In the last two weeks, the battle for the final playoff positions have been absolutely wild. At one point, Austin Dillon’s win at Richmond appeared to rock the playoff battle but then NASCAR took away his playoff berth as a result of purposely wrecking both Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the final lap at Richmond. After that drama concluded, last week’s race at Michigan presented numerous problems for all of the drivers around the cutoff line. As things currently stand, there are several drivers that are still in jeopardy of missing the playoffs which includes big names like Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and others. On Saturday, many drivers’ playoff fate could be solidified when the Cup Series returns to the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway for the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400!
Obviously, superspeedway racing is extremely volatile with the possibility of big multi-car accidents and incidents which could have big playoff impacts. More importantly, the product of superspeedway racing opens the door for so many potential winners including those drivers well outside the points battle. Needless to say, the playoff battle and implications throughout the Coke Zero Sugar 400 will be very intriguing. For bettors, Daytona yields some of the most unpredictable racing on the planet which is not ideal from a handicapping standpoint. With that being said, betting odds are more generous for this style of racing and often yield big payday opportunities which is what we will be chasing when the green flag waves Saturday night.
While upset winners are definitely more probable at the superspeedways, I don’t think that should be the selling point to bettors either. We don’t have to hit huge underdogs to make money at this style of racing but we must have an ROI-based approach to our betting selections. After all, these races are won by the drivers that possess the unique skill set of superspeedway racing more times than not. In fact, just 4 drivers (Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, William, Byron, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr) have won 9 of the last 17 races at Daytona which is probably one of the weirdest yet understandable stats you will see throughout the weekend. Therefore while we will definitely have some underdogs on our betting card, we also must make sure to have the better superspeedway talents on our betting cards as well!
One of our best handicapping tools this weekend will be reviewing the recent superspeedway races with the Next Gen Car which includes superspeedway venues outside of just Daytona. Fortunately, our dynamic averages have already compiled the last 5 superspeedway races to paint a picture of how teams/drivers have performed at the superspeedway venues recently. Obviously, performance stats only establish trends and by no means guarantee any type of results going into Saturday. One wrong move by a driver at the front of the field can wipe out half the field under the right conditions and often drivers are innocent victims of other people’s issues at Daytona. However, our dynamic averages can shed some light into the drivers that consistently run towards the front of the field and perhaps suggest the drivers that have a higher probability of being in position to win on Saturday.
As you will see from the link above, Joey Logano continues to lead all drivers with the best average rating (91.3) over the last 5 superspeedway races. In the Daytona stats above, Logano also has the best average driver rating (96.0) at Daytona over the last 6 races. Needless to say, there is a legitimate argument to place Logano as the overall favorite going into Saturday. Behind Logano, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Austin Cindric, and Kyle Larson are among the drivers with the best average ratings. Larson is perhaps the biggest surprise to that list considering his horrendous stats at the superspeedways. Meanwhile, Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland are among the drivers with stats that exceed most expectations. Interestingly enough, McDowell qualified on the pole for Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 and Gilliland was also extremely fast with a runner-up qualifying run. Therefore the Front Row Motorsports brigade has shown tremendous speed this weekend and also have the stats to support betting consideration going into Saturday’s main event!
Based on the performance metrics, I would say that Joey Logano is the rightful favorite going into Saturday despite the recent strong performances from Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and others. Personally, I also really like the way Kyle Busch has performed at the superspeedways. However, I wish “Rowdy” had slightly better betting odds. Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr are among the drivers in the intermediate betting range that deserve betting attention. Both Wallace and Elliott have consistently produced strong performance metrics at the superspeedways. Meanwhile, Truex has never won at a superspeedway venue despite multiple stage wins and strong performances in recent races. As a result, I think Truex can be considered a viable option despite his somewhat questionable track record.
Further back in the field, Austin Cindric, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Noah Gragson are my favorite dark horse options. Cindric and Stenhouse are former winners at Daytona and are very underrated superspeedway talents. Stenhouse actually has multiple wins at Daytona and has extra betting value following a subpar qualifying effort on Friday. Meanwhile, Noah Gragson is among the drivers that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Gragson has always been a strong superspeedway talent going back to his earlier career in the Xfinity Series and has much higher upside than his 40-1 odds suggest. If you are looking for deeper options, Justin Haley and Austin Hill appear poised to outrun the current betting odds. Hill and Haley are both superb talents that are in subpar equipment but have the skill set to exceed expectations making them viable prop or H2H betting options!
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