Since the Daytona 500 back in February, NASCAR’s Cup Series has endured 38 weeks of racing which will culminate at Phoenix Raceway for the season finale to determine the Cup Series Championship. Last week, controversy struck the playoffs once again when Christopher Bell was penalized for wall-riding on the final lap. The penalty booted Bell from the Championship 4 and moved William Byron into the finale as the final driver to advance on points. As a result, Byron, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney will be the drivers competing for a championship on Sunday as we look to take advantage of the final betting opportunity of the season!
Last week, Ryan Blaney captured another clutch victory at Martinsville in a must-win situation to keep his championship hopes alive. Blaney won last year’s race at Martinsville and won the championship a week later at Phoenix. Needless to say, Blaney will have a chance to go back to back in similar fashion on Sunday. Meanwhile, Blaney’s teammate Joey Logano was one of the other controversial drivers in the playoffs. Logano advanced to the Round of 8 following Alex Bowman’s disqualification at the ROVAL following the Round of 12. Logano won the next week at Kansas, on fuel strategy, to earn his championship ticket and will have the opportunity to earn his 3rd career title.
William Byron is making his 2nd straight Championship 4 appearance and like Tyler Reddick is still searching for his first championship. Byron is currently receiving the best odds to dethrone Blaney but the #24 team has not won since the spring at Martinsville. While we know wins are not necessary to win the championship, the Cup Series Champion has won the season finale in 10 out of 11 races since this format was adopted in 2014. Therefore if any drivers are hoping to fulfill their championship dreams, they better show winning speed and be prepared to do everything possible to win tomorrow’s race outright. Due to this incredible trend of championship contenders winning the final race of the season in the Cup Series, bettors must understand that betting value will be extremely limited!
I am a firm believer that every track should be handicapped differently. In the case of Phoenix Raceway, I think our handicapping formula consists of a collection of different handicapping angles which includes prior performance at Phoenix (in the Next Gen Car), in-season performance at similar layouts, momentum, and practice/qualifying observations. For in-season performance trends, I would point bettors to our dynamic averages which display the last 5 short track races this season. Meanwhile, I have compiled loop data metrics for the last 5 races at Phoenix which are listed below. I would prioritize the loop data metrics into the overall handicapping equation as I believe it best represents how drivers have navigated Phoenix from behind the wheel. These metrics, along with our dynamic averages, should be the foundation of our expectations going into Sunday.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 114.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 85 | 166 | 254 | 1565 |
| William Byron | 109.4 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.8 | -18 | 127 | 171 | 1565 |
| Ross Chastain | 102.0 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 0 | 93 | 158 | 1565 |
| Kyle Larson | 100.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 4 | 81 | 203 | 1492 |
| Chase Briscoe | 93.2 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 11.2 | -21 | 82 | 114 | 1565 |
| Tyler Reddick | 92.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 46 | 56 | 68 | 1564 |
| Denny Hamlin | 91.9 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 10.0 | -10 | 57 | 82 | 1565 |
| Christopher Bell | 91.2 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 14.4 | 71 | 95 | 50 | 1359 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 89.7 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 16.0 | 11.6 | 25 | 81 | 56 | 1472 |
| Joey Logano | 86.7 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 12 | 45 | 191 | 1456 |
| Chase Elliott | 85.3 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 18.5 | 13.0 | -9 | 51 | 50 | 1246 |
| Chris Buescher | 81.3 | 17.8 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 14.8 | 32 | 44 | 18 | 1565 |
| Ty Gibbs | 79.5 | 9.0 | 16.7 | 17.3 | 14.3 | -3 | 20 | 57 | 940 |
| Kyle Busch | 75.0 | 18.2 | 17.4 | 13.8 | 16.2 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 1563 |
| Brad Keselowski | 72.5 | 17.8 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 15.8 | -23 | 14 | 1 | 1522 |
| Daniel Suarez | 71.1 | 18.6 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 16.8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1564 |
| Alex Bowman | 69.7 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 18.8 | 16.0 | 22 | 16 | 1 | 1557 |
