2024 Pennzoil 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 20th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
TV: USA
For the first time since 2019, NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series will return to the historic oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS). In recent years, NASCAR has raced on the road course at IMS but those races never produced the same type of impact compared to the years of history laid down on the oval course. As a result, NASCAR and track officials made the decision to return to the 2.5 mile oval for the first time in several years. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will have the luxury of ushering fans back to oval racing at Indy when the green flag waves for the Pennzoil 250!
From a spectator standpoint, I am very excited to see racing return to the historical oval course. There is no reason NASCAR should be racing on a converted road course at IMS. While that concept could work at other tracks, the history and prestige of IMS from racing at the 2.5 mile iconic surface. From a betting standpoint, I am slightly less excited because it has been several years since we witnessed racing on the oval at Indy. For many of the competitors in the Xfinity Series, this will be their first race at Indianapolis on the oval. Needless to say, we have a lot of unknowns from a historical perspective because most drivers have limited experience on the oval.
Fortunately, we did get some early observations through practices earlier today. Both Xfinity and Cup Series teams participated in full practice sessions on Friday. Therefore, we have some early opinions towards the drivers that have shown early speed. However, I believe that bettors should still approach this race with caution. Similar to last week’s races at Pocono, this weekend’s racing at Indianapolis are going to be centered around the fight for track position. As a result, we should expect varying strategies that will add risks towards potentially impacting our bets this weekend. We will discuss the type of racing and how that impacts our handicapping in the section below:
Handicapping and Betting Strategy for IMS
Due to the fact we have limited track history at IMS, our handicapping strategy should be geared mainly towards practice observations combined with observations we have witnessed throughout the season at similar tracks styles, most notably last week’s races at Pocono. Despite the fact there are major differences between Pocono and Indianapolis, both tracks have always been comparative from a statistical perspective. Simply put, drivers that perform well at one track usually have mirroring results at the other. As a result, we will also make some observations that occurred last week at Pocono which could carry over into Saturday’s Pennzoil 250.
From a betting perspective, Indianapolis Motor Speedway typically produces races that are mainly influenced by pit strategy and track position. Similar to last week’s race at Pocono, Indianapolis does not produce tire wear and the track’s size (2.5 miles) opens more strategy opportunities on pit road. For those reasons, I believe bettors should downgrade bet sizes and seek high-yield opportunities based on betting value. I simply think that is the best betting strategy for the style of racing that we will witness on Saturday.
Practice Observations
For what it’s worth, we don’t know starting positions at the time of this preview because qualifying will not take place until Saturday. While qualifying could impact our opinions, I don’t think we will be big surprises when qualifying takes place. Similar to last week’s race at Pocono, we saw a lot of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard. Therefore, I’m not assuming there will be big handicapping opinion changes based on qualifying results. In Friday’s practice, Chandler Smith laid down the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 166.756mph. However, Smith’s fast lap was actually a mock qualifying run. Smith was among 3 drivers (Conor Daly/Parker Kligerman) that performed mock qualifying runs at the end of practice and may appear to be faster than they actually were on the speed charts.
Aside from the mock qualifying times, I thought practice observations were pretty straightforward. Cole Custer appeared to have the fastest car which is what we saw last week at the comparable Pocono Raceway. In that race, Custer captured his first victory of the season and had the fastest car throughout the race. Custer is once again trending in that direction after posting the best 5-10 lap averages along with teammate Riley Herbst. Herbst actually led the best consecutive 5 lap category but Custer and Justin Allgaier had some of the best outright averages. Allgaier was arguably the best, or 2nd-best car in last week’s race at Pocono, which strengthens my argument that both tracks are very comparable from a handicapping perspective.
Allgaier’s strength may have been expected but perhaps one of the surprises was that all of the other J.R. Motorsports cars struggled in practice. Typically, J.R. Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Stewart-Haas Racing have produced the best raw speed in the Xfinity Series. Raw speed is an important component to winning at Indianapolis. With that being said, I thought the majority of the J.R Motorsports cars were the weakest in terms of raw speed. Sam Mayer, Bradon Jones, and Carson Kvapil all had disappointing lap speeds and consistency. While Allgaier may have prevailed, he also has the most experience at Indianapolis to offset the disadvantage in outright speed. As a result, I am leaning in the opposite direction of the J.R Motorsports cars going into Friday based on practice observations.
Betting Targets
Surprisingly, Austin Hill is listed as the betting favorite mainly because they are using superspeedway engine specs this weekend. However, Indianapolis is far from a superspeedway style race track. As a result, I am forced to believe Hill has been overvalued. Meanwhile, Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier are receiving similar “favorite” style betting odds. Both Custer and Allgaier were among the fastest cars last week at Pocono and have the ideal skill set for a place like Indianapolis. For that reason, I believe the Custer/Allgaier combination has a high win probability despite the disappointing betting odds.
If for some reason the Custer/Allgaier duo are unable to get the job done, I do believe there are legitimate dark horse threats in the likes of Chandler Smith, AJ Allmendinger, and Riley Herbst in the range of intermediate betting options. Allmendinger posted a strong run at Pocono last week and has the experience to warrant another similar performance. Meanwhile, Smith and Herbst seem to be getting relatively generous betting odds based on the speed shown both earlier today and last week at Pocono. Meanwhile, I would throw out names like Carson Kvapil and Ryan Sieg who appear to be undervalued going into Saturday. Both Kvapil and Sieg have shown speed in recent starts and may be worth consideration in prop bet formats that have higher yield.
2024 Pennzoil 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Cole Custer +350 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1200 (.5 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1200 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +1600 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Riley Herbst -130 over Parker Kligerman (2 units)
