NASCAR’s Cup Series will provide another round of short-track racing on Sunday with the running of the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. Last week, Denny Hamlin joined William Byron as the only repeat winners this season. Hamlin’s victory was dramatic and controversial because it appeared the #11 car jumped the final restart. Either way, the finish at Richmond is what most fans would hope from NASCAR’s short tracks which have not always produced the best racing with the Next Gen Car. However, Martinsville Speedway is one of those tracks that rarely disappoints and we hope for another exciting afternoon of racing at the half-mile paperclip!
As most are aware, Martinsville is a small and very flat half-mile speedway. Drivers will be heavy on the brakes throughout the afternoon as they attempt to gain and defend track position on the bottom groove of the track. This racetrack typically yields to the drivers that can manage tires and carry long-run speed. In fact, the last 4 races at Martinsville, in the Next Gen Car, have produced minimal cautions and have often unfolded as a battle of long green flag runs. For these reasons, we will be trying to identify the drivers that have the highest likelihood of producing long-run speed and we will utilize different handicapping angles to point us in the right direction.
The good news about Martinsville Speedway is the racing product is usually favorable to handicappers and bettors. This is one of the few venues on the circuit where the driver is responsible for the majority of the speed as opposed to equipment/setups and that is why we commonly see familiar names at the front of the field each time we visit Martinsville. These conditions usually yield top heavy betting favorites with a high likelihood of winning which does limit the possibility for big underdog victories. With that being said, there still should be some sharp H2H and prop bet opportunities that will hopefully take us to the promised land of profits!
As I alluded to earlier, historical narratives are important towards handicapping Martinsville because this venue favors driver input over setup/equipment to a certain degree. For handicapping purposes, we could look at our dynamic averages at the short tracks for betting insight. However, our dynamic averages capture the last 5 races across all short tracks. Since I believe Martinsville is a very unique short-track, I compiled loop data stats from the last 4 races at Martinsville. I chose 4 races because that are all the races at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car and provide just enough sample data to identify emerging driver trends in this car.
As you will see below, Ryan Blaney leads all drivers with a 109.9 average driver rating. Blaney has developed into a phenomenal Martinsville talent over the last several years and won back in the fall which led to his eventual Cup Series Championship. For that reason, I jumped on Blaney early in the week at opening odds (+700) in fear that his number could get worse. Behind Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Chase Briscoe are among the only other drivers with triple digit average ratings. Briscoe is the surprise name in that group but it should not be surprising because Martinsville has become one of Briscoe’s best tracks. If you look further down this list, I would shift focus to some of the drivers that have more underwhelming performance trends which includes 3-time Martinsville winner Martin Truex Jr (74.4) and former Martinsville winner Alex Bowman (69.3).
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 109.9 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 33 | 164 | 150 | 1803 |
| Denny Hamlin | 105.6 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 49 | 178 | 395 | 1800 |
| Kyle Larson | 102.7 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | -21 | 82 | 98 | 1803 |
| Chase Briscoe | 102.5 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 0 | 110 | 134 | 1803 |
| Christopher Bell | 99.4 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 20 | 105 | 150 | 1802 |
| Chase Elliott | 99.2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 9.5 | -16 | 153 | 322 | 1802 |
| Joey Logano | 96.4 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 11.3 | 50 | 52 | 25 | 1803 |
| William Byron | 89.8 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 4 | 90 | 212 | 1802 |
| Brad Keselowski | 80.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 19.5 | 14.3 | -11 | 24 | 7 | 1609 |
| Ross Chastain | 79.2 | 20.8 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 14.5 | 22 | 36 | 31 | 1802 |
| Bubba Wallace | 78.2 | 15.0 | 19.5 | 11.3 | 14.8 | 51 | 28 | 0 | 1803 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 74.3 | 13.3 | 21.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 40 | 57 | 47 | 1799 |
| Daniel Suarez | 70.4 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 23.3 | 17.5 | -1 | 47 | 7 | 1573 |
| Austin Dillon | 69.9 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 18.5 | 20 | 39 | 1 | 1618 |
| Alex Bowman | 69.3 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 18.3 | 19.0 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 1299 |
