2024 Cabo Wabo 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 17th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: USA
Earlier today, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returned to action for the first time in nearly 3 weeks with practice and qualifying sessions at Michigan International Speedway in preparation for Saturday’s Cabo Wabo 250. The last time the Xfinity Series competed was back in July at Indianapolis Motor Speedway which produced one of the greatest finishes of the season. Riley Herbst emerged from a 3-way battle along with Cole Custer and Aric Almirola to earn his first win of the season. While Indianapolis produced high-speeds and fantastic racing, Michigan International Speedway is poised to produce a similar product when the green flag waves for the Cabo Wabo 250!
While the outcome of Saturday’s Xfinity Series’ return remains to be determined, we do know that Sheldon Creed will lead the field to the green flag after capturing the pole on Friday. Creed posted a blazing fast lap of 171.645mph to earn the pole over Riley Herbst, Taylor Gray, Cole Custer, and Chandler Smith. Obviously everyone is well aware that Creed has yet to earn a victory in the Xfinity Series despite numerous runner-up finishes. However, all of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas displayed strong speed during Friday’s sessions to prove they could be the cars to beat. Among those Toyotas included rookie Taylor Gray who qualified 3rd and last year’s winner John Hunter Nemechek who returns to the #20 this weekend in hopes for a 2nd straight win at Michigan.
For those unaware, the Xfinity Series will once again run their “restrictor plate” rules package this week at Michigan. While Michigan is not traditionally considered a restrictor plate track, the Xfinity Series has run similar rules packages at some of the bigger non-superspeedway ovals in recent years. In fact, this is the same package that the series ran a few weeks ago at Indianapolis and also earlier this season at Atlanta. While Indianapolis and Michigan have some differences from a layout standpoint, bettors should be looking back to how teams/drivers performed at Indianapolis since the exact same rules package will be used again this weekend. Therefore, hopefully we can combine those observations with historical narratives and also discuss Friday’s on-track sessions to formulate our betting picks for Saturday!
Betting Strategy
While I outlined some of the areas of focus for handicapping Michigan above, I also think it’s important to discuss betting strategy. Michigan is a relatively large two-mile oval that can bring things like fuel mileage and strategy into the fold. While the shorter Xfinity Series races are not as subject to fuel mileage, I would not be surprised to see more calls for track position throughout the weekend especially in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400.
However, I would not rule out the possibility of strategy playing into the equation on Saturday either and that is why I believe bettors can take some chances with dark horses. Needless to say, I would not advocate bettors placing hefty wagers on any single drivers this week and instead would promote a value-based approach from a futures (win) standpoint. With that being said, I will also be looking for value based prop bets this week. The limitation of horsepower with this rules package could produce some surprise names that may sneak into the Top 10 or perhaps even the Top 5. Therefore, perhaps we can chase some prop bet opportunities as well!
Practice Observations
As I alluded to earlier, Friday’s practice was dominated by the JGR Toyotas. Chandler Smith and Sheldon Creed paced the field with the best lap times leading most of the major consecutive lap categories. Additionally, John Hunter Nemechek and Taylor Gray displayed solid speed as well. Considering Friday’s qualifying was an impound session meaning teams will not be allowed to conduct overnight changes, it appears that JGR has the clear frontrunner position going into Saturday. With that being said, Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones also displayed solid lap times in practice. Both Allgaier and Jones have strong Michigan resumes therefore I would not rule out either driver from having a chance to compete at the front of the field.
Personally, I was expecting to see more speed from the Stewart-Haas cars of Cole Custer and Riley Herbst in practice considering how well they performed at Indianapolis. However, those cars did not show the elite level speed that some of the other teams did in practice. Both Custer and Herbst rebounded to qualify in the top 5 positions so perhaps they are not as far off the pace as practice times suggested. Meanwhile, popular names like Austin Hill, AJ Allmendinger, and Shane Van Gisbergen were among the drivers that struggled throughout Friday’s sessions. Hill and Allmendinger have typically been strong at the high-speed tracks so their struggles were somewhat surprising.
Betting Targets
Going into the weekend, I was extremely high on Riley Herbst and Brandon Jones as guys that can legitimately contend for a victory on Saturday. Unfortunately, Herbst is at much lower odds than I expected but he also qualified in the 2nd position. Herbst also really impressed me at the end of the race at Indianapolis when he clearly drove the wheels off the car in those final laps to get the victory. If we see that same driving again, do not rule out the opportunity for Herbst to go back to back. With that being said, Herbst is more of a sharp pick than a value pick. I put Herbst in the same category as John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer who should be the outright betting favorites.
At 20-1 odds, Brandon Jones is a good dark horse play and excellent H2H option. Personally, I hate betting on Jones because he often disappoints but he has been excellent at Michigan in recent years. Additionally, I would call out the fact that guys like Chandler Smith and Taylor Gray are also worthy of betting consideration in all formats. I mentioned the speed that the Toyotas have shown on multiple occasions in this preview yet we are getting premium value on both Smith and Gray. While Gray is obviously a long shot and a better H2H option, Smith showed enough speed to warrant legitimate consideration in all betting formats.
For the first time in several weeks, odds makers have listed numerous betting match-ups including some of the lower-tier drivers that have not been offered much this season. I really like guys like Ryan Sieg and Shane Van Gisbergen as prop bet/H2H betting targets. Both drivers have strong race craft and have performed well with this rules package. SVG is currently paired against some bottom-tier talents which is surprising considering he finished 4th at Indianapolis. As a result, I may pull the trigger on a few extra plays this week courtesy of the extra match-ups that are being offered!
2024 Cabo Wabo 250 Optimal Lineup
2024 Cabo Wabo 250 Betting Picks
*FINAL* Riley Herbst +650 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1200 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +2800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Sheldon Creed -115 over Jesse Love (2 units)
Brennan Poole -130 over Ryan Ellis (2 units)
Shane Van Gisbergen -115 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
Two Team Parlays
John Hunter Nemechek +400 wins Cabo Wabo 250
Denny Hamlin +550 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Risking .5 unit to win: +1575
Cole Custer -150 over Austin Hill
Jeb Burton -165 over Kyle Weatherman
Risking 1 unit to win: +165