2024 FR8 208 Race Picks
Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday February 24th, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
Fresh off an exciting opening week to the season at Daytona, NASCAR’s touring series will travel to Atlanta Motor Speedway for similar superspeedway style racing this weekend. On Saturday, NASCAR will have a double-header between the Craftsman Truck Series and the Xfinity Series. The opening act in Saturday’s double-header will feature the running of the FR8 208 in the Craftsman Truck Series as we look to provide our first betting picks of the season for NASCAR’s lower touring series. While we are excited to get back to a full weekend of betting picks, this weekend’s races at Atlanta will be very similar to a superspeedway style racing product which can be very volatile from a handicapping perspective.
While Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile speedway and a full mile smaller than Daytona, the racing product has been fairly similar since the track was repaved/reconfigured prior to the start of 2022. Since then, Atlanta has produced superspeedway style racing that is heavily impacted by drafting similar to the likes of Daytona and Talladega. This week’s races across all 3 major touring series should not be any different. Therefore, our racing picks and handicapping strategy will be tailored towards strategy and value, as opposed to finding the sharpest betting options which will be the case at traditional ovals starting next week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
For anyone wondering, the 2024 schedule is the first time slating superspeedway style events in back to back weeks. In last week’s Truck Series opener at Daytona, Nick Sanchez earned the first win of his young career. Sanchez was actually involved in a wreck in the opening laps but did not sustain any damage. Sanchez rebounded to lead a race-high 26 laps and clearly appeared to be the class of the field. However, I would be foolish to ignore the total chaos that last week’s opening race produced which was a record total of cautions (12). For Saturday’s FR8 208, Kyle Busch will make his return to the Craftsman Truck Series in the #7 for Spire Motorsports marking the first time since 2009 that Rowdy will pilot a truck that he has not owned due to Kyle Busch Motorsports leaving the series last year. Ironically, Spire Motorsports was the organization that purchased KBM last year. So in many ways, Busch will not be too far removed from KBM equipment when he seeks a 65th career series victory this Saturday.
Handicapping Strategy
Similar to last week’s Daytona 500 preview, our race picks will be centered around betting value again this week. In these types of superspeedway races, it is mandatory that we maintain a strong ROI based on our selections to maintain an effective short-term and long-term strategy. Based on last week’s races at Daytona, I think it was pretty obvious that the Truck Series is sort of wide-open this season which strengthens the possibility for underdog winners. While I would not consider Nick Sanchez’s victory last week a true upset, I would point out the fact that 5 of the top 6 finishers have never won in the Craftsman Truck Series. As a result, we have to consider a wide range of betting options going into Saturday’s FR8 208 and bettors should definitely have some long shots on their betting cards.
Qualifying Results
The only on-track activities leading up to Saturday’s FR8 208 took place Friday afternoon during qualifying. For transparency, there were not any practice sessions held this weekend at Atlanta across any series. In qualifying, Daniel Dye won the first pole of his career with a fast lap of 174.236mph. Dye’s fast lap was more than a full tenth better than teammate Tyler Ankrum who qualified in the 2nd position. However, Ankrum was among the best trucks in last week’s race at Daytona which perhaps strengthens the argument for the entire team from McAnally-Hilgemann Racing (MHR) who expanded to a 3-car (truck) full-time team this season after a strong 2023 campaign with Christian Eckes.
While Ty Majeski qualified in the 3rd position, MHR trucks produced 4 of the top 5 positions in qualifying when you consider that Jack Wood and Christian Eckes qualified 4th and 5th. While Wood does not compete full-time, he will pilot another MHR powered Chevrolet with the #91 truck on Saturday. It is also worth noting that both Ankrum and Eckes produced the two best average driver ratings last week at Daytona, behind race-winner Nick Sanchez, due to how often they stayed at the front of the field. Therefore, the early storyline this week has surrounded the early strength shown from the MHR Trucks and that will be a storyline that bettors must consider going into Saturday’s FR8 208.
Behind the MHR Trucks, there were not many organizational storylines. Grant Enfinger, Kyle Busch, Matt Crafton, Chase Purdy, and Conner Jones rounded out the 6-10 qualifying positions. Majeski, Crafton, and Jones were the only non-Chevrolet drivers in the top 10 from Thorsport Racing. Busch (#7) and Purdy (#77) appeared to also have solid speed in the Spire Motorsports trucks. With all things considered, I think we can all agree that qualifying results yield minimal importance for superspeedway style racing so perhaps qualifying results are of least importance. However, I do believe track position will be important more-so this week due to the smaller track size. Therefore, look for those guys starting out-front to have some advantage in the track position department at least for the early portion of Saturday’s race.
Betting Targets
Due to the fact I believe track position will be more important this week because passing will be more difficult despite the drafting narrative, I believe bettors can find some sharp value with the fastest trucks this week. Simply put, I think those guys with the faster trucks will be more difficult to get around this week on the smaller 1.5 mile surface. Granted, that does not rule out the possibility for underdog and long shot winners as stated earlier. I just think it will be harder to get around the top trucks this week especially if we have less cautions/carnage in Saturday’s race.
With that narrative considered, I’m sure drivers like Kyle Busch, Ty Majeski, and Corey Heim deserve the utmost respect as outright betting favorites. Those drivers are in very fast equipment and are among the top talents in Saturday’s event with Busch having a huge edge in terms of talent/experience. Behind those drivers, Nick Sanchez, Christian Eckes (defending winner), and Ben Rhodes are among the drivers that have shown the best superspeedway performance/results in the truck series in recent events.
Eckes is the defending winner of the FR8 208 and does not have the greatest betting value based on current odds. Perhaps Rhodes and Sanchez are potential selections with decent value following somewhat poor qualifying efforts. However if we are chasing the best betting value, I am more attracted to drivers like Tyler Ankrum, Daniel Dye, Colby Howard, and Bayley Currey as drivers that warrant betting attention. I mentioned that speed from the MHR trucks above which includes Ankrum and Dye following strong runs at Daytona. Meanwhile, Howard will get a strong opportunity in the #1 truck this week and is among the most underrated talents, along with Currey, in Saturday’s field. Obviously our selections are not limited to these drivers, but these are among my favorite options.
2024 FR8 208 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Ty Majeski +1400 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1400 (.5 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +1600 (.5 unit)
Matt Crafton +2800 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +3500 (.5 unit)
Colby Howard +4000 (.25 unit)
Conner Jones +8000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Colby Howard +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Conner Jones +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
