2024 Mission 200 at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 14th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: USA

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will return to Watkins Glen International to kick off a weekend of racing at one of the most infamous road courses on the schedule. While the Cup Series will have playoff implications on the line on Sunday, the Xfinity Series still has two races remaining before the conclusion of their regular season. More importantly, the entry list for Saturday’s Mission 200 at the Glen features an extremely talented group of drivers that includes William Byron, Ty Gibbs, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Aric Almirola, Connor Zilisch, and others who will join the Xfinity Series regulars for 200 miles of racing at the 2.450 mile aged road course known as Watkins Glen!

For the Xfinity Series, this will be the 5th race of the season at a road course venue. Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG) has dominated the road course events this season winning the last 3, road course style, races at Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago. SVG was actually in position to win the first road course race of the season at Circuit of the Americas back in March. However, SVG and Austin Hill tangled on the last lap which allowed Kyle Larson to steal a victory. Needless to say, SVG has nearly been perfect this season at the road courses in the Xfinity Series and he will be the overwhelming favorite yet again on Saturday.

While SVG will rightfully be the betting favorite on Saturday, there are a lot of talented road course drivers that will be competing which includes former Watkins Glen winners in Ty Gibbs and William Byron. Gibbs won the 2021 race at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series and is a well accomplished road course talent. Meanwhile, Byron is the defending Cup Series winner at Watkins Glen and will pilot the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports. Not to mention, the Xfinity Series regulars feature some very skilled road course talents in the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Sam Mayer, Austin Hill, Sheldon Creed, and others who are all capable of contending for a victory given the right opportunities. Needless to say, there are numerous drivers that deserve betting consideration and may be valuable options if SVG runs into trouble on Saturday!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

From a betting standpoint, we know that there will not be any value in betting SVG for the outright win unless we utilize him in a parlay and we also understand SVG has a high likelihood of winning yet again. The question becomes how much risk do we want to lay for the drivers receiving much better odds behind SVG but with a much lower probability of cashing? Despite the big name brands in Saturday’s field, Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer have produced some of the best performance metrics behind SVG among the Xfinity Series races this season. However, I do have concerns about tire wear this week which usually favors the drivers with experience that know how to manage equipment.

With that being said, I believe bettors can explore some valuable picks behind SVG in terms of the outright win (futures). However, I fully expect the better value to be found in H2H match-ups. Road course races are usually ideal betting events in the form of H2H match-ups and I like the racing conditions at Watkins Glen which tends to cause significant tire wear, reducing the chances of track position influencing the outcome. For those reasons, I believe bettors should spend a considerable amount of time reviewing H2H options because that will be where the sharp plays are likely to produce profits!

Xfinity Series – Road Course Quick Notes

• SVG has produced 130+ average driver rating in all road course races this season. *The best I have ever seen*
• Joey Logano (3), Ty Gibbs, and Sam Mayer are all former Xfinity Series winners at Watkins Glen.
• Ty Gibbs has led a minimum of 25 laps in all 3 career (Xfinity Series) starts at Watkins Glen.
• Austin Hill, Sheldon Creed, Sam Mayer, and Justin Allgaier have produced the best average driver ratings behind SVG among Xfinity Series regulars at the road courses this season.
• Jesse Love and Parker Kligerman have surpassed 95.0 average driver ratings in each of the last two road course races.
• Ford drivers have won 7 of the last 11 races at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series.
• The eventual race winner has started inside the top 5 in 13 of the last 14 Xfinity Series races at Watkins Glen.

Betting Targets

Keep in mind, practice and qualifying will not take place until early Saturday morning which could have some slight impacts to my final handicapping thoughts. However, we know enough about the drivers and the equipment everyone is piloting to produce clear expectations going into Saturday’s race. With that being said, I think Ty Gibbs is easily the biggest threat to dethrone SVG. Gibbs has more experience than SVG at Watkins Glen and is arguably in much faster equipment. While SVG’s dominance at the road courses is unmatched, I would not be surprised to see Gibbs compete for the outright victory.

From an odds standpoint, Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed appear to be criminally undervalued. Both drivers have been very good at the road course venues. In fact, Mayer has won 3 times at the road courses going back to last year which includes a victory at Watkins Glen. Needless to say, both drivers are worthy of consideration simply based on the value in their current odds. I do believe that Connor Zilisch and William Byron are worthy contenders that are slightly outside the range of betting favorites. Byron has a ton of experience at Watkins Glen which includes a Cup Series victory. Meanwhile, Zilisch may be the best rising talent in the sport and is phenomenal at the road courses. Unfortunately, Zilisch simply does not have the “value” in betting odds to warrant strong consideration for his 1st career Xfinity Series start.

Deeper into the field, I will have my eyes on the likes of Parker Kligerman, Jesse Love, and Austin Green are among the names that appear poised to shatter their current projections. Kligerman and Love have produced quality performance results at the road course venues and should be ideal H2H targets based on their current betting odds compared with the drivers receiving similar betting odds. Green finished 4th at Sonoma and I am looking at him as a risky but yet valuable prop bet option due to his skill set.

2024 Mission 200 at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2024 Mission 200 at the Glen Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ty Gibbs +450 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +2200 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -135 over William Byron (2 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Joey Logano +900 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

SVG +110 wins Mission 200 at the Glen
AJ Allmendinger +300 wins Group B (Elliott, Bell, Gibbs)
Risking 1 unit to win: +740