Categories: NASCAR Betting

2024 BetMGM 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 25th, 2024. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

Last night, the Craftsman Truck Series delivered an exciting and entertaining opening act to the greatest weekend in motorsports. In the end, Nick Sanchez emerged as the somewhat surprise winner thanks to a plethora of late race strategy and nail biting restarts. Fortunately, we had Nick Sanchez on our betting card and escaped Friday night’s NC Education Lottery 200 with a few units of profit. On Saturday, things will perhaps get even tougher when the Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the BetMGM 300 at Charlotte Motor Speedway which will feature a star-studded lineup as this exciting weekend of racing continues!

If you have yet to catch a glimpse of the entry list for the BetMGM 300, it is going to be a good one. Along with the Xfinity Series regulars, Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, and Noah Gragson will all be stepping down from their Cup Series roles to see a trophy at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Gibbs will make his 2nd start of the season with the #20 at Joe Gibbs Racing, Rowdy will step into the #33 for Richard Childress Racing, Elliott steps into the #17 for Hendrick Motorsports, and Noah Gragson will step into the #30 car for Rette Jones Racing which will make their Xfinity Series debut this weekend. Needless to say when you combine these names with the numerous full-time talents in the Xfinity Series, we have the recipe for another exciting event.

While I am looking forward to this race intensively from a spectator standpoint, I am proceeding with extreme caution from a handicapping perspective. All of the Cup Series drivers that I mentioned above are climbing into the seats of cars that they have rarely driven and the majority are part-time teams with the exception of the #20 team with Gibbs. Therefore despite having many big names in Saturday’s race, it’s hard to determine if they will truly be the guys to beat. Perhaps the lone exception to that argument is Ty Gibbs who returns to a very successful #20 team and flexed his muscle on Friday by winning the pole for the BetMGM 300. As a result, Gibbs has emerged as the overall betting favorite in what is expected to be a very competitive field.

Handicapping Strategy

Before Friday’s Truck Series event, I spent quite a bit of time discussing the fact that the Truck Series has frequented 4 different 1.5 mile intermediate speedways this season and we analyzed the in-season performance trends to help gauge potential expectations. For Saturday’s BetMGM 300, I’m not sure if that same strategy will work because the Xfinity Series has just 3 races on 1.5 mile speedways this season and in reality that number should only be “2” because Atlanta is in the “superspeedway” category. Therefore, we have not quite had enough data to establish a true trend line.

To complicate matters further as I alluded to above, we have several drivers in part-time roles on Saturday with part-time teams whose performance is hard to predict because they are not competing on an every week basis. For these reasons, I believe we should be very conservative with the confidence of our expectations. Not to mention, betting odds have been downright disappointing throughout the week leading up to this race with minimal betting value on the top 6-7 guys. If everyone recalls, I selected Nick Sanchez who hit the race win last night but even in the NC Education Lottery 200 preview; I was adamant on the fact that Sanchez was overvalued. I am seeing a lot of similar angles again for this race which means we must not give away any unnecessary risk since odds-makers are making things extremely difficult yet again for Saturday’s BetMGM 300.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

As I mentioned above, Ty Gibbs won the pole for Saturday’s BetMGM 300 will a fast lap of 177.194mph. Gibbs beat out Kyle Busch and Chandler Smith for the top spot in qualifying. Meanwhile guys like Noah Gragson (18th), Riley Herbst (19th), and Chase Elliott (30th) were among the drivers who had disappointing qualifying efforts. However, I personally would not consider Gragson’s qualifying effort “poor” by any means because he is with a brand new, somewhat inferior, race team. However, Gragson has been overvalued all week simply based on his name brand and we may use that to fade him in match-ups if given the right opportunity.

Before qualifying, I watched practice closely in an attempt to identify any noteworthy observations. The biggest noteworthy observation that I have from practice is the fact that Ty Gibbs appeared “dominant.” Gibbs led every statistical category in practice and was about 2 tenths better than the field while seemingly getting strong on the longer runs. Needless to say, that could be trouble for the competition on Saturday. Kyle Busch also showed speed despite the fact he did not run as many laps as some drivers which may not be a great sign from the “handling” side of the equation. Justin Allgaier and Chandler Smith were the other drivers that I thought showed speed that was within striking distance. Other drivers that seemed to be trending well past pre-session betting odds included the likes of Jeb Burton and Ryan Sieg. It’s worth noting that Sieg nearly won at Texas earlier this year and has shown very competitive speed for much of the season!

Betting Targets

Based on how dominant Gibbs was in practice, I am going to try to get Gibbs in a parlay perhaps with the 2nd leg aimed at Sunday’s Coca Cola 600. While Gibbs’ betting odds are not great for single bet action, we can use him as a parlay to help yield some additional value for some of the big favorites on Sunday, like Kyle Larson who has been downright phenomenal on the 1.5 mile speedways this season. With that being said, we obviously want to identify some guys with better value to put on our betting card. Kyle Busch definitely appears to have contending speed but does not have any value whatsoever. Instead, I believe the best pivot options against the favorites are Justin Allgaier and Chandler Smith who both also have the highest average driver ratings from the prior two races this season on a true 1.5 mile speedway at Las Vegas and Texas.

In terms of H2H options, I will likely be looking for positive ways to fade Noah Gragson if possible on Saturday. I just don’t believe the #30 team has the equipment/speed to match the name brand and talent built around Gragson’s reputation and that is the only reason his betting odds are still relatively low. For actual H2H betting targets, Sam Mayer, AJ Allmendinger, and Ryan Sieg are the guys that I believe have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. If we can find Sieg in match-ups, I really like his upside. We hit a huge prop bet (Top 5) with Sieg back at Texas and this is another track where he can put together a quality run. The only reason I am not pulling the trigger on another top 5 prop bet is because of the deep field. With that being said, expect Sieg, Chase Elliott, and Parker Kligerman to rebound from disappointing qualifying efforts on Saturday which makes all of those drivers ideal fantasy targets!