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2024 Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200 Race Picks

2024 Crown Royal 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 11th, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

Throwback weekend continues on Saturday with the Xfinity Series’ running of the Crown Royal Purple Bag Project 200 at Darlington Raceway. As many are aware, Darlington Raceway is among the most difficult challenges for drivers in NASCAR. For Saturday’s Crown Royal 200, that challenge just got even tougher due to the fact that practice and qualifying sessions were rained out on Friday due to rain. As a result, all drivers will be starting Saturday’s race without any on-track time and that includes several rookies who don’t have any experience with the Lady in Black.

As stated in our Truck Series preview, Darlington Raceway presents numerous challenges for drivers. The racing groove is extremely narrow which makes passing difficult. The racing surface is extremely old and abrasive which causes a rare combination of minimal grip and significant tire wear. Throughout the weekend, long-run speed will be critically important and teams will elect to get tires as much as possible. These unique racing conditions usually favor the top talents in the sport because drivers need to maintain a skill set that requires incredible car control, in order to make fast speeds at Darlington.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature ruined our opportunity to identify potential winners in the form of practice observations which elevates the risk of teams missing the setup early in Saturday’s Crown Royal 200. However, I think we can still attack this race from a handicapping perspective because we have a strong understanding off everyone’s driving styles and skill sets. William Byron and John Hunter Nemechek are the only wild cards in Saturday’s field who will both be stepping down from the Cup Series. While Byron appears to be an immediate threat for the outright win, Nemechek will be a lesser threat due to the fact that he will be driving the #26 car for Sam Hunt Racing which is a step down in the equipment department. Needless to say, I believe we can still provide a strong baseline for our expectations going into Saturday despite the cancellation of Friday’s sessions.

Darlington – Xfinity Betting Notes

  • Justin Allgaier (2), Cole Custer, and Brandon Jones are former Xfinity Series winners at Darlington.
  • Sheldon Creed is a two-time Truck Series winner at Darlington, John Hunter Nemechek also has a truck win at Darlington, and William Byron won last year’s spring race in the Cup Series at Darlington.
  • Justin Allgaier has impressively produced a 100+ driver rating in 9 of his last 10 starts at Darlington.
  • Cole Custer has finished 4th, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd, in his last 4 starts at Darlington.
  • Despite being a former winner at Darlington, Brandon Jones has 0 top 5 finishes and just 1 top 10 finish in his last 5 starts at Darlington.
  • Jesse Love, Carson Kvapil, and Shane Van Gisbergen are among the drivers without any prior experience at Darlington Raceway.
  • The last 4 winners have started from the top 3 starting positions.
  • Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of the last 6 races at Darlington.

Betting Targets

Obviously, William Byron is deserving of the favorite status going into Saturday but the #17 car has been hit or miss throughout the season with big names behind the wheel. Additionally, Bryon has just one Xfinity Series start at Darlington which resulted in a 5th place result back in 2017. As a result, I am more confident taking aim at the Xfinity Series regulars with better betting odds. Without question, Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer lead all Xfinity Series regulars as the deserving favorites. Personally, I believe Custer may be the sharper pick this week based on how the #00 has performed on the intermediate speedways but I can’t blame anyone for wanting to target Allgaier as well.

Behind the top guys, Sheldon Creed is the driver most likely to have a breakout win. Creed has been excellent at Darlington throughout his career and was so close to victory back in the 2022 fall race. Based on how the Toyotas have performed extremely well this season, Creed’s opportunity to score that first series win should be as high as ever. Another driver worthy of dark horse potential, especially in H2H formats, includes Riley Herbst in the #98 car. Herbst is not a driver that many think about at Darlington because he has some bad finishes caused by accidents. However when he has avoided trouble, his average rating and finishes have been very strong. Based on current betting odds, Herbst appears to have a much higher ceiling than those around him. Speaking of current betting odds, Jesse Love, Taylor Gray, and Ryan Sieg are among additional names that appear to be undervalued. All 3 of those drivers may provide value in H2H and/or prop bet formats.

2024 Crown Royal 200 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Cole Custer +400 (1 unit)
William Byron +500 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +800 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Riley Herbst -115 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Ryan Sieg +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Taylor Gray +110 over Carson Kvapil
William Byron +105 over Justin Allgaier
Risking 1 unit to win: +330