2024 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 13th, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

Last week, Aric Almirola became the 5th different winner in the Xfinity Series this season by winning the Dude Wipes 250 at Martinsville Speedway. Almirola instantly becomes the newest edition to part-time drivers which have excelled to start the 2024 Xfinity Series campaign. In fact, 3 of the 5 different winners this season stem from part-time rides from current and former Cup Series drivers. The only two drivers to win races this season that are in the Xfinity Series championship race include the likes of Austin Hill and Chandler Smith who have both captured two victories. On Saturday, perhaps we will have our biggest opportunity to see another first-time winner when the green flag drops for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway.

As many are aware, Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile cookie-cutter venue that was repaved and reconfigured back in 2017. The reconfiguration led to reduced banking in turns 1-2 which has essentially become the wicked part of the racetrack where it is difficult for drivers to keep their foot in the throttle without losing rear grip. We saw several wrecks in the opening Truck Series practice on Friday which exploited that narrative. While Xfinity Series teams and drivers had a relatively clean practice, rest assured this will be one of the more difficult 1.5 mile tracks to navigate in race conditions and that will favor the most talented drivers in Saturday’s field.

While driver input will be important, speed is also critically important at any 1.5 mile speedway and so far this season the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have easily been the best in terms of pure speed. J.R Motorsports and the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have been solid in the grand scheme of things however none of those teams have produced a winner to this point in the season. However, both the J.R. Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing cars looked strong in Friday’s Xfinity Series practice and perhaps have enough speed to contend for a victory on Saturday. We will discuss all of the drivers that are worthy of consideration throughout different betting formats as we attempt to find the best betting opportunities for Saturday’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300.

Handicapping Strategy

Our handicapping strategy throughout this weekend’s races at Texas will be mildly conservative across all series. The reason for the conservativeness is relatively simple because we have not identified any defined trends on the intermediate tracks this season because there has only been one prior race venue at a 1.5 mile speedway (Las Vegas) so far this season. We simply need more races, on similar layouts, to feel fully confident in our numerous handicapping angles. For that reason, we will move forward with a conservative approach this weekend which is primarily focused on betting value.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

In qualifying, Jesse Love emerged from on-track activities with his 3rd pole of the season with a fast lap of 29.115 seconds. Love edged out Cole Custer, Taylor Gray, Chandler Smith, and Justin Allgaier who were all within .06 of the leader. Smith actually appeared to have a pole winner but brushed the wall coming to the checkered flag on his qualifying lap. Meanwhile, Ryan Truex, AJ Allmendinger, Sammy Smith, and Sam Mayer were among the others that rounded out the top 10. Notable drivers that had somewhat disappointing qualifying efforts included Sheldon Creed, Parker Retzlaff, and Shane Van Gisbergen.

In practice on Friday, I mentioned earlier that things were pretty clean without any accidents or notable struggles. Justin Allgaier posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 180.589mph. Allgaier’s top speed was solidified by his long-run speed which was among the best in the field as well. Cole Custer was the only driver that was arguably better on the speed charts but I would give Allgaier the overall top nod due to track conditions. Behind those two drivers, I thought Chandler Smith displayed excellent long-run speed and he has obviously been the most impressive driver this season which means he is worthy of “favorite” status yet again this week.

Behind those 3 drivers, I did not get an extremely confident notion that any others would undeniably contend for the victory based solely on lap times. I thought Ryan Sieg, Taylor Gray, and Ryan Truex were among the drivers that really impressed. Sieg has been strong this year at the horsepower tracks and he is a guy that has a much higher ceiling than current betting odds suggest. Meanwhile, Gray and Truex have the luxury of piloting JGR equipment this weekend which obviously elevates their ceilings. Other drivers that appeared to be solid on the speed charts, despite not running nearly as many laps, included both AJ Allmendinger and Sheldon Creed. Meanwhile the drivers that appeared to be on the other end of the spectrum and seemingly trending in the wrong direction included the likes of Brandon Jones, Parker Kligerman, and Shane Van Gisbergen.

Betting Targets

Before qualifying concluded, I had pegged Chandler Smith as the fastest guy in town, especially with the speed he displayed at the end of Friday’s practice. Smith was posted laps 2-3 tenths over everyone at the end of practice and appeared to be trending in that direction before brushing the wall in qualifying. If we can find a number that works, Smith should be the clear #1 going into Saturday. Behind Smith, I seem to believe that Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer are the most likely contenders for a victory. However, perhaps we could see some surprise performances from the likes of Jesse Love and Riley Herbst who both appear to be trending in a positive direction.

It appears that futures (win) betting odds are going to be very saturated for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Texas which will force us to look for value deeper in the field in H2H formats. Taylor Gray and Ryan Sieg are my favorite betting targets in H2H and prop bet formats. Gray has the luxury of piloting the #19 car for JGR which has been extremely fast and I am a big believer in Gray’s talent level. I believe the young driver has legitimate top 5 upside on Saturday which is a much higher legitimate upside than others with similar betting odds. Ryan Sieg is another driver that I had pegged from early week handicapping. Sieg raced inside the top 10 the entire race at Las Vegas and has shown excellent raw speed at the horsepower tracks. Following a semi-disappointing qualifying effort, Sieg has enough value for both H2H and prop bet consideration.

Outside of betting, I would consider Sheldon Creed, Corey Heim, and Parker Retzlaff as solid fantasy options as I expect those drivers to move forward from their starting positions.

2024 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Chandler Smith +300 (1.5 units)
Cole Custer +500 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +1400 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer -130 over Austin Hill (2 units)
Sheldon Creed +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Chandler Smith -115 over Justin Allgaier
Toyota +145 wins AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400

Risking 1 unit to win: +358