2024 Long John Silver’s 200 Race Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday April 5th, 2024. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FS1
All of NASCAR’s touring series will be in action this weekend at Martinsville Speedway which will lead to 3 straight days of racing and betting opportunities! The Craftsman Truck Series will kick things off at the half-mile paperclip late Friday with the running of the Long John Silver’s 200. So far this season, the Truck Series has produced 5 different race winners through the opening 5 races. In the last race at COTA, Corey Heim earned his first victory of the season and now returns to Martinsville as the defending race winner of the Long John Silver’s 200. We have already taken Heim again this week with our early betting picks and our focus will shift towards other drivers that may also deserve betting attention!
Once again the Truck Series’ opening race of the weekend will feature a condensed on-track schedule with practice, qualifying, and then the running of the Long John Silver’s 200 all taking place late Friday afternoon. As a result, we will have limited time between the end of qualifying and the green flag which means the majority of our bets may have to be placed prior to on-track activities. Luckily, I don’t think the weekend schedule hurts us in a big way because Martinsville is one of those tracks where driver input outweighs equipment/setups. More importantly, there are not really any powerhouse teams in the Truck Series to give anyone a big equipment advantage. Therefore, we can take aim at the best drivers/skill sets with a fair amount of confidence.
The only downside to racing at Martinsville is that this small half-mile is heavily dependent upon track position. Any mistakes on pit roads, blown tires, or small mishaps can put a driver towards the back at a track where passing is very difficult. Those small blunders could be the difference between winning and losing bets. Not to mention, it is very easy for drivers to get into accidents because of the tight racing. For those reasons, we don’t want to overextend ourselves from a risk perspective and that will be the narrative over the course of all 3 races this weekend. However, we still should have solid, sharp opportunities to produce profits because these racing conditions are ideal for handicapping if we can avoid bad luck.
Betting Targets
For tomorrow’s Long John Silver’s 200, Sammy Smith is listed as the betting favorite however I’m not sure if I agree with oddsmakers. Smith currently drives the #8 for J.R. Motorsports in the Xfinity Series and has 1 career victory stemming from last year at Phoenix. While Smith is obviously a talented prospect, he has just 1 career start in the Truck Series which occurred at Daytona last year. Needless to say, Smith has never been in a truck at a short-track and I question whether he deserves to be an outright betting favorite. Meanwhile, Corey Heim has easily been the best driver at the short-tracks in the Truck Series going back to last year and is the defending winner of this race; a race he dominated by leading 82 of 124 laps to beat Kyle Busch. Needless to say, Heim is my clear #1 going into tomorrow’s race.
I think the bigger unknown is the drivers behind Smith and Heim that could sneak into competition. Christian Eckes is an obvious choice given the speed he has shown throughout the season. However, I am going to leave Eckes out of the conversation because his betting odds are so oversaturated. The fun thing about Martinsville in the Truck Series is that most drivers do not have a ton of experience at this particular track which leaves the door open for surprise stories. My picks to challenge at the front of the field are from the likes of Grant Enfinger and Ty Majeski who appear to have solid momentum at the moment. Enfinger is a defending Martinsville winner (2020) and consistently performs well on flatter surfaces. Meanwhile, Majeski is among the best talents in the series. Not only has Majeski been strong at Martinsville in prior Truck Series starts but he has performed well at Martinsville in other series as well. I would also mention that Majeski performed really well at North Wilkesboro last year which has some outreaching similarities to Martinsville especially on corner exit. As a result, Majeski and Enfinger should be considered in all betting formats.
If you want to look for potential deeper options for betting and fantasy purposes, I have eyes closely on the likes of Tanner Gray, William Sawalich, Layne Riggs, and Ben Rhodes are among the names that I will be watching during Friday’s practice. I believe all of those drivers have the ability to have high ceilings on Friday but I am concerned with their consistency. Gray and Riggs are perhaps the sharp selections from the group. Gray has shown some excellent results at Martinsville with two top 5 finishes in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Riggs has had a slow start to the season despite being with the defending championship #38 team. I believe Martinsville is the perfect track to get the #38 team back in the right direction because it suits Riggs’ driving style. However, perhaps we still need confirmation from practice and qualifying before pulling the trigger on any H2H/prop style wagers.
Practice Observations – Final Thoughts
Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded at Martinsville Speedway with Ty Majeski earning the pole with a lap of 19.417 which set a track record. I thought all of our early selections, including Majeski, looked strong. Corey Heim and Christian Eckes appear to be deserving of favorite status with Eckes likely being the biggest threat to thwart our betting selections. Layne Riggs also had his best (3rd) qualifying result of the season which bodes well for our H2H selection. Riggs definitely has some prop/H2H appeal even after qualifying. Aside from the guys we were expecting to perform well this weekend, I would also give notable shoutouts to guys like Nick Sanchez and Dean Thompson who both had solid afternoons in both sessions. Meanwhile, I would be selling stock on popular names like Sammy Smith, Grant Enfinger, and Matt Crafton who all had underwhelming sessions headed into tonight’s race!
2024 Long John Silver’s 200 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Corey Heim +450 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +650 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +2200 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Early match-ups and props courtesy of Bovada!
Christian Eckes -130 over Sammy Smith (2 units)
Layne Riggs -110 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Tanner Gray +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
