2024 GoodYear 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 12th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FOX

Throwback weekend will culminate with the running of the GoodYear 400 on Sunday as NASCAR’s best tangle with The Lady in Black. Riding on the coattails of one of the greatest finishes in NASCAR history, the Cup Series will have the opportunity to ride the momentum into one of the best racing venues in the sport. Darlington Raceway has fielded the highest forms of racing since 1950 and the speedway’s rugged history matches its present day persona. Without question, Darlington provides the ultimate driving test and there is nothing sweeter than a victory at the track known as Too Tough To Tame.

For those unaware or just needing a reminder, Darlington Raceway is a 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval that has two very distinct ends of the speedway. The track has a very narrow racing surface that is extremely abrasive causing significant tire wear with every passing lap. The abrasive surface yields minimal grip which means drivers will be fighting throughout the entire race to keep the cars under control while still attempting to maintain fast lap times. The racing groove seems to be faster right against the wall which often leads to drivers getting the infamous Darlington “stripe.” Needless to say, this is hair-raising racing which puts the drivers on edge and typically produces an entertaining spectacle for onlookers.

From a handicapping perspective, I have always loved Darlington because it is one of those tracks where the driver is more valuable than the car/equipment the driver is piloting. Though that narrative has diminished some with the Next Gen Car, the rule of thumb still applies. The main thing I always iterate at tracks with the difficulty level relative to Darlington is that we should always tailor our betting selections to the top drivers. Despite how well we believe a driver may perform, we should never take the less talented or skillful driver in the form of H2H match-ups and we should always try to identify those drivers that are more skillful than their equipment may suggest. This is the place those guys should shine and emerge towards the front of the field!

Darlington – Betting Notes

• Denny Hamlin (4) leads all active drivers with the most wins at Darlington.
• Martin Truex Jr (2), Erik Jones (2), Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and William Byron are all former winners at Darlington.
• Joey Logano, Erik Jones, William Byron, and Kyle Larson are the 4 winners at Darlington since the debut of the Next Gen Car.
• Tyler Reddick has two runner-up finishes and a 3rd place result in the last 4 races with the Next Gen Car.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 7th or better in 4 of his last 5 starts at Darlington.
• Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin have led 43% of all laps in the last 6 races at Darlington.
• Bubba Wallace has finished 9th, 5th, and 7th in his last 3 starts at Darlington.
• Martin Truex Jr’s best finish at Darlington in the Next Gen Car is 18th.
• Ryan Blaney has 0 top 5 finishes in 14 career starts at Darlington.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in each of the last 5 races at Darlington.
• Chevrolet drivers have won the last 3 races at Darlington.

Darlington Loop Data

As you may have noticed in the betting notes above, I tried my best to call out potential emerging trends with the Next Gen Car. These cars are so equal with today’s racing package and requires a different way of driving as opposed to the old car; I thought it would be in our best handicapping interest to focus on the performance at Darlington in the current car. For that reason, I have compiled loop data for the last 4 races at Darlington which includes all events in the Next Gen Car. As you will see, William Byron leads all drivers with the best average rating at 111.1. Behind Byron, there are several guys within a tight window which includes Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch. It’s somewhat interesting that Logano and Busch are so high on that list considering both drivers have struggled throughout the season.

