2024 Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 Race Picks

Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 9th, 2024. 4:45PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight on Saturday for the first race of the season at Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200. Obviously, Phoenix is not just another race venue but it also remains the season finale which determines the championship in each touring series. As a result, this weekend’s races between the Xfinity and Cup Series could be strong indicators towards the drivers that will be tough to beat in the fall when a championship is on the line.

Obviously, we are not overly concerned with playoff or championship narratives this week but rather getting back on track, from a betting standpoint, after a disappointing weekend at Las Vegas. For the opening race this weekend in the Xfinity Series, we will have another stacked entry list with William Byron making a start in the #17 with Hendrick Motorsports. Meanwhile, John Hunter Nemechek returns to the #20 following last week’s win at Las Vegas and Aric Almirola returns to the #19 with Joe Gibbs Racing for another part-time start. These current and former Cup Series drivers join an extremely talented field of Xfinity Series regulars that are going to keep things very interesting throughout the year.

Despite the stacked field, William Byron is obviously the overall betting favorite this week. Not only is he among the top talents in the Cup Series but he has also shown really good performance trends at Phoenix throughout his career. In fact, Byron won the fall Xfinity Series race at Phoenix in 2017 in his only full season in the series. Byron also won the spring race, in the Cup Series, at Phoenix last season which he will try to defend once again on Sunday. Needless to say, Byron will head into race day as the betting favorite by a pretty strong margin. Our job is to determine if there are other drivers worthy of betting consideration and find the best betting targets for a profitable afternoon.

Betting Strategy

I’m remaining very conservative on the Xfinity Series side because I believe this series is going to be difficult to predict for the majority of the season. There are so many talented drivers in this series and I truly believe we will see 10 or more different winners this season. More importantly, this weekend’s schedule for the Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 makes things even more difficult for handicappers and bettors. Unlike the Cup Series that held practice on Friday, Xfinity Series teams will not get an opportunity to practice until Saturday just a few hours prior to the green flag. As a result, we will have a tight window between the conclusion of on-track activities and the start of the race. Since betting odds often overreact to practice and qualifying results, our best plan of attack for value will likely feature blind betting selections without any on-track observations.

Phoenix Notes

• Justin Allgaier (2) has the most wins at Phoenix Raceway, among active drivers racing on Saturday, in the Xfinity Series.
• William Byron (2017), Brandon Jones (2020), Sammy Smith (2023), and Cole Custer (2023) are also former winners at Phoenix Raceway in Xfinity Series competition.
• Sheldon Creed and Riley Herbst finished in the Top 5 in both Xfinity Series races at Phoenix last year.
• Justin Allgaier, Sammy Smith, and Sheldon Creed are the only drivers with +100 average driver rating over the last 3 races at Phoenix in Xfinity Series competition.
• Despite a win in 2020, Brandon Jones has finished outside the top 10 in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix Raceway.
• Chevrolet drivers have only won once in the last 8 races at Phoenix.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 6 of the last 7 races at Phoenix in Xfinity Series competition.

Betting Targets

While I’m sure we will have a more clear understanding of drivers to target and bet following Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions, I do believe the field will likely be chasing William Byron. However, I also believe the Joe Gibbs Racing cars may have the best opportunity to deliver the upset. The Toyotas were very stout at Phoenix last season and I’m expecting a similar storyline on Saturday. Chandler Smith showed that he is ready to take a step forward in JGR equipment by a dominating performance last week at Las Vegas which resulted in a runner-up finish. I believe Smith is going to be among the breakout candidates in the series this season and he is definitely in-play again on Saturday.

From a betting standpoint, Sheldon Creed is one of my favorite targets going into Saturday in all formats. Creed was excellent at Phoenix last year and is in better equipment this season. In fact, Creed will be driving the #18 which dominated this race last year with Sammy Smith. This is a big opportunity for Creed to get his first victory and I believe betting odds are pretty generous based on ceiling potential. Outside of Creed, I believe Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, and Chandler Smith should be the agreed-upon frontrunners to challenge Byron on Saturday. Allgaier has been fantastic at tracks like Phoenix and Richmond throughout his career, but perhaps we need some clarification if the #7 team hits the setup this week. For H2H specific fliers, I believe Riley Herbst and Sam Mayer may both provide winning opportunities in intermediate match-ups.

If you notice, I have not included John Hunter Nemechek, Sammy Smith, Brandon Jones, and other talented drivers into the potential win category. Nemechek seems to always be a threat in Xfinity Series competition but has never performed extremely well at Phoenix. In fact, Nemechek’s best finish at Phoenix is 4th in 7 career starts. Meanwhile both Smith and Brandon Jones are former winners at Phoenix. Smith is with a different team this season at JR. Motorsports and Jones has never replicated the success since the 2020 victory. I will actually be looking for potential opportunities to fade Smith and Jones for these exact reasons, we will just need to find the ideal drivers to target in order to pull the trigger on those fade opportunities.

2024 Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*
Cole Custer +300 (1.5 units)
Chandler Smith +600 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1100 (.75 unit)


H2H Match-Ups and Props

Early match-ups and group prop bet courtesy of Bovada
Riley Herbst -110 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +275 wins Group A (Herbst, S. Smith, Almirola)(1 unit)