2024 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 29th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: USA

Following last week’s Round of 16 elimination race at Bristol, the Cup Series playoffs will continue on Sunday for the start of the Round of 12 which will take place at Kansas Speedway for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400. Last week, Kyle Larson delivered one of the most dominating performances in Bristol history by leading 462 of 500 to capture a victory in the Bristol night race. With the victory, Larson has now amassed a 39 point cushion to the cutoff line as we begin the Round of 12 and should be in excellent position barring disaster as we move forward. More importantly, Larson won the spring race at Kansas earlier this year and has posted incredible numbers throughout his career. Needless to say, Larson should be poised for an opportunity to go back to back!

For our fans and readers, Kansas Speedway is an intermediate 1.5 mile speedway however this track has a lot of character. The corners feature 17-20 degree progressive banking that provides different racing grooves that will be utilized throughout Sunday’s 400 mile race. The racing groove seems to favor the bottom early, in green flag runs, when tires have optimal grip and slowly progress to the high-side as tires begin to wear. By the end of runs, most drivers will be running near the wall in order to find grip. However, there is enough grip to provide drivers options to run any groove when attempting to make passes and that is exactly what makes Kansas such a fan track from a spectator perspective.

For Cup Series cars, drivers are on-throttle damn near the full lap; especially with newer tires. Therefore, raw speed will be important from a team/equipment standpoint but it will also be important that the driver can keep their foot in the throttle and trust their ability to wheel the car through these fast turns. In many ways, Kansas is an underrated drivers track because it does take a ton of talent and balls to get around this track without bailing out of the throttle. Needless to say, these racing conditions should yield to some of the top talents this week but it also could provide some strategy plays as track position will be very important towards the front of the field. Either way, I think everyone should expect a good race because the Next Gen Car has been very strong at the 1.5 mile speedways and Kansas rarely fails to deliver!

Kansas – Betting Notes

• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Kansas.
• Joey Logano (3), Kyle Larson (2), Martin Truex Jr (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Kyle Busch (2), Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace are all former winners at Kansas.
• Denny Hamlin has a lucrative 4.8 average finishing position over his last 10 starts at Kansas.
• Kyle Larson has two wins and finished 4th or better 5 of his last 6 starts at Kansas.
• Alex Bowman has a 9.0 average finishing position over his last 9 starts at Kansas.
• Christopher Bell has produced a 100+ average driver rating in 4 of the last 5 races at Kansas.
• Martin Truex Jr has finished 9th or better in 9 of the last 10 races at Kansas.
• Ryan Blaney’s best finish is 9th in the last 7 races at Kansas.
• Despite a runner-up finish this spring, Chris Buescher’s has a poor 18.5 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Kansas.
• Michael McDowell has just one Top 10 finish in 26 career starts at Kansas.
• Toyota drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Kansas.
• The eventual race winner has started in the Top 10 in each of the last 9 races at Kansas.

Dynamic Averages – Intermediate Tracks

I do not want to spend a lot of time breaking down our dynamic averages for the intermediate tracks. However, I do believe that is an important handicapping metric that bettors should analyze this week. Simply put, this metric gives us the best idea of how drivers/teams have performed through the 5 most recent races at 1.5 mile speedways (excluding Atlanta). As you will notice, Kyle Larson has produced the highest in-season rating (125.5) that we have seen this season which is absolutely phenomenal. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Christopher Bell, and Martin Truex have all produced triple digit ratings or right there at it. The interesting thing about our dynamic averages is that a lot of the races in this sample were earlier this year when the Hendrick Motorsports cars appeared to have the most speed. The Toyotas have definitely found more speed at the 1.5 mile speedways and that will be an intriguing component to handicapping Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Cup Series teams participated in back to back practice and qualifying sessions on Saturday in preparation for the Hollywood Casino 400. At the end of both sessions, Christopher Bell emerged with his 3rd straight pole at Kansas Speedway with a fast lap of 179.336mph. Ty Gibbs helped secure a Joe Gibbs Racing front row by qualifying 2nd, Kyle Busch was 3rd, Tyler Reddick 4th, and Joey Logano was among the top 5 qualifiers. The biggest surprises from qualifying included Martin Truex Jr (19th), Brad Keselowski (26th), and Chase Elliott (38th). At least for Elliott, the problem was engine trouble so hopefully the #9 team can move forward. However, Keselowski and Truex both seemed to be lacking the speed we expected. Both drivers exited the playoffs last week and appear to be trending in the wrong direction yet again.

In practice, static speeds may be somewhat confusing because the opening group (A) was considerably faster due to better track conditions. William Byron and Alex Bowman appeared to be very solid from the opening group. I was personally impressed with Bowman’s long-run speed so he may be creeping towards being a potential betting target. In Group B, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell appeared to emerge as the best drivers in that specific group. Larson and Bell have been awesome at Kansas throughout their careers but perhaps Elliott deserves some consideration fresh off the runner-up finish at Bristol. Another note I would call out is the fact that Ryan Blaney appeared to have excellent long-run speed despite questionable short-run speed. Blaney appeared to have a similar narrative last week at Bristol but raced to a 6th place result. While Blaney does not appear to show “winning” speed this week, I would definitely avoid fading the #12 as well!

Betting Targets

Obviously based on all handicapping angles, Kyle Larson is the deserving outright betting favorite over Denny Hamlin this week. However, I’m not sure the gap from the outright favorites to the intermediate betting favorites is truly a gap. Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and Chase Elliott all deserve betting attention simply based on their betting value. Bell is getting 8-1 odds as a driver that could be argued as an outright favorite and has an excellent track record at Kansas. I don’t necessarily like the odds on Blaney but he is trending in a positive direction based on race speed. Meanwhile, both Bowman and Elliott have excellent betting odds value and have shown really good speed this weekend, while checking off a lot of the handicapping boxes as well.

Personally, I like Bowman and Elliott as H2H options simply because I believe that have a high probability to outrun those with similar betting odds. However, I would also label names like Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, and Justin Haley as names that appear to be poised to shatter their current odds projections. Suarez (80-1) and Haley (200-1) are receiving enormous odds. However, Suarez has shown speed throughout the weekend and qualified in the 10th position. Meanwhile, Haley will be behind the wheel of the #7 for Spire Motorsports this week greatly improving his overall ceiling. As a result, I believe both drivers are worthy of H2H and prop bet consideration!

2024 Hollywood Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +800 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -110 over Ty Gibbs (3 units)
Martin Truex Jr -125 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Justin Haley +100 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Justin Haley +1200 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)