2024 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 24th, 2024. 8:30PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

One of the greatest weekends in racing will kick off late Friday at Charlotte Motor Speedway when the Craftsman Truck Series waves the green flag for the running of the North Carolina Education Lottery 200. While there will be several high profile events throughout the weekend in all forms of racing, NASCAR will host 3 straight days of racing at their home site in Charlotte starting with Friday’s Truck Series race, continuing on Saturday in the Xfinity Series, and ending on Sunday with the running of the Coca Cola 600. Needless to say, we will have several betting opportunities throughout the weekend!

Last week, Corey Heim earned his 3rd win of the year at North Wilkesboro and now stands alone with the most wins in the Truck Series this season. Heim and Christian Eckes have easily been the best full-time truck series drivers this season but it is starting to look like Heim is emerging as the guy to beat on a weekly basis. For this week’s NC Education Lottery 200, it will once again be mostly full-time Truck Series competitors that will likely be battling for the victory because the only noteworthy part-time drivers that will be competing include Brett Moffitt who returns to the #1 with TRICON Garage and Kaden Honeycutt who will jump back into the #45 truck with Niece Motorsports.

While many may not be familiar with Honeycutt, he has trended very well in his limited starts in the series finishing no worse than 12th in the last 5 starts. Needless to say, Honeycutt will be among the drivers that we keep an eye on this weekend for H2H match-up and prop bet opportunities. Speaking of trends, we have reached an interesting point in the season where we have just enough in-season data to help our handicapping narratives. I mentioned early in the year that each new season provides new performance trends. For the Truck Series, Friday’s Coca Cola 600 will be the 4th race of the season at a 1.5 mile intermediate layout. As a result, we can look at the prior 3 races on the intermediate layouts and perhaps get a solid foundation for our expectations for the NC Education Lottery 200.

Truck Series Loop Data

I have compiled loop data performance averages for 3 races this season at 1.5 mile speedways which includes races at Las Vegas, Texas, and Kansas. The Truck Series has actually competed at 4 different 1.5 mile speedways this season but since Atlanta yields superspeedway style racing, I have excluded Atlanta from this compilation of in-season performance trends. As you will see in the table below, even at the 1.5 mile speedways Corey Heim has amassed a lucrative 127.7 average rating and 2.0 average finishing position. Behind Heim, Christian Eckes has produced the 2nd best average rating (107.8) followed by Nick Sanchez and Taylor Gray. Sanchez and Gray have not shown some of the “dominator” stats that I like to see out of a potential dark horse via the laps led and fastest lap categories. However, both drivers appear to be at their best on the 1.5 mile speedways.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to our loop data metrics is the underwhelming results from the Thorsport Racing trucks. Ty Majeski who was one of the hottest drivers in the series last year and Ben Rhodes the two-time series champion both have sub 80.0 average ratings. Surprisingly, Matt Crafton has been the best of the Thorsport Racing trucks with a slightly better but still underwhelming 81.1 average rating. Other drivers that also deserve a noteworthy mention for severely underwhelming results includes the likes of Stewart Friesen and Layne Riggs who have been downright forgettable despite being in rather decent equipment. Of course, we should keep in mind that these metrics are from a rather small (3 race) population and are biased to extreme outliers.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Corey Heim	127.7	17.3	3.7	2.0	4.0	45	59	97	435
Christian Eckes	107.8	4.7	6.7	4.3	5.7	0	27	49	435
Nick Sanchez	101.1	13.3	2.7	8.7	8.0	-2	29	22	434
Taylor Gray	95.4	15.0	7.0	12.7	8.7	-8	12	4	432
Rajah Caruth	90.2	5.0	15.0	8.7	14.0	11	23	38	435
Matt Crafton	81.1	17.0	12.0	10.7	12.3	-1	1	0	435
Daniel Dye	79.1	7.0	14.0	13.0	12.7	0	2	4	433
Grant Enfinger	77.1	10.3	10.7	16.7	12.3	-12	3	0	419
Ty Majeski	76.5	6.3	14.3	17.7	16.7	-13	19	40	311
Tanner Gray	73.5	25.3	15.3	11.7	15.7	20	2	0	434
Ben Rhodes	70.9	14.3	13.3	17.7	13.7	-14	0	0	432
Stewart Friesen	68.1	4.7	19.7	18.7	16.7	-31	7	0	432
Chase Purdy	66.3	9.0	10.7	23.0	15.7	-34	2	8	429
Dean Thompson	65.1	20.7	22.7	18.0	18.3	31	9	0	426
Tyler Ankrum	64.7	16.7	23.3	18.7	19.0	23	7	0	268
Layne Riggs	61.8	17.7	16.3	23.7	18.7	-9	5	0	401
Jake Garcia	61.8	10.7	18.7	15.7	18.0	-18	1	0	433
Conner Jones	60.4	21.0	21.5	16.0	19.0	-10	0	0	299
Bret Holmes	59.7	23.7	19.0	16.0	19.7	-3	0	0	434
Bayley Currey	59.5	15.3	18.0	17.7	20.0	19	1	0	430
Ty Dillon	52.0	14.3	23.7	21.3	20.0	-22	1	0	431
Lawless Alan	47.6	25.7	22.3	20.0	22.7	31	0	0	432
Mason Massey	46.7	30.3	24.0	20.7	23.7	16	2	8	432
Matt Mills	43.6	19.0	22.7	26.7	24.0	-38	0	0	422
Timmy Hill	39.2	29.7	27.0	25.0	25.7	-3	0	0	373
Thad Moffitt	33.0	26.3	28.7	27.0	28.3	-10	0	0	265
Spencer Boyd	30.2	29.0	30.7	29.0	30.0	-11	0	0	419

Betting Targets

Once again the Truck Series will be on a compact schedule on Friday which features both practice and qualifying just a few hours prior to the start of the green flag. While I will update everyone with practice/qualifying observations on Friday, I think we clearly know that everyone is chasing Corey Heim going into the weekend with Christian Eckes as a somewhat distant 2nd betting favorite. Personally, I believe Nick Sanchez has the best breakout potential based on current betting odds. The #2 team has been getting stronger in recent weeks and Sanchez has shown his best performances on the 1.5 mile speedways. As a result, I like Sanchez as an immediate betting target in all formats.

Unfortunately, there is not much value in betting odds for the outright win. Even Sanchez, who I believe is a dark horse, is listed at mere 5-1 odds. As a result, I am forced to wait until practice and qualifying concludes on Friday to identify potential dark horses for the outright win that are worth their current betting odds. For H2H match-ups, both Taylor Gray and Kaden Honeycutt appear to have some value in offshore markets. Gray has been rock solid throughout the entire season which is evident in our loop data metrics above. Meanwhile Honeycutt has made the most of his limited starts and appears to be a genuine talent. Another driver who also appears to have a higher ceiling than current betting odds suggest is Connor Mosack. Mosack will be returning to the #7 with Spire Motorsports following a solid run at Kansas several weeks ago, despite not getting the finish to reflect the performance. Mosack is currently listed against bottom-tier talents and he should have much higher upside.

NC Education Lottery 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2024 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Christian Eckes +750 (.75 unit)
Nick Sanchez +750 (.75 unit)
Brett Moffitt +1800 (.5 unit)
Connor Mosack +5500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Connor Mosack -115 over Jake Garcia (3 units)
Kaden Honeycutt -115 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Taylor Gray -110 over Rajah Caruth (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Corey Heim +130 wins NC Education Lottery 200
Kyle Larson +550 wins Coca Cola 600
Risking 1 unit to win: +1395