2024 Pacific Office Automation 147 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 1st, 2024. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Portland International Raceway
TV: FS1

Shortly after the Craftsman Truck Series puts a bow on the running of the Toyota 200 at Gateway, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the afternoon spotlight for the 2nd leg of Saturday’s double-header which will feature the running of the Pacific Office Automation 147. Unlike the Truck Series and Cup Series who are in Chicago this weekend for racing at World Wide Technology Raceway, the Xfinity Series will be alone at Portland International Raceway for an afternoon of road course racing. Portland International Raceway is relatively new to the Xfinity Series schedule and Saturday’s Pacific Office Automation 147 will mark just the 3rd race since the series debut back in 2022.

While we will obviously be looking at Saturday’s Xfinity Series race as a betting opportunity, I will also be using this race as a learning opportunity for future handicapping. The Xfinity Series runs several road course races throughout the remainder of the season including next week’s stop at Sonoma. In total, the Xfinity Series will race at 5 additional road course venues this season which means Saturday’s return to Portland could be an important measuring stick for future road course races. So far this season, the series has only competed at one road course venue which occurred back in March at Circuit of the Americas.

While the race at COTA probably seems like a distant memory, many fans may have forgotten the way that race ended. Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger both dominated that race and each led a race-high 20 laps a piece. At times in the race, SVG and the Dinger had gapped the field by several seconds. However, both drivers got together during an overtime finish which allowed Kyle Larson to come through and capture the victory. SVG has quickly become one of the best road course talents in NASCAR and Allmendinger is among the best road course talents in history especially in Xfinity Series competition. Based on what we witnessed at COTA, it would be relatively easy to expect both SVG and Allmendinger will be battling for victories with each road course stop this season including Saturday’s Pacific Office Automation 147 at Portland.

Betting Strategy

Typically when we see an overwhelming betting favorite(s), I like to consider the option of chasing better value with dark horses. After all, even the best betting favorites cash at less than a 50% clip which gives us reason to consistently chase better betting value. However, we now have two road course talents that appear to have a tremendous edge over the competition. Since we have yet to witness practice and qualifying sessions which will take place early Saturday, I don’t want to take any unnecessary gambles towards less confident dark horses.

I don’t want to overthink this matter going into Saturday. Instead, I believe we can plan for putting SVG and/or Allmendinger in parlays to maximize their value and perhaps we will see dark horses emerge in sessions on Friday to strengthen our confidence for some outsiders contending. Even if we do see dark horses emerging on Saturday, I don’t believe we are going to lose “value” on those guys as SVG and Allmendinger have completely saturated the odds for the entire field. I believe that is the best way to attack this race from a futures standpoint. Additionally, we will also look for sharp H2H opportunities that will hopefully bring value to our betting cards as well.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I would give the edge to Allmendinger over SVG this week simply based on experience. Allmendinger won the inaugural race at Portland back in 2022 and Kaulig Racing is reportedly unveiling brand new race cars this weekend as they seek to get back to victory lane. As a result, I give Allmendinger the edge as the clear #1 betting target over SVG. Behind the top two guys, it’s perhaps a bigger mystery towards who could sneak into contention. Cole Custer won this race last year despite the fact Allmendinger, SVG, and others were not competing.

While Custer got the victory, Sheldon Creed and Justin Allgaier actually dominated that race which is a good segway towards other potential threats on Saturday. Both Creed and Allgaier are underrated road course talents but often lack the consistency to be considered threats at every road course race. Personally, I consider Sam Mayer an arguably more talented road course driver in the series. Mayer caught fire during the summer months last season winning 3 times at the road courses. In fact if you go back to the race at COTA in March, Mayer finished 3rd despite having a somewhat “off” weekend. Therefore if anyone was looking for another early target, Mayer is considerable in all formats.

Other drivers worthy of keeping on the radar for fantasy/match-up/prop opportunities include Josh Bilicki (driving #19 for JGR) and Anthony Alfredo (2022 pole winner at Portland).

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Update: Qualifying just concluded at Portland International Raceway and Sam Mayer has earned the pole for this afternoon’s Pacific Office Automation 147. Luckily, Mayer was one of our early betting picks and it appears that he has the speed to contend this afternoon. Without much surprise, Shane Van Gisbergen qualified in the 2nd position and appears to have flipped AJ Allmendinger as the outright favorite. Allmendinger actually wrecked in qualifying and backed into the tire barrier. While I don’t believe he will have to go to a backup car, I have not seen anything confirmed at this time.

In practice, I did not see too many surprises based on our pre-session expectations. Perhaps it is worth noting that Austin Hill was among the previously unmentioned names that appeared to have a really solid morning. Hill actually led all drivers with the fastest 5 lap consecutive average and appears to be trending in the right direction. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, and Sheldon Creed were among the names that seemed to be losing stock value. Obviously, I’m not writing off Allmendinger as he typically excels in race conditions. However, we did not see the outright speed from any of those drivers that we expected going into this morning’s sessions.

2024 Pacific Office Automation 147 Race Picks

*FINAL*

AJ Allmendinger +450 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +800 (.75 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sam Mayer -115 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)