| Bubba Wallace | 68.0 | 19.2 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 17.8 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 1563 |
| Ryan Preece | 68.0 | 21.3 | 20.3 | 16.3 | 18.0 | -10 | 11 | 0 | 940 |
| Erik Jones | 66.3 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 22.2 | 16.0 | -56 | 17 | 14 | 1557 |
| Noah Gragson | 64.9 | 19.5 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 18.5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 628 |
| Carson Hocevar | 64.8 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 624 |
| Michael McDowell | 64.2 | 15.4 | 22.0 | 16.4 | 20.2 | -22 | 7 | 0 | 1562 |
| Josh Berry | 59.3 | 26.5 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 627 |
| Austin Dillon | 57.7 | 21.8 | 20.6 | 18.8 | 21.8 | -17 | 7 | 0 | 1556 |
| Austin Cindric | 50.5 | 20.6 | 26.6 | 26.2 | 25.4 | -32 | 15 | 0 | 1246 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 46.0 | 26.4 | 29.4 | 24.6 | 26.2 | -22 | 12 | 0 | 1558 |
| Todd Gilliland | 44.5 | 27.2 | 23.0 | 25.4 | 26.2 | -46 | 1 | 14 | 1556 |
| Harrison Burton | 44.4 | 21.2 | 26.8 | 27.2 | 26.2 | -52 | 1 | 0 | 1552 |
| Justin Haley | 42.5 | 29.6 | 26.6 | 24.8 | 27.4 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 1560 |
| Corey LaJoie | 40.5 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 28.8 | 29.6 | -5 | 37 | 0 | 1185 |
| Zane Smith | 36.3 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | -7 | 11 | 0 | 624 |
The Cup Series held their only practice Friday evening in preparation for Sunday’s championship race. In Friday’s practice, Ryan Blaney posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 132.480mph. Blaney edged out Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Austin Cindric among the top 5 fastest drivers. Aside from single lap speeds, Blaney also dominated everyone with best consecutive lap averages in every category. Blaney had the best 5,10, and 15 lap consecutive averages. Teammate Joey Logano also showed really solid speed among the championship contenders. William Byron fired off well but did not show as much long-run speed as the Team Penske duo. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr were among the other drivers that stood out on the stopwatch. Hamlin appeared really strong towards the end of practice which is rare for the #11 team.
In Saturday’s qualifying, Martin Truex Jr earned the pole in what will be the final start of his legendary 20 year career. The former champion posted a fast lap of 134.741mph to edge out Joey Logano as the fastest qualifier. Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 5 positions. Perhaps the biggest surprise from qualifying was the fact Ryan Blaney slotted into the 17th position. After dominating practice on Friday, Blaney was the only championship contender to not make the final round of qualifying and will have some work to do in terms of track position. Meanwhile, other notable qualifying efforts surrounded the likes of Ty Gibbs (6th) and Harrison Burton (9th). Lastly, it’s just worth noting that qualifying positions have rarely shown any trends or correlations at Phoenix and should be given minimal consideration towards how we handicap Sunday’s championship finale.
The betting odds for Sunday’s championship finale are downright disrespectful to bettors. Not only are 3 of the 4 championship contenders listed at 4.5 odds or less, but there are 6 drivers listed at 10-1 odds or less as things currently stand. Obviously, I like Ryan Blaney’s chances to win on Sunday but there is simply no way I would support betting on a favorite, like Blaney, at 2.5 to 1 odds at a place like Phoenix where track position is so important. Perhaps Blaney is worth parlaying in effort to bring additional value but I don’t really like the betting odds on any of the championship favorites. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is perhaps the most dangerous driver in the field on short tracks this season and is getting somewhat decent value. As a result, I think Bell can be considered in futures (win) formats.
In terms of betting value, I don’t think it gets any better than Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe. Both drivers are receiving extremely generous odds and have winning upside. Briscoe should be considered a true long shot but has finished in the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races and has several quality finishes during that stretch. Hamlin was one of the fastest drivers in practice and has an exceptional resume at Phoenix. After a disappointing qualifying effort, Hamlin’s betting odds are extremely undervalued making him a near must-play on Sunday. I also like Hamlin and Ross Chastain in H2H formats because both drivers have realistic top 5 upside. Meanwhile, Briscoe and Chris Buescher are among the drivers that I would consider as better prop bet options. Both drivers are receiving extremely generous odds and are low-risk/high-reward betting options.
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