2024 Food City 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 20th, 2024. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: USA

The final race in the regular season for NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take place later this evening at Bristol Motor Speedway in the running of the Food City 300. As things currently stand, the playoff field is essentially set as long as Sammy Smith avoids disaster. Smith currently leads Ryan Sieg by 43 points for the final playoff position. Therefore, Smith simply needs to avoid a DNF style performance or a surprise first-time winner this evening to secure his playoff hopes. While the playoff picture will be one of the main storylines, NASCAR fans also have another major storyline as Dale Earnhardt Jr will be competing for the first time since last year’s Food City 300.

There is not any name in the sport that is bigger than Dale Earnhardt Jr which is the reason these part-time Xfinity Series starts are so exciting. However, let’s not forget that Earnhardt led 47 laps in green flag conditions during last year’s Food City 300 and honestly looked poised to contend for a victory until suffering mechanical failure which ended his Cinderella run. Needless to say, Earnhardt is far from just a spectacle for tonight’s event and has continuously performed well in these part-time opportunities. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if Earnhardt can put together another stellar performance and march forward when the green flag waves later this event at Bristol!

One thing that Earnhardt has on his side is the fact that J.R. Motorsports cars have won each of the last two Xfinity Series races at Bristol Motor Speedway between Noah Gragson (2022) and Justin Allgaier (2023). Allgaier entered the weekend as the overall betting favorite due to his most recent Bristol win and overall strong resume at Bristol. However, Chandler Smith surprised everyone by laying down a blistering 15.810 second lap during qualifying to win the pole by a relatively wide margin. Smith’s fast lap edged out Cole Custer for the pole. Meanwhile, Anthony Alfredo, Justin Allgaier, and AJ Allmendinger rounded out the top 5 starting positions. With that being said, tonight’s race at Bristol will be run in different track conditions and there is sure to be some comers and goers once the green flag waves!

Handicapping Strategy

I made a point to watch practices prior to tonight’s preview and race picks. I simply feel like practice has become more important in recent weeks because the upper echelon of each series are so close in proximity from a competition perspective. Therefore, if we can identify drivers that either appear to be trending above or below their expectations; perhaps it should help our handicapping predictions even more. When handicapping Bristol, we typically pay close attention to driver history because this track favors experience and a unique skill set to continuously lay day fast laps in race conditions. With that being said, Bristol has still produced 8 first-time career winners, at Bristol, in the last 9 races. Therefore, we must keep an open mind that another first-time Bristol winner is possible and potentially likely later this afternoon. Aside from that fact, we will focus heavily on identifying the best H2H match-up opportunities as they should produce the best sharp value going into tonight’s race!

Practice Observations

While qualifying results appeared to be all over the board, I would highlight practice observations which may give us the best insight towards how drivers may perform later this evening, especially on the long-run. In today’s practice, I thought Chandler Smith easily had the best lap times throughout the entire session. For some reason, the broadcast did not highlight Smith’s speed and made his qualifying effort seem shocking. In reality, Smith was lights out on the speed charts but Cole Custer and Justin Allgaier were not far off either. I look at those 3 guys as the drivers to beat going into tonight’s race in straight-up conditions. Meanwhile, I would also draw attention to the likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr, Sheldon Creed, and Ryan Truex as candidates who displayed excellent long run speed that should march forward under green flag conditions.

I think it is also important to call out the names of those drivers/teams that appeared to be trending in the wrong direction going into tonight’s race. Among the names that headline that list of drivers include the likes of Sam Mayer, Riley Herbst, and Shane Van Gisbergen. SVG just appeared to really struggle with the type of racing that Bristol produces and this will probably be one of his more difficult challenges of the season from an experience and skill set perspective. Meanwhile, Mayer and Herbst are both experienced Xfinity Series drivers that have flashed some success at Bristol in the past. However, both drivers had pretty disappointing lap times throughout practice, especially Mayer who just appeared to be “off.”

Betting Targets

We are not going to get much betting value from the top 3 names that surround the likes of Smith, Custer, and Allgaier. I lean towards Allgaier simply for the amount of times he has contended for wins at Bristol and he appears to produce the best long-run speed at these tracks. However, Smith and Custer are within a razor thin margin of having the same speed that should contend for a victory. Without much value from any of those options, bettors best opportunities may be to parlay those drivers or simply target them in H2H match-ups where value is appropriate.

With that being said, keep in mind that nothing is guaranteed at Bristol especially if strategy and/or cautions mix-up the field. There are a number of drivers that have shown really solid speed that I would not rule out if we get a lot of green flag racing later this evening. My personal favorites are Allmendinger, Creed, and perhaps Earnhardt Jr. I know Earnhardt is going to be a popular option tonight just simply for the fact he is in the field. However, I think he will have a tough hill to climb for everything to work out. Allmendinger and Creed appear to be better realistic options as drivers that could strike gold with must better betting value. In fact, I like Allmendinger and Creed in all betting formats. Another option for prop bet and H2H match-ups includes Ryan Truex. Truex had a subpar qualifying effort but showed really strong speed on the long-run. Therefore, Truex can be targeted if we can find the right type of match-ups.

2024 Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2024 Food City 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Chandler Smith +400 (1.25 units)
Cole Custer +550 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +1200 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer -125 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Jesse Love -110 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Anthony Alfredo +900 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)