| Todd Gilliland | 67.4 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 19.8 | 16.0 | -39 | 11 | 0 | 1798 |
| Chris Buescher | 67.3 | 13.5 | 20.8 | 15.5 | 18.3 | -14 | 16 | 0 | 1800 |
| Ty Gibbs | 67.0 | 13.3 | 15.0 | 18.7 | 18.0 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 1397 |
| Tyler Reddick | 60.4 | 18.8 | 20.3 | 25.5 | 19.3 | -39 | 28 | 0 | 1489 |
| Austin Cindric | 60.0 | 22.3 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 21.3 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 1797 |
| Michael McDowell | 55.1 | 18.0 | 21.3 | 21.8 | 20.5 | -57 | 19 | 0 | 1799 |
| Kyle Busch | 55.0 | 19.3 | 24.5 | 21.3 | 23.8 | -15 | 12 | 0 | 1795 |
| Erik Jones | 53.7 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 22.8 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1798 |
| Harrison Burton | 52.7 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 20.5 | 23.8 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 1797 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 52.5 | 23.8 | 23.5 | 19.3 | 22.5 | -26 | 1 | 0 | 1797 |
| Corey LaJoie | 52.4 | 24.3 | 20.8 | 25.5 | 22.8 | -44 | 13 | 3 | 1793 |
| Noah Gragson | 45.5 | 23.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 25.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 895 |
| Justin Haley | 40.9 | 24.0 | 26.8 | 29.3 | 27.5 | -29 | 2 | 0 | 1790 |
Kyle Larson emerged from Saturday’s on-track activities as the pole winner edging out Bubba Wallace by .001 seconds. Behind the front two guys, it was a top 10 filled with familiar Martinsville frontrunners that included Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Josh Berry, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman. While qualifying results are important towards establishing track position, I have consistently stated this weekend that single lap speeds at Martinsville can be very misleading. Ideal race speed will not show up until about 20-25 laps under green and there is a reason that the eventual race winner has started outside the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races. Martinsville races usually have impound qualifying, which was the case on Saturday, which means teams will not be allowed to make changes to their cars following qualifying. Under these conditions, teams are essentially qualifying with race setups and that is why those single lap speeds are often somewhat meaningless.
In practice, we perhaps got a better glimpse of potential race speed. However, I must break down practice observations into split groups because lap times were significantly different between both groups because of track conditions. In the opening group (A), Ryan Preece and Bubba Wallace were the surprise stories and showed the best overall speed which carried over into the consecutive lap categories. Wallace obviously backed up his speed in qualifying but perhaps Preece should remain on everyone’s radar for H2H purposes. In the same group, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Martin Truex Jr all showed solid speed. In the second group (B), lap times were much slower due to high track temperatures. In that group, Chase Elliott emerged as one of the best in the field. Kyle Larson also appeared to have elite speed which seemingly got better with each lap. Meanwhile, I would note Ty Gibbs also displayed solid speed.
In terms of betting targets going into Sunday, I would be foolish not to mention the strength of the Toyota teams this season which boost the stock of favorites like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr who have excelled on the short tracks with the Next Gen Car. With that being said, I’m looking for better value with our betting selections. William Byron and Chase Elliott appear to be among the guys that present the best value based on betting odds. Both drivers have excellent historical trends at Martinsville and appear to be trending in the right direction in terms of in-season performance. Not to mention, Hendrick Motorsports cars will be the emotional favorites going into the weekend.
Behind the outright favorites, Chase Briscoe sits in the intermediate range. I believe most bettors are hesitant of taking Briscoe because his odds have been saturated. However, Briscoe has been among the best cars this weekend and is also shown among the best statistical drivers at Martinsville based on our loop data with the Next Gen Car. This is an easy spot to overthink but I believe we should trust Briscoe as a potential target in all formats. Similar to the Briscoe hype, I think Josh Berry deservingly falls into that same category with a similar ceiling. While I believe Berry may be overvalued in outright win odds, I do believe his ceiling is higher with a better likelihood than the drivers around him. Further down the totem pole, I would say guys like Ryan Preece, Chris Buescher, and Daniel Suarez have the highest likelihood of moving forward and betting current expectations. All of those drivers appear to have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggests.
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