2024 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 24th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will step into the spotlight for the running of the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. So far this season, the Cup Series has produced 5 different winners through the opening 5 races and there is a high possibility that streak could continue as NASCAR’s best tackle one of the most difficult road courses on the schedule. One of the popular storylines going into Sunday includes the return of Shane Van Gisbergen who will make his first start of the year following last year’s breakout win at Chicago in his series debut. Needless to say, there will be a lot to discuss as we prepare for the first road course race of the season.

Before we jump into trends and observations, I would first like to give a little background towards our venue. For those unaware, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is one of the newer road courses on the Cup Series schedule. In fact, this weekend’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix will be just the 4th trip to COTA in series’ history. Chase Elliott captured the inaugural victory at COTA back in 2021. Ross Chastain earned his first Cup Series victory with his win in 2022 and Tyler Reddick is the defending race winner of the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix. In regards to the track, COTA is a massive 20-turn, 3.41 mile road course that is very challenging. I would imply that COTA is the most difficult road course on the entire schedule because it challenges drivers in numerous ways. As a result, this race track typically favors those drivers with the better road course skills.

Anytime NASCAR visits a venue where the driver makes the most difference behind the wheel, it is an ideal handicapping opportunity because we don’t have to worry about equipment factors or teams completely missing the setup which happens often with the Next Gen Car. Instead, we can focus on those drivers that are consistently fast and beat the expectations from odds-makers. With that being said, these road course races have become sort of top heavy from a betting standpoint. Throughout the weekend, we have struggled to find value in the form of race winners because betting odds have been extremely conservative. If that trend continues, we will shift more focus towards H2H match-ups in order to give us our best opportunity to turn a profit.

Dynamic Averages – Road Courses

Due to the fact that road course racing is so dependent on the driver as opposed to equipment/setups, we can rely on our dynamic averages (road courses) as a solid handicapping tool this week. These averages display the last 5 races at road course venues in the Next Gen Car which all took place last season. While these stats do not represent 2024 performance, we can still rely on them as a solid foundation for expectations. As everyone will see, the majority of the usual suspects are at the top of this list which includes Christopher Bell, AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, and others.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect to that list is that Bell leads all drivers with an impressive 104.4 average driver rating over the last 5 road course events. I say “surprising” because I don’t think Bell has the public perception as one of the top road course talents. However, Bell captured his first career victory (Daytona Road Course) at a road course, has another road course win at the ROVAL, and has consistently produced winning speed as our metrics show. Meanwhile as we look at our dynamic averages holistically, I would point out other observations that include Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr being slightly less dominant than most would expect. Meanwhile, drivers like Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric have also consistently under-performed in recent road course races.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Cup Series teams were split into two groups for Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. However, I don’t believe the track conditions were too different from each session which is something we have to consider at certain venues. In practice, William Byron set the fastest time of both sessions and backed up that speed by winning the pole with a fast lap of 94.696mph. Byron edged out the Toyota brigade of Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell for the top spot with a surprise 5th place qualifying effort coming from the #7 of Corey Lajoie.

Before qualifying took place, it appeared that Kyle Larson would challenge for the pole. Larson consistently laid down some of the fastest laps in practice but had a disappointing 15th place qualifying effort. Along with Larson, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick were also among the most impressive drivers throughout both practice and qualifying on Saturday. I would also give solid notable mentions to Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe who appeared to be solid as well. One thing to note is that the Ford teams struggled in qualifying and did not have a single car in the top 10. While the Ford teams appeared to be at a slight disadvantage on Saturday, I do believe they will race better on Sunday but I’m not sure if it will be enough to catch the fastest teams.

Obviously, it would be difficult to single out every driver and how their Saturday transpired in the performance department. Therefore, I will try to stick towards highlighting the outliers. With that being said, I think it is worth mentioning that RFK Racing, which includes Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher, were way down the speed charts on Saturday. I mentioned the struggles from the Ford camp above but it appeared that RFK was the worst of the Ford teams and that is something that should be kept in mind as we move forward to race day. Other notable names that appeared to be trending in the wrong direction included heavy hitters in the likes of Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney.

If you are wondering about the likes of AJ Allmendinger and Shane Van Gisbergen, I thought both drivers were fairly solid in practice but did not have the elite speed that some of the other teams displayed. Both drivers are in Kaulig Racing equipment this week which may be slightly behind the performance curve.

Betting Targets

Odds-makers have gotten away with overreacting to qualifying this year and perhaps that is because the Toyota teams have a strong advantage which has carried over into the races. For Sunday’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix, we are once again seeing ridiculous overreactions to Ty Gibbs (+350) and William Byron (+380) who have both never won at a road course. Gibbs has never won a race at the Cup Series level and while I do believe he will be among the contenders on Sunday; there is simply no way to justify his current betting odds.

With that being said, the one thing I have not mentioned this week is the thought around “track position.” We typically don’t consider track position to be an important component to winning road course races but the top 7-8 drivers have razor thin margins. On Saturday, Kyle Larson proved that new tires may be beneficial in late race caution situations. Larson took advantage of tires and stormed back to win the Focused Health 250. I bring up these points because I think guys like Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain have the same winning probability if not better. Therefore, I will be glad to pivot to some of the favorites with much better value.

Speaking of Ross Chastain, he is one of my favorite drivers in all formats this weekend. Chastain has finished 4th or better in all 3 races at COTA which includes his breakthrough win in 2022. Chastain is just good at COTA and he was fast in practice before a somewhat disappointing qualifying effort. I’m not letting qualifying sway my opinion and I believe Chastain is one of the better value plays on the board and can be targeted aggressively in H2H formats. Other drivers that I believe should outrun their current betting odds include the likes of Michael McDowell and Alex Bowman. Bowman is another driver with a strong resume at COTA and both drivers have solid metrics in the Next Gen Car at the road course venues. Based on current betting odds, McDowell and Bowman are extreme underdogs which should provide value options for H2H and prop style bets.

2024 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +400 (1.25 units)
Christopher Bell +750 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1400 (.5 unit)
Kyle Larson +1600 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Alex Bowman -115 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Shane Van Gisbergen -145 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

Ross Chastain -150 over Chris Buescher/Kyle Larson +175 over Ty Gibbs (1 unit to pay +345)