As we look further down these metrics, I would also mention notable strong trends from the likes of Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace who are both right in the middle of the big names in the sport. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, and Ty Gibbs are the names that standout with underwhelming performance results. Elliott has actually produced solid finishes but his average running position has been weak which is the reason for his average rating. Buescher’s poor results are from the 2022 season but he bounced back with finishes of 10th and 3rd last year. I believe that trend is likely due to the continued improvement of RFK Racing which appears to be poised for a really strong weekend based on Saturday’s on-track observations.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
William Byron	111.1	9.8	4.0	6.5	6.0	-5	84	81	1322
Tyler Reddick	102.4	6.5	6.5	7.3	8.0	32	60	100	1322
Joey Logano	99.5	5.8	12.3	8.8	9.8	19	59	171	1322
Denny Hamlin	99.4	10.8	5.5	15.0	9.3	-12	86	234	1320
Kyle Busch	98.3	8.3	5.0	20.3	10.0	34	64	174	1174
Ross Chastain	94.4	13.0	14.3	21.0	13.0	-3	118	120	1214
Christopher Bell	93.5	5.5	11.3	12.0	9.5	-20	46	43	1321
Martin Truex Jr	92.7	13.3	8.0	26.0	10.3	-3	131	221	1246
Kyle Larson	91.1	8.5	18.0	17.3	14.8	9	79	114	1141
Ryan Blaney	87.7	7.8	11.5	12.0	11.3	46	21	4	1322
Bubba Wallace	87.1	11.5	15.0	12.0	11.3	16	28	7	1289
Erik Jones	85.7	18.5	9.3	15.3	12.0	21	20	24	1289
Brad Keselowski	78.7	15.8	16.0	12.8	15.8	16	20	11	1195
Chase Elliott	76.3	22.8	16.5	13.0	16.5	58	20	0	1068
Alex Bowman	65.9	18.3	22.0	24.0	18.7	-11	17	0	944
Chris Buescher	65.4	20.0	24.0	13.8	19.8	-20	8	0	1320
Daniel Suarez	64.3	20.8	16.3	24.0	18.8	-3	20	0	1179
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	64.2	18.5	20.5	18.0	21.5	2	13	0	1119
Ty Gibbs	63.6	17.0	19.3	17.3	19.0	-21	5	0	1029
Austin Cindric	61.8	16.0	18.8	21.0	19.5	-24	15	0	1316
Michael McDowell	60.8	13.5	20.5	19.5	20.3	21	20	0	1189
Justin Haley	58.8	23.5	24.8	13.5	23.3	13	11	0	1320
Harrison Burton	57.2	24.8	22.5	19.0	21.5	-23	4	0	1272
Austin Dillon	56.4	18.3	19.5	20.3	21.5	-25	4	0	1223
Chase Briscoe	51.3	18.8	23.8	19.8	22.5	-60	1	0	1318
Todd Gilliland	51.0	28.0	29.5	20.0	25.0	-30	7	0	1317
Ryan Preece	48.5	33.0	29.0	21.5	27.0	9	7	0	659
Corey LaJoie	43.8	30.0	28.5	26.3	26.5	-10	8	7	1177
Daniel Hemric	38.4	24.0	23.0	27.0	28.5	-6	1	0	553

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Saturday, Tyler Reddick won the first battle of the weekend by winning the pole with a lap of 170.124mph. Reddick’s pole award was the first of his career at Darlington and just the 7th of his career. Reddick will lead the RFK Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher to the green flag with Ty Gibs and William Byron rounding out the top 5 starting positions. Speaking of the RFK Racing duo, I thought Brad Keselowski has some of the most impressive lap times in practice. Though Keselowski was down the charts for single lap speed and also down on some of the consecutive averages, Keselowski went out later in practice yet still managed to produce times that showed the least amount of fall-off in the entire field. If that trend remains true going into Sunday, Keselowski may have a chance to end Ford’s winless streak.

In terms of practice observations, Austin Cindric, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson were the 3 names that led the 10 lap consecutive average category. Todd Gilliland, Cindric, and Keselowski were the names that led the 20 lap consecutive average category. It’s worth noting that the Hendrick Motorsports cars, including Larson, did not run more than 15 consecutive laps. Larson definitely appeared to have one of the fastest cars but will not be showing up on the higher consecutive lap categories. In a lot of ways, I thought the Ford teams emerged from Saturday’s sessions as the winners. All Ford drivers were on top of the 20, 25, and 30 lap consecutive categories and appear to have found some speed. However, it will be interesting to see if that speed translates to race speed on Sunday.

Betting Targets

Based on the way the season has unfolded, I thought Denny Hamlin would be at the top of my list this week because he has been the best driver on a weekly basis along with Larson and Byron. More importantly, Hamlin has been phenomenal throughout his career at Darlington. However as we inch closer to Sunday’s green flag, I’m not sure if there is enough value on the likes of Hamlin and Larson to warrant betting selections unless we find unique ways through parlays. Simply put, I believe there are enough dark horses emerging that offer bettors better value with realistic upside to push the narrative that we can chase value this weekend.

With that being said, I am really liking the signs from Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski as solid pivot options against the deserving favorites of Larson, Hamlin, and Byron. While odds makers are not allowing significantly more value for Reddick or Keselowski, both drivers have shown great trends at Darlington within this car and looked very good in Saturday’s sessions. Whether you believe in Reddick or Keselowski, both drivers can be targeted in all formats. Meanwhile, I also believe Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott are among the drivers with value and dark horse potential. Todd Gilliland and Noah Gragson are among the bottom-tier names with higher upside than current betting odds suggest and perhaps are ideal targets in prop bet formats.

2024 Draftkings GoodYear 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 GoodYear 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +650 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1800 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Bubba Wallace +330 wins Group 4 (Logano, Jones, Gragson)(1 unit)
Josh Berry +350 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski-190 over Kyle Busch
Bubba Wallace +115 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 2 units to win: +450