2024 Brickyard 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 21st, 2024. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the oval course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS) for the infamous running of the Brickyard 400. As everyone is aware, the Cup Series has competed on the road course at Indianapolis since the 2021 season. However, those races never produced the excitement nor the level of prestige that is typical with racing on the historic oval, which is also the home of the Indianapolis 500. While IndyCar has the most history at IMS, NASCAR did a great job of creating their own version of history at IMS during the early 90s and will make a much anticipated return to the 2.5 mile oval course on Sunday.

Before we dive into further discussion for Indianapolis, it is worth noting that all of NASCAR’s touring series will be out of action for the next two weekends while the Olympic Games commence in Paris. The Cup Series rarely has any off weeks so I wanted to ensure everyone was aware of the upcoming rare hiatus. With that being said, racing at the Brickyard should provide an intriguing farewell before the break. We have not seen racing at the oval course at Indianapolis in the Next Gen Car and there remains some uncertainties despite two straight days of on-track activities.

Earlier today, Tyler Reddick earned the pole for Sunday’s Brickyard 400 with a fast lap of 181.932mph. The pole is Reddick’s 2nd of the season and the 7th of his career. Ironically, Reddick has just one victory from the pole in his career which came at Indianapolis in 2022 at the road course. Therefore, Reddick will be attempting another similar feat on the oval tomorrow afternoon. Behind Reddick, the qualifying results were headlined by heavy names with Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney who rounded out the top 5 starting positions. We will discuss those names and others that should be considered as legitimate betting options for Sunday’s Brickyard 400!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy for IMS

I wrote a similar narrative for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at IMS but perhaps it is worth repeating. Due to the limited history on the oval at IMS in recent years and the fact this is the first race with the Next Gen Car, we have a lot of uncertainties from a historical perspective. As a result, our handicapping angles must center around performance/raw speed (very important for IMS), practice observations, and perhaps also consider drivers that have typically performed well at high-speed tracks like Pocono and Michigan. Those tracks draw the closest comparison to IMS and are comparable from a handicapping perspective.

From a betting perspective, I believe bettors should be very cautious. IMS is a big 2.5 mile speedway that produces minimal tire wear which means teams and drivers will be attempting various pit strategies as they fight for track position similar to last week’s race at Pocono. The Cup Series is already producing incredible parity but these conditions could easily help play into a situation where track position wins the race which is exactly what happened with Ryan Blaney last week at Pocono. As a result, I like the strategy of downgrading bet sizes and looking for various plus value opportunities. I felt like this was the appropriate strategy last week at Pocono but we did not come out on the right side. Therefore, I’m essentially doubling down for Sunday’s Brickyard 400!

Practice Observations

On Friday, Tyler Reddick was also the fastest guy in practice which made Saturday’s pole winning effort unsurprising to say the least. Reddick had the best single lap speed at 182.582mph and also led both the best 5/10 consecutive lap average categories. Behind Reddick, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson appeared to be among the top drivers in terms of speed and consistency. Hamlin and Larson have both shown strong trends at Pocono which has some similarities to Pocono. Another driver that has performed well historically at Pocono and also flexed speed on Friday included the #6 of Brad Keselowski. Keselowski did not have a good qualifying effort (26th) on Saturday but I believe there is more speed behind the #6 car than the qualifying effort suggests.

For what it’s worth, I thought William Byron and Ryan Blaney also showed solid speed on Friday. Both drivers were fast in last week’s race at Pocono and Blaney actually got the win on a track position call. While I don’t think either driver displayed the outright best speed compared to some of the names mentioned above, both drivers are easily within striking distance. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, and Carson Hocevar were among the additional group of names that appeared to show more speed than anticipated. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Elliott, and Daniel Suarez were among the names that appeared to be much worse than bettors would have expected, simply based on speed observations from practice.

Betting Targets

Due to the strength that the Toyota teams have shown at the horsepower tracks, Denny Hamlin has to be considered among the outright favorites going into Sunday. Simply put, Hamlin has been among the best drivers throughout the season and the best Toyota driver at the horsepower venues. With that being said, Tyler Reddick is likely trending into a similar probability range due to his dominance shown throughout the weekend. Reddick has always performed well at high horsepower venues. Needless to say, Reddick and Hamlin are among the deserving favorites going into Sunday!

Aside from the speed and driver perspective, I expect this event to turn into a race for track position. For that reason, I believe William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Austin Cindric are among the drivers that are showing the most value based on current betting odds. Both Byron and Keselowski have shown good speed in recent weeks and are coming off relatively strong performances at Pocono. Meanwhile, Cindric may be considered a legitimate dark horse that has more realistic value in H2H formats. Chris Buescher, Cindric, and Hocevar appear to be among the names that are trending in the right direction going into Sunday and may be worthy of prop bet/H2H consideration!

Draftkings Brickyard 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 Brickyard 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +450 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +450 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1600 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Bubba Wallace -115 over Michael McDowell (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +600 wins Group B (Reddick, Elliott, Byron)(.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Alex Bowman +135 over Brad Keselowski
Chris Buescher +100 over Ty Gibbs
Risking 1 unit to win: +370