2024 BetRivers 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 27th, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Dover Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series teams will visit the Monster Mile at Dover Motor Speedway this weekend for back to back days of racing. Last week, Jesse Love earned his first career Xfinity Series win at Talladega after holding off the field in overtime with just enough fuel to seal the victory. Love officially became the 7th different winner in the Xfinity Series this season and the 4th driver to lock themselves into the playoffs. On Saturday, there will be several more drivers battling for the opportunity to earn their first win of the season when the green flag waves for the BetRivers 200!

For anyone unfamiliar with racing at the Monster Mile, Dover Motor Speedway is an extremely fast 1-mile racetrack with a concrete surface and high-banking. The recipe for success at Dover includes a little bit of everything. Drivers will need a fast car that handles well and will also need to possess the skill set to drive their car on the edge throughout 200 miles of racing. Typically, Dover yields green flag racing which can also put an emphasis on long-run speed which was the case in last year’s race which saw Ryan Truex earn his 1st career victory. This week Truex returns to the #20 team with Joe Gibbs Racing in hopes for an encore performance for just his 5th start of the season.

While Truex promises to be a contender, I would say Friday’s on-track activities yielded many different drivers to consider for tomorrow’s BetRivers 200. Specifically, Brandon Jones emerged as one of the outright favorites after posting the fastest lap in both practice and qualifying. Jones won the pole with a fast lap of 156.863mph which was his 3rd career pole at the Monster Mile. Despite the 3 career poles, Jones has just 1 top 5 finish in 13 career starts at Dover but appears to have one of the fastest cars in the field. With that being said, there are several drivers that are within striking distance for tomorrow’s 200 lap event which makes this race somewhat difficult to handicap.

Dover – Betting Notes

• Justin Allgaier leads all active drivers with 2 career wins at Dover.
• Cole Custer and Ryan Truex are also former winners at Dover. Truex is the defending winner.
• Justin Allgaier has finished 3rd or better in 8 of the last 9 races at Dover.
• AJ Allmendinger (3 career starts) and Austin Hill (2 career starts) are the only drivers in the field with a career 100+ average driver rating.
• Cole Custer has finished 8th or better in 7 of 8 career starts at Dover.
• Brand Jones has just 1 top 5 finish and a 16.7 average finishing position through 13 career starts at Dover.
• Despite having one of the highest average driver ratings in the field, AJ Allmendinger has never led a lap at Dover.
• There have been 6 cautions or less in 7 of the last 8 races at Dover.
• The race winner has started inside the top 8 positions in 23 of the last 25 races at Dover.

Practice Observations

As stated earlier, Brandon Jones posted the fastest lap in practice on Friday with a speed of 154.208mph. Jones appeared to have strong fire off speed which was also the case for Sheldon Creed who was lightning fast early in Friday’s practice. Once the first few laps were completed, I believe we started to see more traditional track conditions which we will see on Saturday. During that time, I observed raw laps time very closely and by the end of the session I thought the likes of Ryan Truex and Justin Allgaier had emerged as the fastest cars on the track especially on the longer runs. In reality, that should be no surprise to bettors because both drivers have been incredibly good at Dover in recent years. Despite the surprise factor, I thought Truex and Allgaier were significantly better than the field at the later stages of practice.

With those things in mind, I will also make note that there were numerous drivers in close proximity on the shorter runs. I mentioned the early speed from Brandon Jones and Sheldon Creed above. I would also mention the speed from guys like AJ Allmendinger and Austin Hill who appeared to be very competitive as well. Needless to say, I believe we are going to see some very competitive racing at the front of the field on Saturday especially when you mix in the talents of Chandler Smith, Cole Custer, Riley Herbst, and others who will likely race better than they practiced on Friday. As a result, this race will likely be top heavy with track position being very important especially if we don’t get the long green flag runs that we expect. If that does not happen, there are many drivers that have the short-run speed to compete!

Betting Targets

Since I believe the top 6-8 guys are so close in terms of short-run speed, I am not sure how much true betting value we are going to find among the top drivers, especially in the form of H2H match-ups. With that being said, I do believe Ryan Truex and Justin Allgaier will be the drivers to beat. Both drivers are built for long run speed which we see often at Dover. Truex did not have a great qualifying effort and will be starting from the 12th position. Perhaps Truex has the most betting value but I would not want to leave Allgaier off of my betting lineup considering how consistently strong he has been at Dover throughout his career. Allgaier has 2 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 3 different 3rd place finishes in his last 10 starts at the Monster Mile which is simply phenomenal.

Because this race is top heavy and rarely provides opportunities for surprise finishes to warrant taking prop bets, there are reasons to be very conservative in this race from a betting perspective. If we are to go deeper into the field, perhaps we can find potential betting targets in the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Ryan Sieg, and Carson Kvapil. Eventhough Allmendinger is in the upper echelon of drivers, I believe his knack for getting around the Monster Mile is somewhat underrated which yields potential value in H2H formats. Meanwhile, Sieg and Kvapil offer deeper H2H and fantasy options. Kvapil is an ideal fantasy candidate after a poor qualifying effort. Kvapil finished 4th at Martinsville in his 1st career start in the Xfinity Series with J.R Motorsports.

While I’m not sure Kvapil’s ceiling is quite that high for Saturday, I do believe he will race forward from his 26th starting spot especially after an impressive ARCA performance to help with his experience on Friday. Lastly, Ryan Sieg is a guy that I have mentioned multiple times in recent weeks because he is performing well. Sieg has shown tons of speed among the intermediate drivers and has always performed well at Dover. For those reasons, Sieg returns as a potential betting target in H2H and prop formats. If you happen to be looking for even deeper options for fantasy purposes, consider Jeb Burton, Corey Heim, and Shane Van Gisbergen as drivers that should move forward from their starting positions on Saturday.

Draftkings BetRivers 200 Optimal Lineup

2024 BetRivers 200 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Justin Allgaier +250 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Hill -115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +375 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)