2024 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 14th, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

For the 2nd time in the last month, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing in the Lonestar State when the green flag waves for Sunday’s AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Just a few weeks ago, William Byron captured a victory at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas in what was the first road course event of the season. This week the Cup Series will turn their attention to the 1.5 mile oval in Fort Worth for racing at Texas Motor Speedway. As many are aware, the Next Gen Car has produced tremendous racing at the intermediate layouts and we hope that continues for Sunday’s AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400!

Since the Next Gen Car debuted at Texas in 2022, it has produced chaotic racing which has yielded a total of 27 cautions through two races. In reality, that statistic likely has nothing to do with the racecar and perhaps is moreso relative to the track conditions. Texas Motor Speedway was repaved and reconfigured back in 2017. The reconfiguration resulted in reduced banking in turns 1-2 with the old high banking remaining in turns 3-4. The end result is a racetrack that produces very fast speed in turns 3-4 and that speed makes things extremely tricky in turns 1-2 with less banking and overall grip. This combination has led to a lot of accidents and wild racing which will likely be the case again on Sunday.

With the reduced banking in turns 1-2, it has also made passing more difficult especially towards the front of the field. As a result, track position will be extremely important in this race. Typically, I never put too much focus on starting positions because I have found that qualifying results can be very misleading when it comes to handicapping. However, this is a track where you have to consider the track position game into the handicapping equation because it is so difficult to drive through the field. Needless to say, we will look at practice results, starting positions, and also look at some historical data to help guide us towards some profitable betting predictions!

Texas – Betting Notes

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 4 victories at Texas.
• Denny Hamlin (3), Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Joey Logano, and William Byron are former winners at Texas.
• Chase Briscoe has the best average finishing position (10.0) among active drivers through 3 career starts.
• Joey Logano has the best average finish (10.3) among active drivers over the last 10 races at Texas (minimum 5 starts).
• Christopher Bell has finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 starts at Texas.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 9th or better in 5 straight races at Texas.
• Alex Bowman has just two top 10 finishes in 14 career starts at Texas.
• Michael McDowell has never finished in the top 10 in 25 career starts at Texas.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.
• There have been 10 or more cautions in 5 of the last 6 races at Texas.

Dynamic Averages

The majority of 1.5 mile speedways are very dependent upon raw speed through horsepower, chassis, and aerodynamics. As a result, it’s always important to check our dynamic averages at the 1.5 mile speedways to see how drivers/teams have trended because these trends have a higher likelihood of continuing as opposed to other venue types. With that being said, Kyle Larson’s outrageous 128.0 average driver rating is among the best we have seen in our dynamic averages. Larson has won 2 of the last 3 races at 1.5 mile speedways and has already won the pole for Sunday’s AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Behind Larson who is obviously once again a deserving favorite, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney have all posted stellar stats at the 1.5 mile tracks. If you look at the way the Toyota teams have performed this season, perhaps Hamlin and Reddick are even more appealing. Meanwhile, I would also call out noteworthy observations that include surprising underwhelming performance trends from big names like Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr among others.

Practice Observations

During Saturday’s practice, I thought Larson and Reddick emerged as the best two cars in the field. We have discussed Larson’s success above in our dynamic averages but Reddick has been nearly as impressive in recent races on 1.5 mile speedways. Needless to say, Reddick’s speed in practice was no surprise. However, I was slightly surprised with the speed from all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. Despite trailing the Toyota teams in performance this year, Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott all appeared to have speed capable of contending this weekend. Elliott’s lap times showed the least amount of fall off from everyone I observed.

In some ways, I’m starting to believe the Chevrolet teams may have found some speed going into the weekend. Along with the Hendrick Motorsports cars, the TrackHouse Racing Chevrolet duo of Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez also flexed solid speed as well. Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic that the Chevrolet teams will perform well on Sunday. Meanwhile, I would still say the Toyotas were strong, especially Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and Bubba Wallace. On the other end of the spectrum, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr, and Alex Bowman were among the names that appeared “off” in practice and perhaps are trending in the wrong direction going into Sunday’s race.

Betting Targets

The betting odds for Larson tomorrow are downright nasty and I can’t blame sportsbooks due to all the indicators that point to Larson being one of the dominant cars on Sunday. As a result, we will be forced to look for slightly better betting value which makes drivers like Tyler Reddick and William Byron solid pivot options against the outright favorite. While Byron won last week at Martinsville, he is also the defending winner of the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 and seems to have everything clicking at the moment. Therefore, I would not shy away from Byron simply because he has already amassed 3 wins this early in the season.

Behind the top names, I think guys like Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, and Ross Chastain are all worthy of underdog consideration. I would also throw names like Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe as even deeper long shots that have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. Personally, I believe Briscoe and Wallace are sharp H2H options. Wallace has been extremely fast this season and led a ton of laps at Texas last year. Meanwhile, Briscoe has always run well at Texas despite having poor equipment over the years. While Stewart-Haas Racing has not shown winning speed, Briscoe is capable of running upfront and may be worth prop bet consideration. Keep in mind, this race will be about track position so all of our bets should remain conservative.

2024 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +400 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1600 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1600 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +2800 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -135 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -115 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1200 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Daniel Suarez +135 over Brad Keselowski
Chase Elliott +150 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1 unit to win: +485