2024 Cook Out 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 11th, 2024. 6:30PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: USA

On Sunday, the Cup Series returns, from a two week break, with racing at Richmond Raceway for the running of the Cook Out 400. As things currently stand, 12 drivers have locked themselves into championship contention courtesy of victories this season. As a result, the rest of the competition is fighting for the 4 remaining playoff positions which would be decided upon points if there are not any additional first-time winners. Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, and others are among the drivers still fighting for a playoff spot and that will be the major storyline over the next few weeks as the regular season inches to a close.

Earlier this year, Denny Hamlin scored his 5th career victory at Richmond Raceway in the Toyota Owners 400. For those that remember, the spring race at Richmond was the first race that the Cup Series competed on the wet-weather tires. The race started under wet conditions but dried out after the first round of pit stops. Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr were the dominant cars throughout the race, combining to lead 372 of 405 laps. Truex actually was cruising to a victory but a caution came out less than a lap away from the white flag. Once that happened, Denny Hamlin and the #11 team won the battle on pit road and was able to hold off the field during an overtime finish for the win.

Despite the wild finish, Richmond Raceway typically produces long green flag runs with minimal cautions. In fact, 10 of the last 11 races have produced 5 cautions or less which includes the stage breaks. The reason I point out this trend is because the finish in the spring can be considered an anomaly. While cautions and overtime finishes are a part of racing, Richmond usually yields a lot of green flag racing and that usually favors handicappers/bettors who want to see natural finishes to the race. For those reasons and more, I always look forward to Richmond from a handicapping perspective and believe we should have strong opportunities to put together a solid betting card for Sunday!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

From a handicapping perspective, Richmond Raceway is one of those venues that heavily favors track history. The ¾ mile D-shaped oval has flat banking and an aged surface with minimal grip. It will test a driver’s ability to keep the car under control during heavy braking and test the ability to get back to the throttle without burning the rear tires off the car. Needless to say, this track requires a specialized skill set that can be similar to the likes of New Hampshire and Phoenix. For those reasons, we typically see familiar faces at the front of the field and rarely do we see surprise winners. Therefore, it is best for handicappers to analyze track history and recent performance at similar style venues in effort to establish the best baseline for Sunday.

From a betting perspective, these races at Richmond usually play into the hands of the favorites and those drivers with a strong resume at Richmond. Therefore, bettors may not always find sufficient value in terms of futures (win) bets. Instead, I would encourage bettors to put the majority of their focus towards H2H match-ups. The long green-flag runs and minimal cautions is ideal for H2H match-ups and that is likely where the bulk of our value will be found this weekend. As a result, I will not be afraid to lay bigger sized wagers towards H2H match-ups if we are able to identify mismatched H2H match-ups. If we find extreme value on specific drivers, we may consider some prop bet opportunities but we must understand that Richmond is not an ideal venue for dark horses.

Richmond – Track Notes

• Kyle Busch has the most wins (6) among active drivers at Richmond
• Denny Hamlin (5), Martin Truex Jr (3), Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher are all former winners at Richmond.
• Martin Truex Jr has an impressive 4.2 average finishing position over his last 10 races at Richmond.
• Denny Hamlin (5.2) and Joey Logano (6.1) also have very strong average finishing positions over the last 10 races at Richmond.
• Truex, Hamlin, and Logano are the only drivers with 100+ average driver ratings over the last 7 races at Richmond.
• Truex and Kyle Larson are the only drivers with 100+ average driver ratings in the last 3 races at Richmond in the Next Gen Car.
• Joey Logano has finished 7th, 4th, and 2nd in the 3 races at Richmond in the Next Gen Car.
• Josh Berry has strong finishes of 2nd and 11th in two career starts at Richmond.
• Tyler Reddick has just 1 career top 10 finish (10th) in 8 starts at Richmond.
• Ryan Blaney has a 20.0 career average finish and has finished no better than 14th in the Next Gen Car at Richmond.
• There have been 5 cautions or less in 10 of the last 11 races at Richmond.
• The eventual race winner has started outside the top 10 in 5 of the last 7 races at Richmond.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Earlier today (Saturday), Cup Series teams had a full 45 minute practice session before qualifying. In practice, Austin Dillon surprisingly laid down the fast lap in the early part of the session. Dillon’s speed of 118.953mph was the best among the competition and marked the first time this season Dillon topped the charts in practice. With that being said, I would not give a lot of attention to single lap speeds because Richmond is geared to long-run speed. In terms of long run speed, I was pleasantly surprised with the speed from the TrackHouse Racing cars of Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez. It is no secret that the Chevrolet teams, especially those outside of Hendrick Motorsports, have struggled this year. However, I saw more speed from the Chevrolets in Saturday’s practice with Dillon topping the charts and strong long-run speed from Chastain and Suarez.

Overall, I’m not sure if practice really gave us much insight into who may win Sunday’s Cook Out 400. Some of the big names like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex did not show as much speed as expected. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell appeared to be among the best of the favorites going into the weekend. However, Denny Hamlin redeemed himself in qualifying by winning the pole for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 with a speed of 118.162mph. Martin Truex Jr (2nd), Josh Berry (3rd), Chase Elliott (4th), and Christopher Bell (5th) were among the guys that rebounded well from practice to capture top 5 starting positions. Needless to say, I’m not giving too much credit to practice speeds to determine our betting selections for Sunday!

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets for Sunday’s Cook Out 400, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex have ballooned into overwhelming favorites, with Christopher Bell in close proximity from a betting odds standpoint. Obviously, all 3 drivers are heavy hitters on the short-tracks but I would give Truex the slight edge based on various handicapping angles. Meanwhile, Joey Logano, William Byron, and Ross Chastain are among the guys that are screaming “value.” Logano has been among the top 3 drivers in every statistic at Richmond. Meanwhile, Byron and Chastain have shown race winning speed on multiple occasions at Richmond and are getting extremely generous betting odds.

In terms of H2H targets, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Daniel Suarez are among the drivers that appear poised to shatter their ceilings based on current betting odds. Chastain and Bowman both have very solid resumes at Richmond and are getting nearly 50-1 odds. I’m not exactly sure why the odds are so generous for both drivers but I believe both guys have the ability to outrun the other competitors in the similar betting odds’ range. Austin Dillon, Bowman, and Suarez are all among the group of guys that are getting deep odds that could payoff, positive value, in prop bet formats. Both Dillon and Bowman have flashed performances worthy of consideration at Richmond and are getting very generous betting odds!

2024 Cook Out 400 Optimal Lineup



2024 Cook Out 400 Betting Picks

*Final*
Martin Truex Jr +450 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +900 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +2000 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +4000 (.5 unit)


H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -115 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Chris Buescher -140 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Josh Berry +250 wins Group 3 (Busch, Blaney, Wallace)(1 unit)
Justin Haley +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)