2024 Focused Health 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 7th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: USA

For the 2nd time this year, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go superspeedway racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend with the running of the Focus Health 250. Unlike the Cup Series who will begin their playoffs on Sunday at Atlanta, the Xfinity Series still has 3 races remaining before the end of the regular season. For many of the Xfinity Series drivers that are outside of the playoff cutoff line, Atlanta provides one of the best remaining opportunities to win a race purely based on the style of racing that is produced at this reconfigured layout. As a result, Saturday’s return to Atlanta could be a great opportunity for many drivers needing a breakthrough victory!

Despite the allure of superspeedway racing, I believe bettors should be grounded by their expectations in this race. Atlanta Motor Speedway is 2 ½ years removed from the repave and reconfiguration that turned this once rugged 1.5 mile layout into a superspeedway style venue. The grip level is not as strong as it once was immediately after the repave which means it’s harder to stay full-throttle and get the big runs that you see at the other superspeedway venues. Perhaps more importantly, the racing surface is more narrow than the likes of Daytona and Talladega. For that reason, we see far less 3-wide racing at Atlanta. Simply put, it’s harder to make moves to get to the front and track position will be key throughout the weekend.

Back in February, Jesse Love dominated the race by leading 157 of 169 laps which is something you would never see at the traditional superspeedways. Unfortunately for Love, fuel mileage was a big part of the story back in the February event. Love and many others ran out of gas following several late restarts which provided the opportunity for teammate Austin Hill to pick up yet another superspeedway victory. Needless to say, I’m not expecting an extremely wild and crazy race on Saturday. Everyone will be trying to nail the strategy card by spending the least amount of time on pit road in hopes to win the track position battle. However, I’m not extremely confident we may not see another big game of “follow the leader” at the front of the field!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

I am going to change up my handicapping strategy slightly this week. Typically, I look at superspeedway performance stats across all venues when it comes to handicapping any type of superspeedway venue. Due to the way this race played out in February, I don’t believe this will be a prototypical superspeedway race. Instead, I believe a lot of the fast teams/drivers will be battling at the front of the field which is more typical of an intermediate style oval. In attempting to handicap the top drivers, I think we must look at the race at Atlanta in February and simply identify the drivers/teams that have produced the most raw speed with this superspeedway package which was also run at Indianapolis and Michigan in the last few weeks.

From a betting standpoint, I’m hoping the superspeedway narrative continues to provide more value to betting odds. However, odds-makers have produced top-heavy betting odds which has been their strategy throughout the year. With that being said, we still must construct our betting card in a value style approach. If we can find drivers with additional value and similar ceilings, we should side with the value in the odds in nearly every scenario. The hope here is because we know this style of racing can produce volatility that we should build the most ROI efficient roster possible, based on what betting odds allow. Lastly, while I am expecting a heavy hitter lineup at the front of the field on Saturday. Don’t completely overlook the dark horses this week that could yield value, especially those in prop bet formats!

Betting Targets

Obviously teammates Austin Hill and Jesse Love are deserving favorites this week however betting odds are downright pitiful for both drivers. If you really want Hill and/or Love, perhaps parlay strategies could come into play. However, the 2nd leg of those parlays may be just as difficult based on the racing this weekend. In my opinion, the drivers that appear critically undervalued include the likes of Cole Custer and Riley Herbst. Herbst has been extremely fast in this package with his win at Indianapolis and race-winning speed shown at Michigan. Herbst has shown the speed and the potential to get the job done yet is receiving nearly 20-1 odds? Simply put, that may be the best value on the board.

Ryan Truex, Justin Allgaier, and Chandler Smith are all drivers that deserve betting consideration. However, I just wish those options had better odds. Behind those drivers, I believe Brandon Jones and Sammy Smith are deserving of betting attention simply from a value perspective. At near 30-1 odds for both drivers, Jones and Smith are both in fast equipment and have enough experience in these races to make a run at a checkered flag given the right scenarios. Meanwhile if we go even deeper in the field, Jeb Burton, Parker Retzlaff, and Shane Van Gisbergen are all drivers that have risky upside. Again, I’m not looking for my dark horses to produce race winning upside this week but prop bets are definitely an option as I expect a couple of these drivers have top 5/top 10 upside.

2024 Focused Health 250 Optimal Lineup

***TBD***

2024 Focused Health 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Cole Custer +1100 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +1200 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +1800 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1800 (.5 unit)
Sammy Smith +2800 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Sieg -110 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
Parker Retzlaff +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Shane Van Gisbergen +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Jesse Love +550 wins Focused Health 250
Toyota +300 wins Quaker State 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +1250