2024 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 28th, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: USA
While the Craftsman Truck Series and the Cup Series just concluded their first round of the playoffs last week at Bristol, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will be kicking off their playoffs on Saturday with the running of the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway. As crazy as that sounds, NASCAR’s playoffs do not align among all touring series. However, the Xfinity and Cup Series schedule will align over the final 7 races and will follow the same format that feature 3 rounds of playoffs action, (Round of 12, Round of 8, Championship 4) including 3 races in each round, and 4 drivers being eliminated each round until the championship four battles it out for a single race championship at Phoenix!
For Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300, this marks the Xfinity Series’ first race at a true 1.5 mile intermediate layout since the Coke 600 weekend back in May. Xfinity teams/drivers recently competed at Atlanta but Atlanta is now considered a superspeedway and also uses the superspeedway rules package. With that being said, the Xfinity Series has produced just 3 races at true 1.5 mile intermediate venues this year. John Hunter Nemechek won the first 1.5 mile race of the season back at Las Vegas, Sam Mayer pulled out a wild last lap winner at Texas, and Chase Elliott spoiled the Xfinity Series party at Charlotte in May. Therefore, the Xfinity Series has not visited many 1.5 mile speedways this year which could raise some concerns going into this weekend’s playoff opener for both teams and bettors alike.
With that being said, we are at the time of the season when teams have found the majority of the speed that they are going to find this season. While there will be some minor gains/losses, we can look back on how the Xfinity Series regulars competed in those 3 races earlier this season at 1.5 mile speedways to see how everyone has performed at these horsepower/speed style racetracks. From a handicapping standpoint, I believe in-season data points will be very helpful this week but we will also utilize Saturday’s early practice/qualifying session as a strong observation perspective before we finalize any betting picks this week. For now, let’s move forward towards identifying those in-season trends!
Xfinity Series 1.5 Mile Loop Data
Since I do believe that in-season trends matter at this point of the season, I wanted to take a look at the Xfinity Series’ loop data metrics for the 3 races this season on true intermediate layouts! While our sample size may be small, it’s easy to identify the strength of Justin Allgaier who leads all drivers with an impressive 115.4 average driver rating. Despite not winning at Las Vegas, Texas, nor Charlotte, Allgaier has led laps in every race and has also produced a ton of laps inside the top 5 positions. Needless to say, Allgaier may be the safe play as the favorite going into the weekend. Behind Allgaier, it turns into more of a guessing game. Cole Custer, Chandler Smith, Brandon Jones, Ryan Sieg, AJ Allmendinger, and Austin Hill have all performed consistently strong with very respectable performance stats.
If we look further down the loop data metrics, we also may start to notice names like Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, and Riley Herbst as names that have not been at the front of the field near as much as most would expect. Despite the Texas win, Mayer’s stats have been underwhelming at the 1.5 mile speedways. Meanwhile, Creed and Herbst has emerged championship dark horses throughout the 2nd half of the season. However, both dark horses have produced some of the worst stats this season at the 1.5 mile speedways among the championship contenders. Additionally, I would also put Shane Van Gisbergen on an even lower tier. SVG has won 3 road course races this season but his performance at these types of tracks have been really bad. Needless to say, these are the things that we will have to keep in mind as we analyze betting match-ups and try to identify betting value this weekend!
