2024 Iowa Corn 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 16th, 2024. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Iowa Raceway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Cup Series will make history on Sunday with the first race, in series history, at Iowa Raceway for the running of the Iowa Corn 350. Residing in Newton, Iowa, Iowa Raceway is a ⅞ mile oval that can be very challenging and yet entertaining. While the Cup Series will make their first official start on Sunday, Iowa has been home to several races in the lower touring series in recent years and has consistently provided exciting racing. For Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350, we should expect nothing less especially with tire issues expected to be a part of the storyline.

If you happened to witness the Xfinity Series race on Saturday, tire wear was a major storyline with numerous tire failures contributing to 12 DNFs. Those same tire issues were also evident in Friday’s Cup Series practice with multiple drivers running into troubles in as little as 20-25 laps. As a result, Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350 should be approached with extreme caution in-case this turns into a battle of attrition like we saw back in Bristol when tires would barely last 30 laps. While there is some optimism that tire wear could be better tomorrow, it is one of the many unknowns going into Sunday and perhaps one of the main reasons bettors should chase betting value.

The good news is that Iowa Raceway is a unique and difficult track that should yield to the better talents. Despite the fact that lap times are extremely close throughout the field, the drivers with better car control should be among the guys that are able to excel through consistency while also managing tire wear. These types of racing conditions are usually good for handicappers and bettors because we can target the better driving talents as opposed to better equipment, starting positions, and other less important factors. For that reason, we may be semi-aggressive in the realm of H2H match-ups and also take a few chances on dark horses that could rise to the top if things get wild on Sunday!

Iowa Raceway

While I mentioned the size (⅞ mile) and shape (oval) of Iowa Raceway above, I would like to provide some other important facts to help our handicapping narrative. For those unaware, this track was designed back in 2004 by legendary NASCAR driver Rusty Wallace who remains one of the only drivers in recent memory to design a major track that is currently on NASCAR’s schedule. Wallace mirrored the design of Iowa Raceway towards one of his favorite tracks in resemblance to Richmond Raceway with some nuances that included progressive banking aimed to intensify more side by side racing.

As a result, Richmond is a good comparable track for handicapping reasons for those looking for the best track in comparison. However, Iowa still has a lot of differences from Richmond especially since the corners were repaved with a racing groove that transitioned towards the middle of the corners. Therefore, we must keep an open mind from a betting standpoint as this track is relatively new for the majority of Cup Series drivers with the exception of guys like Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and a few others who have competed at Iowa through Xfinity Series competition.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

While I don’t always give practice results the most credit, perhaps we should give practice observations more reliability this week as an indicator towards drivers that have figured out or adapted quicker to this brand new venue. On Friday, Noah Gragson continued his impressive uptrend by leading all drivers with the fastest lap in practice with a speed of 137.988mph. While Gragson’s overall speed and fast lap time were trending above expectations, Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson appeared to show the best speed overall. Among the drivers that ran at least 20 laps without issues, Reddick, Larson, and Alex Bowman appeared to be the best cars in practice. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman appeared to be the drivers that were in close striking distance of the outright best speed throughout all major categories.

For what it’s worth, Daniel Suarez, Bubba Wallace, and Todd Gilliland were among the bottom-tier names that appeared to have solid speed in Friday’s practice. Gilliland actually recorded his 2nd top 10 of the season last week at Sonoma which is potentially a prop bet we should continue to monitor. On the other side of the coin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr, and Chris Buescher were among the quality names that did not impress on Friday. While Bell’s speed was not bad, I think a lot of people expected him to dominate this weekend. While I’m sure Bell will be strong on Sunday, I don’t think there is any way he brings value to his current betting odds.

In qualifying on Saturday, Kyle Larson edged Ryan Blaney for the pole following a fast lap of 136.458mph. The fast lap was Larson’s 4th pole of the season however Larson has not won from the pole since the 2021 season at Phoenix, the year he won the championship. While Larson and Blaney may not have been a surprise at the top of the leaderboard, Josh Berry (3rd) and Chase Briscoe (6th) were among the names that had impressive qualifying efforts. The two Stewart-Haas Racing teammates had two of their best qualifying efforts of the season, ironically just more than a week after the company announced their exit from the sport. Surprisingly, all of the SHR cars have shown speed this weekend with perhaps the exception of Ryan Preece.

Betting Targets

For betting targets for the outright win, I still believe bettors should chase value this week due to the variety of unknowns going into this race. While Larson, Bell, Hamlin, and Blaney are all worthy of being betting favorites, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano are just as likely to hit a winner but are getting twice the betting value. Personally, I like the dark horse value from guys like Alex Bowman and Chase Briscoe who are both listed at 30-1 odds or better. Both Bowman and Briscoe have shown speed this weekend and have shown strong results at Richmond in the Next Gen Car. As a result, I like the outright value in both guys for the outright victory.

When I first attempt to find H2H value, I typically look for the driver(s) that are criminally undervalued from a betting odds (for the win) standpoint. For Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350, Chase Briscoe and Todd Gilliland appear to be the guys that are criminally undervalued. Both drivers also provide prop bet potential meaning we could look to target those drivers in H2H and/or prop bet formats. Therefore, it will be a judgment call for the best way to target Briscoe and Gilliland on Sunday. Aside from the criminally undervalued narrative, I also believe Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suarez are among other names that appear to be destined to beat their suggested ceilings. Both drivers appear to have much higher ceilings than other drivers in similar odds ranges.

Draftkings Optimal Lineup at Iowa

2024 Iowa Corn 350 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +700 (1 unit)
William Byron +1400 (.75 units)
Joey Logano +1400 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1600 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -125 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
William Byron -110 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +1000 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +350 wins Group I (Bowman, Gragson, Wallace)(.5 unit)