2024 Love’s RV Stop 225 Race Picks

Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday October 4th, 2024. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FS1

All of NASCAR’s touring series will visit the high-banks of Talladega this weekend for superspeedway racing that is bound to shake up the playoffs in each series. On Friday, the Craftsman Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking off the racing weekend with the running of the Love’s RV Stop 225 which will also serve as the opening race in the Round of 8 for the Truck Series Championship. Friday’s Love’s RV Stop 225 at Talladega will serve as an opening wild-card race for this final 3-race stretch before the final four drivers compete for a championship at Phoenix next month. Needless to say, Talladega will serve as an important stop for all of NASCAR’s playoff drivers across all series but especially in the Truck Series as they are already beginning the final round before the championship!

From a betting standpoint, the Truck Series has not competed at a superspeedway since the beginning of the season. The Truck Series schedule opened with superspeedway events at Daytona and Atlanta back in February. However, Friday’s stop at Talladega will mark the first superspeedway style event for Truck Series competitors since the beginning of the season. In February, Nick Sanchez (Daytona) and Kyle Busch (Atlanta) were the winners of the opening two races but everyone should understand that Talladega is the biggest wild-card race of the superspeedways due to the track’s size and width which can produce big runs across all areas of the track. As a result, bettors should approach this race as a very high-risk betting event.

With that being said, we are still going to take aim at some bets throughout this weekend in hopes to hit a big winner. After all, we have 3 different chances to chase down a big winner with this weekend’s races across all series. Unfortunately, I’m just not very convinced that the Truck Series will be the best opportunity for a big underdog style winner. Recent superspeedway races in the Truck Series have yielded few anomalies because equipment/speed play such a big part in keeping teams at the front of the field. In the Xfinity and Cup Series, there is much better parity which seems to allow more opportunities for big winners. The good news is that Talladega still presents opportunities even for those teams without the best speed. However, I think our betting approach for Friday’s Love’s RV Stop 225 will be somewhat conservative as we ramp things up throughout the weekend!

Talladega – Quick Notes

• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 6 Truck Series races at Talladega.
• The race winner has started outside the top 15 in 5 straight Truck Series races at Talladega.
• Grant Enfinger (2016) and Spencer Boyd (2019) are the only former Talladega winners in the field.
• Nick Sanchez and Tyler Ankrum are the only drivers to produce a +100 average driver rating at both Daytona and Atlanta earlier this year.
• Nick Sanchez also led the most laps (25) in last year’s Love’s RV Stop 225.
• Corey Heim has finished in the top 5 in each of his last 3 starts at superspeedways (Talladega 2023, Daytona, Atlanta).
• Bret Holmes (long shot/prop potential) has averaged an 11th place finish (4th also at Daytona) in his last 3 starts at Talladega.
• Kaden Honeycutt (long shot/prop potential) has posted finishes of 6th and 11th in 2 of the last 3 superspeedway races.
• There have been a minimum of 6 cautions in every Truck Series race at Talladega since 2010.

Betting Targets

There will not be any practices on Friday nor are they rarely useful for handicapping superspeedway style races. With that being said, I’m basing my targets on the drivers that have routinely put themselves in position to win these races given the relatively small population of superspeedway races in the Truck Series. Using that formula, Corey Heim and Tyler Ankrum stand out as desirable betting targets. Heim has been fantastic at these races from a results perspective but just has not gotten that breakthrough superspeedway win. Typically Heim is in the 2-1 to 3-1 betting range on most weekends due to his dominance in the series but we can get him for nearly 3x that value for Talladega and I believe his performance at the superspeedways constitute legitimate betting consideration.

Tyler Ankrum and Nick Sanchez also deserve betting consideration from a performance perspective. Personally, I just wish both drivers had better betting odds. It’s worth also mentioning that Ankrum’s strong performances at the superspeedways essentially came in the first two races of the season. If you remember, Ankrum had a real hot start to the season in the speed department but has fallen back to mediocrity. Therefore, perhaps Ankrum is a driver trending in the wrong direction going into Talladega. Further back in the field, Ty Majeski and Connor Zilisch are both top talents with pretty solid betting value. Meanwhile, Taylor Gray, Kaden Honeycutt, and Dean Thompson are among the long shots that I am looking to bring value to betting lineups in both futures and prop bet formats.

2024 Love’s RV Stop 225 Optimal Lineup

2024 Love’s RV Stop 225 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Corey Heim +750 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1400 (.75 unit)
Connor Zilisch +1400 (.75 unit)
Kaden Honeycutt +2000 (.5 unit)
Dean Thompson +3500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Dean Thompson -115 over Bayley Currey (2 units)
Dean Thompson +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Spencer Boyd +2000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)