2024 Buckle Up South Carolina 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 10th, 2024. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

On Friday, the Craftsman Truck Series will visit the Lady in Black for the running of the Buckle Up South Carolina 200 at Darlington Raceway. All of NASCAR’s major touring series will be in action over the next 3 days as the sport celebrates their history in what has become known as “Throwback Weekend” which will feature numerous throwback paint schemes honoring some of NASCAR most iconic teams, drivers, and most memorable skins. From the spectator side of the house, throwback weekend offers a unique and interesting twist to the race weekend at one of the most unique and historical tracks on the circuit.

From the betting side of the house, Darlington Raceway, aka The Track Too Tough To Tame is one of the most difficult tracks on the schedule. Darlington is one of the oldest tracks in NASCAR and the track’s surface is also one of the oldest as well. As a result, the 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval has minimal grip and abrasive surface that will cause significant tire wear throughout each racing series this weekend. Commonly referred to as a “drivers track,” Darlington can be considered among the ultimate test for drivers especially in race conditions with an extremely narrow racing groove. Due to all of these variables of minimal grip, excessive tire wear, and overall difficulty, Darlington typically favors the most “talented” and “skilled” drivers as opposed to speed yielded by manufacturing (setup/chassis/engine/etc) components.

For those reasons, I have often considered Darlington a good track for handicappers because we can focus on the more talented drivers rather than those drivers in the fastest equipment which is the case at most other intermediate layouts. For the Buckle Up South Carolina 200 on Friday, the Truck Series will have to deal with Rowdy Kyle Busch once again. Busch has already won in 2 of his 4 starts this season and is arguably among the most talented drivers of our generation. Needless to say, Rowdy will be a huge favorite going into Friday evening’s event for all the right reasons. However, we are going to spend some time discussing reasons why we could look at betting options outside of Busch that could yield opportunities for a desirable payday!

Breaking Down The Field

Since we will not see trucks on-track until late Friday, we must make a strong attempt to break down the field and the competitors to understand what should be expected for the Buckle Up South Carolina 200. For starters, Ben Rhodes (2020) and Christian Eckes (2023) are the only former Truck Series winners at Darlington that will be competing Friday evening. While Busch owns the most all-time wins in the Truck Series, interestingly he has never made a start at Darlington Raceway in a truck. The Truck Series competed at Darlington sparingly until it was put on the schedule annually in 2020. As a result, Busch has never made a start at Darlington in this particular series and maybe for that reason should not be as big of a favorite as current betting odds suggest.

Last year, Corey Heim and Christian Eckes essentially dominated this race by leading 148 of 158 laps combined. Interestingly, Heim and Eckes have been the guys to beat in the series this season among the full-time competitors. Heim is coming off a strong win at Kansas Speedway just last week but Eckes has shown terrific speed throughout the year. Needless to say, it would not be a bad idea to pivot from Busch to one of the Heim/Eckes options simply based on betting value. While other drivers like Ross Chastain, Taylor Gray, and Nick Sanchez may be early potential dark horses, I’m not sure if we should “expect” anyone to go knock off the Big 3 based on performance trends this season and going back to last year’s Darlington race. As a result, we may be forced to look at H2H options as our primary source for potential profit and/or perhaps identify more reliable dark horses following practice on Friday.

Betting Targets

To be honest, I was expecting to get better value from some of the guys behind Rowdy. Busch is essentially even money and both Eckes/Heim are listed at 5.5-1 odds or less. While I can’t necessarily blame odds-makers for that strategy, they have essentially saturated any value from the futures (win) market for Friday’s race among the Heim/Eckes duo. I am hoping that qualifying may shake some things up and provide some better value on the Big 3; however I am not exactly holding my breath either. Perhaps the worst fact that I mentioned above is that I am not highly confident in any dark horses, at least highly confident in their chances to pull off an upset victory.

For potential dark horses, I will be eagerly watching talents like Ty Majeski, Ross Chastain, and Nick Sanchez who have each shown solid performance results in prior truck races at Darlington. Chastain has not been much of a factor in prior Truck Series starts due to the struggling trends from Niece Motorsports but should have a better chance at a quality performance on Friday. Majeski and Sanchez perhaps have higher ceilings with Sanchez being the better sleeper that is perhaps worthy of early H2H consideration. Meanwhile, Tanner Gray and Dean Thompson are a couple of lesser known names that are also on my radar for H2H/prop consideration. Gray finished 3rd in last year’s Buckle Up 200 and Thompson finished respectively in 9th. Both drivers are in solid equipment and have higher upside than current betting odds suggest.

Practice Observations – Final Thoughts

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded at Darlington Raceway and Nick Sanchez has earned the pole for tonight’s Buckle Up South Carolina 200 following a blistering lap of 167.905mph. Sanchez was among the drivers on our dark horse radar and I’m sort of kicking myself for not taking a small play on the +1400 odds before today’s sessions. With that being said, all of the top guys are starting at the front of the field which likely means the Big 3 are still going to be very tough to beat.

In the brief practice before qualifying, it appeared that Tanner Gray and Christian Eckes were among the trucks with the most speed. Gray has looked good throughout every session which means hit/miss the +1000 prop bet for a top 5 finish was a sharp move. In practice, Ross Chastain and Stewart Friesen were some additional names that looked good on the stopwatch. Kyle Busch and Corey Heim went out a little later than most competitors meaning they did not get the fast lap speed from the cooler track conditions. However, both drivers showed strong pace. I tend to believe Heim has one of the best trucks in the field but Busch is definitely within striking distance especially the deeper tonight’s race goes.

2024 Buckle Up South Carolina 200 Race Picks

FINAL

Christian Eckes +550 (.75 unit)
Nick Sanchez +1700 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tanner Gray +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Dean Thompson +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Corey Heim +185 wins Buckle Up South Carolina 200
Toyota +115 wins the GoodYear 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +515