2024 National Debt Relief 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday November 2nd, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC

Last week, Austin Hill became the 2nd driver to lock themselves into the Xfinity Series Championship with his victory at Homestead. Hill joined AJ Allmendinger who won previously at Las Vegas as the two drivers that have already secured a championship ticket to next week’s finale at Phoenix Raceway. On Saturday, the final two spots for the Xfinity Series Championship will be decided following 250 laps at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the National Debt Relief 250. As things currently stand, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer are in promising spots with a 28 point cushion to the cutline however both drivers are not necessarily safe especially if one of the other playoff drivers can earn a victory. Needless to say, tomorrow’s National Debt Relief 250 will be the final chapter in determining the drivers that will race for the title!

For those that remember, last year’s Round of 8 finale in the Xfinity Series was one of the wildest finishes in recent memory. At the time, teammates Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill tangled which allowed Justin Allgaier to steal a victory on the final lap. We saw similar maneuvers in Friday’s Truck Series race in the closing laps when Christian Eckes moved two different drivers to ensure his championship ticket was punched. Needless to say, this race at Martinsville has historically been more chaotic than any other playoff event including those at the superspeedways. The reason I state these facts is to also remind bettors that this event can be slightly volatile especially for the playoff hopefuls and we should not be surprised if there are some more bold moves in the closing laps of Saturday’s event!

From a betting perspective, these races at Martinsville are usually top heavy with heavy favorites often emerging at the front of the field. In Friday’s Truck Series race, we had 4 drivers listed at 4 to 1 odds or less. For Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, we have another similar narrative with Chandler Smith, Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, and Aric Almirola all receiving 4.5 to 1 odds or less. History tells us that the favorites are usually the drivers that lead the most laps and dominate the track position game. However, I would not rule out the idea of upset winners either. As I mentioned in our Truck Series preview, teams/drivers are going to attempt to mix up the strategy and/or try to steal the track position if given the opportunity. We nearly saw a first time winner with Taylor Gray in the Truck Series race and I believe the possibility is there again on Saturday especially given how the stage breaks are laid out.

Martinsville – Xfinity Notes

• Brandon Jones (2022), Justin Allgaier (2023), and Aric Almirola (2024) are all former winners at Martinsville.
• Aric Almirola’s led 148 laps and posted a 147.6 average driver rating with his victory in the spring race at Martinsville.
• Sammy Smith has posted a 100+ average driver rating in all 4 of his career starts at Martinsville which is the best among all active drivers.
• Justin Allgaier has finished 6th or better in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.
• Cole Custer has a 109.5 average driver rating through 3 career starts at Martinsville. *Custer’s best finish is 3rd
• Sam Mayer has finished 6th or better in 4 of 6 career starts at Martinsville.
• Sheldon Creed has two runner-up finishes in the last 4 starts at Martinsville.
• Parker Kligerman has finished 10th or worse in 3 career starts at Martinsville.
• Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville.
• There have been a minimum of 10 cautions in 9 straight races at Martinsville.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Friday, Parker Retzlaff stole the spotlight from the playoff contenders by winning the pole for the National Debt Relief 250. Retzlaff and Anthony Alfredo were both big surprises as the top two qualifiers and will have the opportunity to lead the field to the green including all of the playoff drivers which qualified in the top 12 positions. While the single lap speeds from Retzlaff and Alfredo were a major storyline following qualifying, I would remind everyone that qualifying results should only be given minimal consideration. Typically, Martinsville will favor the driver that can carry the best long-run speed which is where Aric Almirola excelled during the spring race.

With that being said, Friday’s practice gave us our first opportunity to potentially identify the drivers that may have race winning speed. Cole Custer was among the cars that stood out on the speed charts. Custer and Jesse Love laid down some really impressive lap times early in the session. However, over the course of the practice, I thought Sammy Smith, AJ Allmendinger, and Aric Almirola were among the drivers that looked really strong in terms of long-run speed and were laying down the best lap time towards the end of practice. On the other end of the spectrum, I specifically noted that Sam Mayer, Brandon Jones, and Parker Kligerman were among the big names that appeared to be off in terms of speed.

Betting Targets

The good news for our betting picks is that we have a parlay carrying over from the Truck Series race that has Aric Almirola for the outright win. Therefore if Almirola is able to repeat, we have one of the outright favorites with an opportunity to return tremendous value. For anyone that did not tail that parlay, I do like Almirola’s chances because he has consistently been one of the best drivers on the long-run at the short tracks. Behind Almirola, I think you could make an argument between Justin Allgaier or Cole Custer as another top-tier option among the favorites. I lean towards Allgaier due to his really strong resume at Martinsville and also he has the best value among the favorites. Custer and Chandler Smith simply seem to be overvalued from an odds perspective.

To be honest, I think there is an excellent opportunity that a non-betting favorite could win on Saturday. Sammy Smith has an excellent track record at Martinsville and looked very strong on the long-run. The same could be said for Sheldon Creed who has finished in the runner-up position in 2 of his last 4 starts at Martinsville. I believe both of those drivers could be strong candidates to contend for the outright victory. Smith, Creed, and Allmendinger are all potential H2H targets based on current betting odds. Deeper into the field, Brandon Jones and Parker Retzlaff are guys that I would call out for potential prop bet opportunities. Though I am not a fan of his talent, Jones has several quality runs throughout his career at Martinsville. Meanwhile, I don’t remember any time I have seen a pole winner receive enormous betting value. While I agree Retzlaff’s pole win should not be over exaggerated, I do believe he can be competitive and stay towards the front of the field.

2024 National Debt Relief 250 Optimal Lineup

2024 National Debt Relief 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Justin Allgaier +700 (1 unit)
Sammy Smith +900 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Aric Almirola +105 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Jesse Love -155 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +150 finishes Top 5 (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier -105 over Cole Custer
Chase Briscoe +260 wins Group C for Xfinity 500 (Reddick, Gibbs, Wallace)
Risking 1 unit to win: +600