*Data reflects races at Las Vegas, Texas, and Charlotte:
| Driver | Avg. Driver Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Justin Allgaier | 115.4 | 17.0 | 9.3 | 15.3 | 6.7 | 88 | 85 | 168 | 576 |
| Cole Custer | 102.1 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 13.0 | 7.7 | -6 | 16 | 1 | 584 |
| Chandler Smith | 101.8 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 10 | 67 | 100 | 600 |
| Brandon Jones | 101.1 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 600 |
| Ryan Sieg | 99.4 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 57 | 11 | 17 | 600 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 98.7 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 600 |
| Austin Hill | 97.0 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 27 | 12 | 31 | 598 |
| Sammy Smith | 91.4 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 11.0 | -5 | 4 | 0 | 600 |
| Sam Mayer | 86.2 | 12.3 | 16.7 | 14.3 | 17.7 | 50 | 30 | 49 | 407 |
| Riley Herbst | 83.8 | 11.7 | 14.3 | 23.3 | 14.7 | -6 | 36 | 0 | 428 |
| Taylor Gray | 81.6 | 9.0 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 400 |
| Sheldon Creed | 79.5 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 27.0 | 15.7 | -53 | 14 | 11 | 516 |
| Jesse Love | 79.4 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 18.0 | 13.3 | -37 | 11 | 15 | 597 |
| Corey Heim | 73.6 | 16.5 | 19.0 | 15.0 | 17.5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 400 |
| Josh Williams | 71.4 | 30.0 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 18.7 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 599 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 70.8 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 599 |
| Parker Kligerman | 68.3 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 24.3 | 18.7 | -19 | 7 | 4 | 471 |
| Jeb Burton | 65.4 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 24.0 | 19.0 | -12 | 1 | 0 | 595 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 59.8 | 22.0 | 24.0 | 22.7 | 21.0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 590 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 59.2 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 23.7 | 22.7 | -22 | 2 | 0 | 515 |
| Kyle Sieg | 58.4 | 28.0 | 21.0 | 17.7 | 22.7 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 598 |
| Brennan Poole | 58.3 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 23.3 | -34 | 2 | 0 | 589 |
| Jeremy Clements | 57.0 | 19.7 | 24.3 | 18.0 | 23.3 | -8 | 2 | 0 | 597 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 54.8 | 29.0 | 26.7 | 23.3 | 25.0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 427 |
| Leland Honeyman | 54.7 | 25.0 | 27.0 | 24.0 | 22.7 | -26 | 2 | 0 | 596 |
| Ryan Ellis | 45.5 | 27.0 | 24.7 | 25.0 | 26.3 | -28 | 0 | 0 | 596 |
| Patrick Emerling | 38.9 | 31.7 | 28.0 | 30.3 | 29.3 | -56 | 0 | 0 | 584 |
| Garrett Smithley | 36.7 | 28.3 | 32.7 | 29.0 | 30.3 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 591 |
| Dawson Cram | 33.4 | 31.0 | 33.3 | 31.0 | 32.7 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 582 |
| Blaine Perkins | 31.8 | 28.7 | 33.3 | 33.7 | 32.0 | -48 | 0 | 0 | 527 |
| Joey Gase | 30.0 | 37.5 | 32.5 | 30.0 | 33.0 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 393 |
Betting Targets
I am going to take it very conservatively going into Saturday morning’s sessions and I will update everyone with practice observations and final thoughts after those sessions are complete. With that being said, I think there is enough betting value to warrant immediate action on Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones. While Allgaier is currently listed among the betting favorites, I would not mind locking-in his current value since I will be using it in a parlay in effort to produce more ROI. Jones on the other hand is worth immediate single-bet action. At 18-1 odds, Jones is a two-time Kansas winner and is popping as the 4th best driver thus far this season on the 1.5 mile speedways. While I hate betting on Jones because he always lets me down, the numbers and the value work for immediate betting consideration!
From a sharp perspective, I consider Sheldon Creed another driver worthy of immediate betting consideration. Creed is getting somewhat generous odds considering he has been among the best of the betting favorites in recent weeks. After another string of runner-up finishes in recent weeks, Creed comes to Kansas where he finished 3rd last year and has shown the wheelman skill set required to win at Kansas. Meanwhile deeper in the betting field, I would also call out names like Jesse Love and Ryan Sieg as drivers who have high ceilings despite what current betting odds suggests. Sieg may have some of the least powerful equipment among the guys we have named thus far. However, Sieg nearly won Texas and has shown his best speed at the 1.5 mile layouts. Meanwhile, Love struggled earlier this year at these types of races but that was very early in his career. Love has progressed heavily in recent months and I believe this type of track suits his driving style. As a result, I’m keeping my eye on both Sieg and Love as potential H2H and/or prop formats.
2024 Kansas Lottery 300 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Sheldon Creed +1000 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +1800 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Brandon Jones -115 over AJ Allmendinger (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -115 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Two Team Parlay
Justin Allgaier +350 wins Kansas Lottery 300
Kyle Larson +320 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Risking .75 unit to win:
+1415
