2024 Focused Health 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 23rd, 2024. 5:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FS1
The 2nd leg of Saturday’s NASCAR double-header will feature a star-studded lineup in the Xfinity Series for the running of the Focused Health 250 at Circuit of the Americas. If you like road course racing, Saturday’s Xfinity Series return to COTA will be one to watch. Several of the sport’s biggest names and superb road course talents like Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, Shane Van Gisbergen, John Hunter Nemechek, and others will all be competing in Saturday’s feature event. Needless to say, we have a lot to discuss as we look for the best betting options for what promises to be an exciting afternoon of racing.
Going into the weekend, Kyle Larson was the outright betting favorite and he solidified that spot on Friday by capturing the pole with an Xfinity Series track record lap of 92.946mph. Larson will have the opportunity to lead the field to the green flag on Saturday but he will be closely followed by some of the road course “big hitters” which includes Shane Van Gisbergen, Ty Gibbs, and AJ Allmendinger who all qualified in the top 5 positions. Van Gisbergen was very strong throughout practice and qualifying on Friday.
As many are aware, SVG captured an unfathomable breakout victory in his first Cup Series start at the Chicago street course last year which catapulted his move to NASCAR as an Xfinity Series regular. SVG has been solid through the first 4 races of the season which includes a 3rd place result at Atlanta and a 6th place finish at Phoenix. With that being said, everyone knows that road course racing is SVG’s strength and Saturday’s Focused Health 250 could be another opportunity for the New Zealand native to capture a victory. With that being said, Larson and SVG appear to be the heavily favored duo going into Saturday for justifiable reasons but there are also others that deserve to be in the conversation as well!
Betting Strategy
Without question, this race is very top heavy with some of the extremely talented road course talents in the field. Larson, SVG, AJ Allmendinger, and Ty Gibbs could be favorites at any road event and the likelihood that tomorrow’s winner comes from that group is very high. As a result, we are not going to find a lot of betting value for picking a winner of the Focused Health 250 based on current betting odds. There is just not much value in the betting odds for the outright winner. Therefore, I believe our betting strategy will likely be centered around sharper picks in H2H match-ups that provide our best opportunity to produce winning margins.
Practice Observations
Honestly, I was slightly surprised that Larson won the pole in qualifying after watching lap times in practice on Friday. Obviously, Larson winning anything is not surprising but during practice SVG and AJ Allmendinger were consistently laying down the fastest lap times. I thought SVG was clearly the best car overall in practice and Allmendinger was not far behind. With that being said, Larson and Ty Gibbs were also fairly close in lap times and are definitely going to be contenders once the green flag waves. However if I had to pick a driver based solely on practice observations, SVG would get the nod of approval.
Behind the top guys, I was also impressed with guys like Sheldon Creed and Jesse Love who both appeared to be much closer to the leaders than most would have expected going into the weekend. Creed has flashed road course success in the past and is perhaps in the best equipment of his career for this week’s return to COTA. Meanwhile, Love has very minimal road course experience and was borderline top 5 in most practice categories. While Love and Creed were in the “exceeds” expectations category, I should also call out some of the popular names like John Hunter Nemechek, Sammy Smith, and Riley Herbst who were all way down the speed charts. Nemechek was probably the most surprising because he has been such a consistent frontrunner in the Xfinity Series in recent years but he was struggling to find speed throughout Friday’s sessions.
Betting Targets
As stated above, I don’t believe we are going to find a ton of value towards betting on the race winners on Saturday. However, I am leaning towards SVG and AJ Allmendinger as the betting options based on observations and current betting odds. With that being said, my main focus remains around trying to find the best H2H match-ups with higher winning percentages compared to futures (win) bets. Perhaps one driver that could be targeted in both formats includes the #81 of Chandler Smith. Smith has easily been the best Xfinity Series regular this season and is fresh off a win at Phoenix two weeks ago. More importantly, Smith has once again shown great speed this weekend but is somehow falling in the shadow of the bigger names. I think bettors should realize that Smith has been one of the most impressive drivers this season and understand he offers serious upside in all betting formats.
For H2H only options, Sheldon Creed, Sam Mayer, and Jesse Love are among the group of drivers that I am keeping on my radar. I mentioned both Creed and Love in my practice observations above. I like how both of those drivers are trending going into the weekend. My only concern is that Creed has consistently gotten into trouble (wrecks) at a high percentage at the road courses. Love is perhaps the safer H2H option with a ceiling much higher than others with similar betting odds. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer is going into the weekend somewhat underrated thanks to a slow start to the 2024 season. We should not forget that Mayer caught fire late last year with 3 victories on the road courses. As a result, I think Mayer is getting somewhat disrespected based on current betting odds and we may be able to use that to our advantage in H2H situations.
2024 Focused Health 250 Betting Picks
*FINAL*
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Chandler Smith -130 over Riley Herbst (3 units)
Shane Van Gisbergen -145 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Austin Hill -110 over Parker Kligerman (2 units)
