2024 Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 13th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: USA
On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage at Pocono Raceway for the running of the Explore The Pocono Mountains 225. In recent weeks, the Xfinity Series has been dominated by the heavy betting favorites in favor of odds makers. Shane Van Gisbergen won the last 3 straight road course races as the outright betting favorite which have all come in the last 6 outright races. Meanwhile, Cup Series’ drivers Christopher Bell and John Hunter Nemechek both scored wins as outright betting favorites at Loudon and Nashville. Needless to say, the Xfinity Series has produced the toughest racing of the season from a betting standpoint and I would not be surprised if that trend continues into Saturday.
As things currently stand, there are 5 different drivers listed at less than 7-1 betting odds led by William Byron who will be making his 3rd Xfinity Series start of the season for Hendrick Motorsports. Needless to say, Saturday’s Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 is shaping up to be another difficult handicapping event due to the extremely conservative betting odds. With that being said, there are reasons to be optimistic because the Tricky Triangle is rarely dominated by a single driver. Strategy, track position, and restarts will be an important part of the equation in deciding who ends up in victory lane.
Other factors that are not working in our favor surround the fact that it has been nearly two months since the Xfinity Series competed at an oval that is not considered a short track.In recent weeks, the schedule has been full of short tracks and road courses. While we did have a few races earlier in the year on bigger ovals, there are not any tracks that closely compare to Pocono and it’s difficult to predict performance when it has been so many weeks since we have seen these cars compete at higher horsepower style venues. Therefore, I believe bettors are going to be forced into a conservative approach especially considering cars have yet to hit the track, which will take place Saturday morning in just a few hours prior to the green flag.
Handicapping Pocono
In our preview on Friday, I mentioned the fact that handicapping Pocono was pretty straightforward for the Truck Series. Due to how those trucks are often driven at near full-throttle around the intermediate tracks, we had a strong understanding of the teams and drivers that were producing the most speed. I’m not sure that is the case for the Xfinity Series cars which are more sensitive to handling at Pocono compared to the other trucks/cars competing this weekend. Since the Tricky Triangle has 3 distinct corners, handling will be very important and there is not any room to miss the setup especially based on the level of competition in the Xfinity Series which has been very tight knit.
While there are not any tracks that closely compare to Pocono that the Xfinity Series has competed at this season, we do know the formula for success will be centered around speed. The 2.5 mile Tricky Triangle produces high-speed racing which should favor the top teams like Joe Gibbs Racing and JR Motorsports (including Hendrick) who have easily shown the best speed throughout the season. We can also consider driving styles as another handicapping angle. Despite the track’s size, Pocono is relatively flat and we do see some correlation in the drivers that have success on flat surfaces are also among those that usually perform well at Pocono. Therefore, we really have to take everything into consideration for this Xfinity Series race from a handicapping perspective.
Betting Targets
To be straightforward, current betting odds are downright awful and are not offering many reasons to be optimistic. I would argue that there is nearly 0 value on the top 6-8 drivers who collectively have a high probability of winning this race. Before I pull the trigger on drivers with sub 7-1 betting odds, I need more validation that will hopefully be gained during tomorrow morning’s practice session. Additionally, I believe we may get much better value following practice and qualifying on Saturday which may bring additional drivers into play. Odds makers typically overreact to qualifying results and that could work into our favor at Pocono where track position can be flipped with strategy plays.
For anyone wanting to explore some early options, I would lean towards dark horses that bring value to betting lineups in all formats. In my opinion, Jesse Love and Riley Herbst are among the drivers that fit perfectly into that category. Love has been at his best on the bigger tracks and he continues to flash a universal skill set which was on full display last week when he nearly won at Chicago. Meanwhile, Herbst has led laps and run inside the top 5 in a significant portion of the last two races at Pocono. If I am being honest, I thought Herbst would have won already this year but that has not been the case. I’m not sure if a win is the ceiling on Saturday but I do believe he can yield value in H2H formats and possibly prop bet formats as well. Other drivers that may have some low-risk/high-upside potential include guys like Taylor Gray and Brandon Jones.
**Final thoughts will be posted after practice/qualifying on Saturday when we have more clear validation on drivers that deserve our betting attention.**
Practice Observations – Final Thoughts
Update: Practice and qualifying for today’s Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 just concluded and Sheldon Creed has earned his first pole with Joe Gibbs Racing following a fast lap of 167.255mph. Behind Creed, Brandon Jones had one of his best qualifying efforts of the season and will start from the 2nd position. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier, Taylor Gray, and Chandler Smith rounded out the top 5. Obviously the early track position will be import and it’s worth noting that the eventual winner has never started outside the top 15 in Xfinity Series history at Pocono Raceway.
In practice prior to qualifying, William Byron appeared to have one of the fastest cars based on the stopwatch which is what most people expected. Justin Allgaier appeared to be the next closest competitor. Meanwhile, Cole Custer, Austin Hill, Brandon Jones, and Sheldon Creed were all within striking distance. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the speed from Ryan Sieg who posted the best 5 and 10 lap averages. Sieg followed up that speed with a 7th place qualifying effort and deserves legitimate betting attention based on the speed shown this weekend.
2024 Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Justin Allgaier +450 (1 unit)
Cole Custer +650 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +1000 (.75 unit)
Jesse Love +2200 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Justin Allgaier -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Jesse Love -115 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Brandon Jones +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
