2024 Dude Wipes 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 6th, 2024. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FS1
On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will have the opportunity to go racing under the lights at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Dude Wipes 250. The half-mile paperclip owns two dates on the Xfinity Series schedule which includes a return later this season during the height of the playoffs. For this weekend’s race at Martinsville, there will not be any significant playoff implications on the line. However, this race serves as a potential opportunity for several drivers to earn their first victory and secure a spot in the playoffs. We will discuss all of the drivers that bettors should have on their radar and attempt to find the best betting opportunities for the Dude Wipes 250!
On Friday, Xfinity Series teams had the opportunity to participate in practice and qualifying sessions. At the end of both sessions, Brandon Jones emerged with the pole after posting a fast lap of 96.151mph. Jones is a defending winner at Martinsville coming from his 2022 victory in the fall race and appears to be among the drivers trending in the right direction going into Saturday. With that being said, I do believe that Jones benefited by going out earlier in the qualifying session with cooler track conditions. Both Brandon Jones and Sheldon Creed (starting 3rd) benefited from cooler track conditions and won the battle for track position going into Saturday.
As many are aware, Martinsville Speedway is a small and flat half-mile surface where passing can be very difficult. Typically, drivers that are able to start towards the front have an advantage because track position is so important. With that being said, there is a talented group of drivers starting at the front of the field which includes Jones, Cole Custer, Creed, Jeb Burton, Justin Allgaier, and Aric Almirola who all qualified in the top 6 positions. Most of those same drivers also stood out in Friday’s split practice session and the likes of Custer, Allgaier, and Almirola have emerged as the outright betting favorites. Before we decide who to target, let’s first talk about betting and handicapping strategies for Martinsville.
Handicapping Strategy
If you missed the Truck Series preview, I mentioned that Martinsville is one of those tracks that are usually ideal for handicapping because the driver produces the most speed as opposed to equipment/setups. However, it is important that bettors understand individual driver skill sets for short track racing, especially racing on flatter surfaces where grip is difficult on corner exit. When we identify the drivers that excel at this type of racing conditions, our focus should be to find match-ups against other drivers that do not fit that narrative. These races at Martinsville are usually top heavy in terms of betting odds towards outright winners and that is why H2H match-ups will be important towards yielding value!
Practice Observations
It is worth noting that fast lap times were extremely close among the top 10 cars who were all separated by just two tenths of a second. Obviously, racing at Martinsville is about long-run speed which means that I am not paying attention to single fast lap times at all. I am more concerned about the consecutive lap categories and the timing that drivers were practicing in each session. With that being said, Justin Allgaier led nearly every consecutive lap category despite arguably being in the slower session. Allgaier is the most recent winner at Martinsville and is once again emerging as one of the drivers to beat.
Behind Allgaier, I thought Cole Custer, Sheldon Creed, and Aric Almirola were clearly the best of the field. Meanwhile, drivers like Taylor Gray, Brandon Jones, and Parker Kligerman were also strong on the speed charts as well. On the other end of the spectrum, Riley Herbst, Sammy Smith, and AJ Allmendinger were among the guys that do not show strong speed in practice. Allmendinger had the fastest single lap time of the entire session but his car showed a strong amount of falloff late in practice. Meanwhile, Herbst and Smith were reportedly struggling with handling issues.
Betting Targets
We were able to jump on Sheldon Creed at 12-1 odds early this week and I still believe that was the best value of the entire weekend. Creed appears to be among the outright favorites with Custer, Allgaier, and Almirola. I would not blame any bettors for wanting to target those individuals but I believe Allgaier and Almirola are most deserving in the skill set department. Almirola always excelled on flatter surfaces in the Cup Series and understands how to manage his tires. Not to mention, Almirola is in the best equipment in the series. Therefore if I had to choose a desired betting target among the Custer/Allgaier/Almirola trio, Almirola gets the edge.
Behind the top favorites, it becomes truly hard to find reliable contenders. Chandler Smith has been the fastest guy nearly every week but Smith wrecked in practice. Smith will be forced to start at the rear of the field and I haven’t seen anything to consider the #81 this week. Instead of looking for other potential winners, I believe it is easier to identify potential H2H targets. Corey Heim and Taylor Gray are full-time Truck Series drivers that will be starting mid-pack late Saturday. Both drivers have the skill set to impress at Martinsville and I believe they will move forward from their starting spots. Another young driver that will be making his first start is Carson Kvapil in the #88 car for JR Motorsports. Kvapil has a decorated resume and is very capable of running well despite it being his first start. Finally, I would also mention a low-tier driver that could produce H2H/prop value includes Ryan Sieg who has consistently performed well at Martinsville throughout his career.
2024 Dude Wipes 250 Race Picks
*FINAL*
Aric Almirola +350 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Sheldon Creed -145 over Sam Mayer (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -110 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Carson Kvapil -110 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
