2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 18th, 2024. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: USA

Last week, Austin Dillon scored an upset victory at Richmond Raceway, in dramatic fashion, by wrecking both Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the final lap. However, NASCAR ruled on Wednesday that while Dillon’s win would stand, it would not be eligible for a playoff berth. The somewhat historic ruling means that only 12 drivers are currently locked into the playoffs with just 3 races remaining in the regular season. Furthermore, the points battle for those final playoff spots are extremely tight and that will be a major storyline on Sunday when the Cup Series returns to the Irish Hills for their annual stop at Michigan International Speedway and the running of the FireKeepers Casino 400!

From a betting perspective, Dillon’s move last week was very costly for our betting picks that were hoping to cash with Joey Logano. Needless to say, we will be hoping for some better luck this week. Typically, Michigan has strongly favored the top talents in the sport who have excellent car control in high-speed racing conditions. After all, Cup Series cars were topping out at 205mph going into the turns during Saturday’s lone practice session at Michigan which is some of the fastest speeds we have witnessed all season. Therefore, we would expect the drivers that excel at these high-speed conditions to emerge at the front of the field once again on Sunday.

With that being said, we cannot rule out the possibility of upset winners which was the case last year when Chris Buescher scored a victory in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Buescher’s win last year came in the middle of a hot stretch where he won 3 times within 5 races. However, Michigan can also produce true upset winners in various forms due to the strategy options that will be available. This two-mile race track has a history of producing fuel-mileage races. Not to mention, I would also expect more two-tire strategy calls on pit road this weekend as teams fight for track position. Track position is so important and there will definitely be a lot of strategy that comes into play on Sunday, especially if we get a few late race cautions. Therefore, we must keep an open mind from a betting standpoint and perhaps target a few dark horses that bring better ROI to our betting cards!

Michigan – Betting and Track Notes

I believe historical trends are very important towards handicapping Michigan International Speedway. Despite the changes in the car in recent years, Michigan continues to produce some of the fastest speeds in the Cup Series which favors the drivers with excellent car control at those speeds. So while people could argue the cars drive differently when you look back through historical data, there are still a lot of similarities. As a result, I believe historical trends are perhaps the most important handicapping indicator this week with car/manufacturer/team performance at the high-speed venues being a close 2nd. For now, let’s jump into the historical notes for Michigan!

• Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Michigan.
• Denny Hamlin (2), Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, and Chris Buescher are the only other drivers with wins at Michigan among active drivers.
• Despite not having any wins, Chase Elliott has the best average finishing position (10.2) among active drivers at Michigan.
• Martin Truex Jr (6.5) and Denny Hamlin (6.8) have produced superb average finishing positions over the last 10 races at Michigan which is the best among active drivers.
• Erik Jones has finished in the top 10 in both races at Michigan with the Next Gen Car.
• Tyler Reddick’s best finish at Michigan is 18th through 5 career starts.
• Christopher Bell’s best finish at Michigan is 13th through 5 career starts.
• Ford drivers have won 9 straight races at Michigan.
• The eventual race winner has started inside the top 5 in 6 of the last 8 races at Michigan.

Practice Observations

Qualifying for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 was canceled due to rain on Saturday. Fortunately, the rain held off for the majority of practice meaning we did get the opportunity to make some on-track observations. During practice, Ross Chastain paced the field with the fastest lap of the afternoon with a speed of 192.303mph. While Chastain’s lap was the fastest of the session, I don’t believe too much credit should be given to single lap speed especially considering the cool conditions on Saturday. In terms of race speed, Martin Truex Jr paced the field with the best 10 lap consecutive average. However, it is worth noting that only 11 drivers completed 10 consecutive laps due to the fact rain halted practice on two separate occasions.

While I believe Truex was the best car overall in terms of speed, Kyle Larson posted very similar lap times as well. Larson won a few weeks ago at Indianapolis which has some similarities to Michigan and also won 3 straight races at Michigan from 2016-2017. Therefore, Larson is among the drivers that is deserving of outright favorite style betting odds. Behind those guys, I thought Ross Chastain, William Byron, and Chris Buescher were among additional names that looked really solid on the stopwatch. With the exception of Truex, I was somewhat surprised that the Toyota drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing were further down the speed charts than many would have expected. In fact, Erik Jones was the only other Toyota driver that was inside the top 10 in overall lap averages. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the Toyota drivers “race” better on Sunday.

Betting Targets

Considering the fact that Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are deserving outright favorites, I believe Martin Truex Jr deserves similar overall favorite consideration. Truex has the best average finishing position among active drivers over the last 10 races and also won both stages in last year’s FireKeepers Casino 400 before residing to a runner-up finish. If you consider the fact Truex was also the best car in practice, I would consider the #19 as the best betting target going into Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400. In fact if I had to rank the top 3 based on what we have seen thus far this weekend, I would say Truex should be the outright favorite followed by Kyle Larson and then Denny Hamlin.

For dark horse considerations, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain are sneaky picks in the intermediate betting range. Both drivers showed a lot of speed in practice and have performed well at Michigan with the Next Gen Car. Not to mention, both Elliott and Chastain have been solid at the high-speed tracks throughout the year. For bigger long shots and perhaps more appropriate H2H targets, I really like Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones as guys that should receive betting consideration.

Busch has posted two straight DNFs in the last two races at Michigan but he finished 7th or better in the 7 races prior to those DNFs in the old car. While I understand there are still some uncertainty with the performance of the Richard Childress Racing cars, I would point out that Dillon’s performance last week was an obvious sign that they have found speed. Granted, the tracks are much different this week but if the RCR cars have indeed found speed, Busch at 30-1 odds is a steal. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones are two drivers that seem to be flying completely under the radar going into Sunday’s race despite the fact both drivers have performed really well at Michigan. Jones is receiving 100-1 odds which is borderline absurd and makes him a prime candidate for prop bet consideration as well. Either way, both drivers have a high likelihood of outrunning all the cars in their betting ranges making them sharp H2H betting targets!

2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Martin Truex Jr +600 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1200 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2500 (.5 unit)
Kyle Busch +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -125 over Christopher Bell (3 units)
Noah Gragson -110 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Bubba Wallace +250 wins Group 4 (1 unit) (Busch, Gibbs, Bowman)
Erik Jones +450 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Larson +450 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Erik Jones +450 finishes Top 10
Risking .5 unit to win: +1462.5

Kyle Larson -150 over Ryan Blaney
Daniel Suarez +150 over Alex Bowman
Risking 1 unit to win: +315