big paydays if you are lucky enough to pick a winner!

I mentioned in yesterday’s Xfinity Series preview that Atlanta Motor Speedway has changed a bit in the mere 2 years since the repave and reconfiguration that turned this 1.5 mile rugged layout into a mini-superspeedway. During the 2022 races, drivers were nearly full throttle the entire lap at Atlanta, at least when they were not saving fuel. However, the speedway has lost some of that initial grip from the fresh repave which means that handling and car control can be more important especially over the longer green flag runs. In my opinion, this racetrack is more of an intermediate 1.5 mile speedway and superspeedway hybrid rather than a true superspeedway.

Additionally, Atlanta Motor Speedway is more narrow than the likes of Daytona and Talladega where 3 and 4 wide racing can be rather common. At Atlanta, the racing surface yields mostly two-wide racing as things can get very sketchy with 3-wide racing. Since there are less lanes and racing surface at Atlanta, this race can be described as a battle for track position because you simply are not going to see the big runs that you would at the true superspeedway venues. For those reasons, I am expecting we will see a similar race that we saw in today’s Xfinity Series where the faster teams/cars are battling at the front of the field and controlling the track position narrative. However, we can’t rule out that some late race cautions or strategy calls could produce a volatile finish that we would expect with this style of racing. I just believe we should handicap this race differently from the superspeedway narrative.

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

From a betting perspective, we can utilize the superspeedway style betting odds to our advantage and select more drivers on our betting card in hopes to cash a winner. However, we must ensure we are leaning towards value with our selections to ensure the ROI that our betting card yields is sufficient for the volatility of this style of racing. In simple terms, most of our selections should be around drivers in the intermediate to dark horse betting range with a couple of strong betting anchors to solidify our lineup while still yielding our desired ROI. Despite my expectations for this race, we still saw a surprise winner with Daniel Suarez back in February and we must make sure our lineup has a few dark horses in case we see yet another superspeedway upset winner!

From a handicapping perspective, I believe bettors will have to consider value when making selections but should not overlook the drivers/teams that have produced strong speed at the superspeedways. Despite the notion that these superspeedway races are like handicapping the lottery, there are several teams that have spent large amounts of time running at the front of the field in these types of races. If we can make the right selections to identify the fast teams/drivers, we have a much higher likelihood of cashing with those drivers at Atlanta compared to other superspeedways simply because it is easier to protect track position. Therefore, we should put heavy emphasis into performance stats that support the drivers that have run towards the front throughout the season at the superspeedway venues.

Dynamic Averages – Superspeedways

Luckily, our dynamic averages have compiled the last 5 superspeedway races to shed insight into the performance trends. If you look at this data, it may surprise bettors to see names like Austin Cindric and Kyle Busch ranked #1 and #3 in average driver ratings. Busch is currently experiencing the biggest winless streak of his career and Cindric has only won once at the Cup Series level in the 2022 Daytona 500. With that being stated, both drivers have produced very solid performance metrics. In fact, both drivers rank 1-2 in average running position over the last 5 superspeedway races which is another metric I pay close attention towards when handicapping these events.

Meanwhile if we look further down the loop data statistics, you may also notice names like Kyle Larson, Todd Gilliland, and Michael McDowell who are all among the top 7 drivers in average driver rating. Despite Larson being one of the best drivers in the sport, he has been downright awful in superspeedway races and has never posted a top 5 finish. Meanwhile, Gilliland led a bunch of laps in the February race at Atlanta and has been showing improved speed in recent weeks from Front Row Motorsports. McDowell has struck pay dirt at the superspeedways in recent years and is a well-known above average superspeedway talent. In fact, McDowell won the pole for Sunday’s Quaker State 400 and will have the luxury of starting at the front of the field. While I don’t believe starting positions are necessarily a big deal, it does not hurt to start the race with great track position.

Betting Targets

Though I expect this race to be a battle of track position, these teams and cars are so equal that it will obviously create some back and forth at the front of the field. I do believe it will be more difficult to gain track position without help of strategy on pit road. For those reasons, bettors should have several selections. Among the favorites, I will gladly take Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney in the #1 position. I lean towards Logano simply because I believe he is among the best at this style of racing. With the way the Ford teams have found speed in recent weeks, I would not be surprised if they are very strong yet again.

Personally, I think Kyle Busch is an excellent pivot option among the favorites or just a good selection in general. Despite the concerns of Richard Childress Racing, Busch has shown phenomenal speed at the big tracks and let’s not forget that the #8 team was very close to winning Daytona just two weeks ago. For value plays in the intermediate betting range, I am attracted to guys like William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric for different reasons. Byron and Reddick have been among the best drivers in the Cup Series this year and are really underrated superspeedway style talents. Meanwhile, I mentioned Cindric’s strong performances at these venues in our loop data metrics above. Simply put, I believe these guys offer sufficient ROI to sprinkle across lineups.

If we are looking at deeper options into the field for prop bet or fantasy formats, I believe Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, and Harrison Burton are among the additional drivers that should be considered in plus value formats. Berry and Gilliland will be both starting from the 2nd row which lessens their fantasy value. However, both drivers have shown ascending trends and have higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson are among the names that appear to be destined to outrun their current betting odds. Burton won two weeks ago at Daytona and Gragson is among the underrated superspeedway talents. Both drivers are from the Ford camp which has shown excellent speed. As a result, I expect those drivers to have chances at quality finishes!

2024 Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 Quaker State 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1200 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)
Austin Cindric +1800 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2200 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +3300 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -120 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)