2024 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 15th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Watkins Glen International
TV: USA

The 2nd race in the opening round of the Cup Series playoffs will take place on Sunday at Watkins Glen International with the running of the Go Bowling at the Glen! Last week, Joey Logano punched his ticket to the round of 12 with a victory at Atlanta. Logano is the only driver that has locked themselves into the next round. Meanwhile there were many big names including Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex who had troubles at Atlanta and now desperately need a strong performance on Sunday to avoid the threat of a first round exit. As we prepare for more playoff racing, we will shift focus towards identifying the best betting opportunities for Sunday’s return to Watkins Glen!

For those keeping track, Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen will be the 4th road course style race this season. The prior races at Circuit of the Americas (William Byron), Sonoma (Kyle Larson), and Chicago Street Course (Alex Bowman) were all won by Hendrick Motorsports drivers. What makes that statistic impressive is the combined fact that Hendrick Motorsports drivers have also won the last 5 straight races at Watkins Glen. Chase Elliott won back to back races at the Glen from 2018-2019. Kyle Larson won the next two races at the Glen from 2021-2022 and William Byron broke through to earn his first career road course victory in last year’s Go Bowling at the Glen. Needless to say, the trends definitely lean heavily in favor of the Hendrick Motorsports brigade!

While many eyes will be on the playoff contenders, Sunday’s entry list also includes some road course powerhouses in the likes of Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger who are arguably two of the most skilled road course talents in the sport. Additionally, it is also worth noting that former Cup Series veteran Juan Pablo Montoya will make his first start since 2014 in hopes to take advantage of the success that others open wheel and road course talents have found in the Next Gen Car. Therefore, Sunday’s racing field has several prestigious part-time drivers that will be competing this weekend and may also deserve betting consideration as we approach the green flag for the Go Bowling at the Glen!

Watkins Glen – Handicapping Notes

• Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson are all tied for the most wins (2) among active drivers at Watkins Glen.
• AJ Allmendinger, Martin Truex Jr, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano are also former winners at Watkins Glen.
• Christopher Bell has the best average finishing position (6.0) among active diverse through 3 career starts at Watkins Glen.
• AJ Allmendinger has a 8.8 average finishing position through 12 career starts at Watkins Glen, the best among all drivers with at least 5 starts.
• Kyle Busch has finished inside the top 10 in 13 of 18 career starts at Watkins Glen.
• Tyler Reddick has finished inside the top 10 in all 3 career starts at Watkins Glen.
• AJ Allmendinger (108.5), Christopher Bell (100.5), and AJ Allmendinger (98.5) have the best average finishing positions among drivers over the last two races at Watkins Glen in the Next Gen Car.
• Alex Bowman (7 starts) and Ross Chastain (5 starts) have never finished in the top 10 at Watkins Glen. Bowman’s best finish of 14th is the best among both drivers.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 5 straight races at Watkins Glen.
• The eventual race winner has started from the top 6 positions in 12 of the last 13 races at Watkins Glen.

Dynamic Averages – Road Courses

If we look at our dynamic averages (road courses) which displays performance metrics from the last 5 road course races with the Next Gen Car, we can see that a group of 6 drivers have clearly separated themselves from the field which consists of names like AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson. Personally, I am slightly surprised to see Allmendinger’s name leading this list because it does not seem like he has been a big factor in recent road course races. In reality, Allmendinger has actually performed really well and scored a victory in last year’s race at the ROVAL. Considering how strong Allmendinger has been throughout his career at Watkins Glen, these metrics have to be given serious consideration.

The rest of the names within the upper echelon of our loop data metrics should be no surprise as they all surround very talented road course drivers. Perhaps Christopher Bell is the most underrated road course talent in that group but Bell has been really solid through his 3 career starts at the Glen. As we look through the loop data statistics, I would also just call out the very disappointing performance trends from the likes of Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Austin Cindric. Ross Chastain who also won the pole for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen has also produced dreadful metrics at Watkins Glen. Therefore, these are things that we must keep in mind despite what drivers may have shown or not shown in the speed department during Saturday’s on-track activities.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

Earlier today, the Cup Series had the opportunity to participate in practice and qualifying sessions. At the end of both sessions, Ross Chastain emerged as the fastest man in town by capturing the pole with a fast lap of 122.279mph. Chastain was a full .13 faster than the rest of the field and held the top spot over the likes of Martin Truex Jr, Shave Van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, and Austin Cindric who rounded out the top 5 starting positions. In reality, qualifying results were somewhat surprising as we had several expected names towards the front of the field combined with just as many unexpected names which included the likes of Daniel Suarez, Noah Gragson, and Michael McDowell who all qualified in the top 10 starting positions.

Meanwhile there were also several names like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney who all qualified poorly outside the top 20 and will be faced with uphill challenges on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, I thought Tyler Reddick (starting 16th), Michael McDowell (starting 10th), and Ross Chastain (starting 1st) were among the drivers that showed the best speed. Reddick and McDowell have both been really strong at the road courses with the Next Gen Car. Meanwhile, Chastain has not shown consistency in recent road course events but displayed excellent pace on Saturday in terms of lap times. I would also list Kyle Larson and SVG as drivers that showed excellent pace in practices which should be least surprising considering the talent from both drivers.

Betting Targets

From a betting standpoint, Tyler Reddick, AJ Allmendinger, and Christopher Bell appear to be the most valuable options based on our various handicapping angles. Reddick and Allmendinger have been among the best road course talents in the Next Gen Car and have also produced quality results at Watkins Glen. Meanwhile, Bell is in a similar category but is receiving enormous odds after an underperforming round of sessions on Saturday. Either way you look at it, Bell has considerable upside value going into Sunday’s main event where he has been strong throughout every start at Watkins Glen in his career.

Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin, Noah Gragson, and Corey LaJoie are the drivers that I have targeted that appear to be poised to shatter expectations. Hamlin posted lap times that echoed the leader’s speed from practice and has shown a strong linear progression throughout his career at Watkins Glen. Meanwhile, Gragson and LaJoie are some bottom-dweller style names who appear to have much faster pace than many would expect. As a result, I believe both Gragson and LaJoie offer upside in prop bet formats and may also produce value in H2H format as well. Lastly, while I do not currently like this driver’s betting odds, I would also put Michael McDowell into the “sharp” category as a driver that should have a quality performance. I was really impressed with McDowell’s pace in practice and I believe he has legitimate long-run speed that will impress on Sunday!

*One key thing to consider this week is the drivers that will need to race for stage points to improve their playoff status. Drivers like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and others will have to take advantage of stage points after disappointing starts to the playoffs at Atlanta. As a result, we should use that information to our handicapping advantage compared to drivers (part-time/non-playoff) that will likely pursue optimal finishing strategies.

2024 Go Bowling at the Glen Optimal Lineup

2024 Go Bowling at the Glen Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ross Chastain +800 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +800 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Michael McDowell -110 over Austin Cindric (3 units)
Christopher Bell -115 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Shane Van Gisbergen -120 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1100 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +1400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)