2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 21st, 2024. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: USA

The final race in the opening round of the Cup Series playoffs will culminate at the Last Great Colosseum on Saturday for the infamous Bass Pro Shops Night Race to determine the drivers that will continue to battle for a championship over the next few weeks. As things currently stand, there are some huge names that are in jeopardy of a first round exit which includes the likes of Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, Brad Keselowski, and even others that are higher in the standings if they fail to capture stage points and/or have disastrous results. Needless to say, the intensity for the championship will combine with the intensity of racing at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday in what can only be described as one of the most exciting races of the season!

Back in the spring, Bristol Motor Speedway delivered one of the most intriguing and head scratching races of the season. For those that remember, “tires” were the story of the Food City 500 back in the spring as tires were wearing out, blowing, and failing every 30-40 laps. After numerous cautions and tire failures, NASCAR seemingly stopped throwing cautions at the mere sight of tire failures which led to an entertaining finale to the race as cars limped around the track trying to manage their equipment. In the end, Denny Hamlin conquered the tire issues to capture his 2nd straight victory at Bristol. Ironically, Hamlin is one of those drivers that desperately need a strong run on Saturday to keep the playoff hopes alive and it will be interesting to see if tire wear continues to be one of the major storylines.

For those wondering what to expect on Saturday, it is very important to mention that GoodYear has brought back the exact same tire formula that was used in the spring. The extreme tire wear was popular among race fans while arguably excessive to others. GoodYear held a test with this same tire compound in July which produced similar tire fall off, in terms of speed, without the tire failures that NASCAR experienced during the spring. Needless to say, the hope is that Saturday’s race will produce the same where tire wear will need to be managed but less likely to outright fail so early during green flag runs. Not to mention, Cup Series teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this tire formula and perhaps have a better gauge of setups needed to avoid tire wear. With that being said, it will still be very interesting to see the teams that may gamble with the setups and/or if any tire issues will shape the playoff picture!

Bristol – Betting Notes

• Kyle Bush has the most victories (8) at Bristol among active drivers.
• Denny Hamlin (4), Brad Keselowski (3), Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson, and Chris Buescher are all former winners at Bristol.
• Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are tied for the best average finishing position (11.6) among active drivers at Bristol.
• Kyle Larson has finished in the Top 5 in the last 3 races at Bristol with the Next Gen Car.
• Chris Buescher has a victory and finished in the Top 7 in the last 3 races at Bristol with the Next Gen Car.
• Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher have produced 100+ average driver ratings in the last 3 races at Bristol with the Next Gen Car.
• Ryan Blaney’s best finish at Bristol in the Next Gen Car is 16th.
• Tyler Reddick’s best finish at Bristol in the Next Gen Car is 15th.
• Joey Logano and Kyle Busch have failed to reach a 70.0 average driver rating in each of the last 3 races at Bristol with the Next Gen Car.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in 19 of the last 21 races at Bristol.
• The eventual race winner has started from the Top 5 positions in 6 of the last 7 races at Bristol.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Following Friday’s on-track sessions, Alex Bowman continued a stellar start to the playoffs by winning the pole for Saturday’s Bristol Night Race. Bowman laid down a lap of 126.720mph to capture the first pole of his career at Bristol and the first pole of the season for the #48 team. Behind Bowman, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Carson Hocevar, Denny Hamlin, Corey LaJoie, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 10 starting positions. The strong qualifying efforts from Byron, Truex, and Hamlin were critical considering those drivers desperately need a strong points performance going Saturday to keep their playoffs hopes alive.

Of course single lap speed is a very small portion of the formula needed to win at Bristol and that is why I will put more attention towards practice observations as opposed to qualifying results. In practice on Friday, Ryan Blaney was the driver that stood out to me while observing raw lap times. Blaney has historically struggled at Bristol but displayed really solid lap times throughout Friday’s practice session. With that being said, Kyle Larson appeared to be the best car overall. Larson not only displayed some of the best consecutive lap averages but his car showed the least amount of fall-off in the entire field making him a prime favorite going into Saturday. Other drivers that also appeared really strong include the likes of William Byron, Alex Bowman, and Christopher Bell. Additionally, I would throw out notable mentions to Corey LaJoie, Justin Haley, and Carson Hocevar who all appeared to be trending well above expectations from a practice standpoint.

Betting Targets

If you look across all handicapping metrics, Kyle Larson’s name stands out above all others especially when we include Friday’s practice/qualifying observations which showed Larson with blazing fast speed and minimal tire fall off. As a result, I believe Larson is the clear driver to beat going into Saturday. However, the problem with favorites in the Next Gen Car is the margin back to the other competitors remains very small. Considering passing can be difficult at Bristol, we must also consider the likelihood that drivers can take advantage of track position given the opportunity. While most people would like to look at practice speeds to find potential betting targets, I don’t think we can overlook some of the other handicapping metrics including track history and dynamic averages on the short tracks. When we consider those metrics, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin are the names that are checking enough of the boxes to also warrant betting consideration. Personally, I prefer Bell as the best choice because Hamlin will have to chase stage points if cautions fly prior to the stage breaks.

There are a lot of drivers within the intermediate betting range that are capable of striking gold on Saturday. However, I believe Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher may be some of the sharpest options especially in H2H formats. As stated earlier, Buescher has never finished worse than 7th at Bristol in the Next Gen Car and is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the year at Watkins Glen. Meanwhile, Gibbs is a very underrated talent at Bristol that always seems to run well. In fact, Gibbs won both stages back in the spring race and should march forward from his 13th place qualifying effort. Other drivers that appear poised to shatter their current projections include a relatively large list of names like Michael McDowell (finished no worse than 11th at Bristol in Next Gen Car), Corey LaJoie (best streak of his career), and AJ Allmendinger (very underrated Bristol talent). All 3 of those guys could be potentially pursued in prop bet formats that yield high upside!

2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Optimal Lineup

2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +600 (1 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1200 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1800 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson +200 wins Group 1 (Hamlin, Bell, Blaney) (2 units)
Ross Chastain -115 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Carson Hocevar +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Any driver to win both stage 1 and 2 +800 (.5 unit)