2024 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 3rd, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX
On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing in Sin City for the running of the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Through the opening two weeks of the season, the Cup Series has produced two different winners in William Byron (Daytona) and Daniel Suarez (Atlanta) stemming from superspeedway style racing. However, the superspeedway style racing, seen over the last two weeks, will be put in the rear-view mirror over the foreseeable future as the “traditional” ovals take over the schedule starting with this weekend’s return to Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
This weekend’s Pennzoil 400 will be very important towards establishing new performance trends that have changed over the offseason. We know that the Ford and Toyota teams have new bodies with the Ford Mustang Dark Horse and the Toyota Camry XSE. Will those body changes improve the performance from those manufacturers or will there be a learning curve? While the answers to those questions may not be immediately known, rest assured all teams will be putting their best effort this weekend because when the Cup Series returns to Las Vegas on October, 20th, it will be the opening race in the Round of 8 which will be a pivotal race in the playoffs towards deciding the championship 4 contenders.
Needless to say, all of the playoff caliber teams hope to put together a strong effort this weekend and come away with notes to carry over the next few weeks and perhaps to bring back in the fall when it’s time for the playoffs. From a betting standpoint, we will likely remain a bit conservative with our betting picks. If you look back over the last several years of our betting picks, we typically start out relatively slow before gaining momentum throughout the year. I believe there are clear reasons for slow starts because every year presents new performance trends. Luckily, we have had two superspeedway wins in the last two Cup Series races to help build some cushion but we are not quite in a position to increase our wagers to an aggressive risk level until we are a bit more confident towards the in-season performance trends.
Dynamic Averages
If we look back to the last 5 races at intermediate 1.5 mile speedways with our dynamic averages, we can see that the Ford drivers did not perform well with the exception of Ryan Blaney who ended the year on a hot streak. Most of the top drivers/teams were from Hendrick Motorsports and the Toyota brigade. Obviously, Kyle Larson and William Byron were consistently the best drivers on the 1.5 mile speedways in 2023. Byron won last year’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas and had other wins at Darlington, Atlanta, and Texas which points to strength shown at the intermediate layouts. Meanwhile, Larson did not have as many wins but seemed to always be in the fight for the checkered flag at these types of tracks. Larson did win the fall race at Las Vegas and posted an impressive 114.7 average driver rating over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile speedways (not including Atlanta).
Aside from the Hendrick Motorsports duo between Larson and Byron, it was mostly strength from the Toyotas that set the performance trendline in 2023 at the 1.5 mile speedways. Denny Hamlin was consistently strong and captured a win at Kansas, Christopher Bell won the last race at a non-superspeedway 1.5 mile track at Homestead and also finished runner-up at Las Vegas in the fall, and Tyler Reddick led the majority of his laps on the intermediate speedways last season which included a win at Kansas. Towards the end of the 2023 season, I believe it was pretty obvious that the Toyotas were clearly the best teams in terms of raw speed and it will be interesting to see if that trend can continue with the new Toyota Camry XSE starting this week at Vegas.
Practice and Qualifying Observations
Following qualifying on Saturday, Joey Logano emerged with the pole with a fast lap of 184.357mph. Logano edged out Kyle Larson by just two one-hundredths of a second and was followed closely by teammate Austin Cindric in 3rd. William Byron and Bubba Wallace rounded out the top 5 qualifying positions. At initial glance, it did not appear that there was a true performance trend among the top qualifying positions. In fact, each manufacturer was well represented in the top 10 starting positions without any clear advantage pointed towards a single manufacturer.
Based on practice observations, Kyle Larson and William Byron both appeared to be really strong. The Hendrick Motorsports duo was 1-2 in most statistical categories which is not much different than the historical trends described above. Aside from Larson and Byron, I thought the 23XI Racing duo of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace both exceeded expectations. Both drivers seemed to have very consistent lap times despite windy weather conditions. It may be worth noting that winds will be calmer on Sunday which may make things a bit more comfortable in the handling department. With that being said, I was a bit surprised that the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas were not as fast, considering the speed from the 23XI brigade. Christopher Bell looked pretty solid but the rest of the JGR stable was way down the speed charts. I still lean towards those drivers racing better on Sunday but this is just purely observations at this point.
*Perhaps notable mentions are necessary for the likes of Zane Smith and Ricky Stenhouse Jr who were both much faster than most people would have expected.
Betting Targets
If we wanted to play the most realistic odds, I think most people could lay money on the Kyle Larson and William Byron duo and call it a day. However, I’m just not sure that betting odds are going to allow much profit margin with that strategy. Larson was a disgusting 4-1 betting favorite before Saturday’s on-track activities and he is not going to get any better in the odds department. For some reason, William Byron is getting much better value than Larson. In fact, Byron’s getting more than twice the value compared to Larson’s betting odds and I believe that margin is too wide making the #24 a clear betting target.
The difficulty comes in trying to identify the drivers that could challenge Larson and Byron for the win. The reality is that the Next Gen Car is very competitive across the entire field and surprise winners are not that uncommon. Based on the historical stats, team momentum, and other handicapping angles that I have put together, I think we could make sound arguments for drivers like Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin are all worthy of betting consideration based on current odds. Hamlin has ballooned to nearly 20-1 odds after a poor showing on Saturday but I just have a strong feeling that the JGR Toyotas will be much better in race conditions.
If we look deeper in the field, I believe we will have numerous options to consider in H2H and prop bet formats. Kyle Busch is a top-tier driver that can be pivoted towards in H2H match-ups. Busch has finished 4th or better in 5 of the last 6 races in his hometown and showed solid speed in practice. Likewise, I believe Ross Chastain deserves a higher ceiling than current betting odds suggest. Chastain was another driver with solid speed in practice and has shown strong trends at Las Vegas in the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I consider Busch/Chastain solid H2H options among the group of drivers right outside the “favorites” category. Even deeper into the field, I am keeping a close eye on Austin Cindric and Zane Smith for potential betting targets in H2H/prop formats. Cindric qualified in the 4th position and is still listed at 50-1 odds. Cindric’s performances are typically linear to his qualifying efforts and perhaps a top 5/top 10 prop is worth consideration. Meanwhile, Zane Smith is a driver that I believe is going to impress throughout the season. Spire Motorsports has been spending a ton of money to become a legitimate force in NASCAR and while they still have a way to go, Smith is one of the more underrated talents in the entire field and I will be looking to target him in any bottom-tier style match-ups.
2024 Pennzoil 400 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
William Byron +650 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1100 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1600 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Tyler Reddick -135 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
2-Team Parlay – Ricky Stenhouse Jr +140 over Michael McDowell/Christopher Bell -150 over Denny Hamlin (+300)(1 unit)
Kyle Busch +250 wins Group 2 (Wallace, Truex, Reddick)(1 unit)
Zane Smith +800 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
